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Grand National
19 points @ 25/1 (B365) Teaforthree* (min 20/1)Value Is Everything3:35 Newbury
18 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Swing Bowler* (min 25/1)(£35 available)Value Is Everything3:35 Newbury
18 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Swing Bowler* (min 25/1)(£35 available)31 points @ 12/1 (L) Sign Of A Victory* (min 9/1)
16 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bordoni* (min 28/1)Value Is Everything3:35 Newbury
18 points @ 37/1 (betfair) Swing Bowler* (min 25/1)(£35 available)31 points @ 12/1 (L) Sign Of A Victory* (min 9/1)
16 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bordoni* (min 28/1)12 points @ 22/1 (betfair) Jolly’s Cracked It* (min 22/1)(£67 available)
11 points @ 20/1 (betfair) Goodwood Mirage* (min 20/1)(£268 available)
savers:
8 points @ 12/1 (betfair) On Tour (min 12/1)(£294 available)
4 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Lightentertainment (min 25/1)(£154 available)Value Is EverythingAlready Backed:
Cheltenham Gold Cup
19 points @ 25/1 (FD) Smad Place*
21 points @ 20/1 (FD) OFaolains Boy*
14 points @ 50/1 (B365) Holywell*
saver:
20 points @ 3/1 (B365 NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco ContiNow:
18 points @ 33/1 (B365 NRNB, BOG) Taquin Du Seuil* (min 25/1
extra saver:
4 points @ 3/1 (B365, NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco Conti (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingWith Mr Mole winning, 1 out of 3 (races) for me today, a small +25.33 profit (thanks also to A Sign Of A Victory’s non-participation).
Value Is EverythingAlready Backed:
Cheltenham Gold Cup
19 points @ 25/1 (FD) Smad Place*
21 points @ 20/1 (FD) OFaolains Boy*
14 points @ 50/1 (B365) Holywell*
saver:
20 points @ 3/1 (B365 NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco ContiNow:
18 points @ 33/1 (B365 NRNB, BOG) Taquin Du Seuil* (min 25/1
extra saver:
4 points @ 3/1 (B365, NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco Conti (min 3/1)17 points @ 12/1 (B365,NRMB,BOG) Coneygree* (min 10/1)
10 points @ 16/1 (L, all in) Coneygree*Value Is EverythingAlready Backed:
Cheltenham Gold Cup
19 points @ 25/1 (FD) Smad Place*
21 points @ 20/1 (FD) OFaolains Boy*
14 points @ 50/1 (B365) Holywell*
saver:
20 points @ 3/1 (B365 NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco ContiNow:
18 points @ 33/1 (B365 NRNB, BOG) Taquin Du Seuil* (min 25/1
extra saver:
4 points @ 3/1 (B365, NRNB, BOG) Silviniaco Conti (min 3/1)17 points @ 12/1 (B365,NRMB,BOG) Coneygree* (min 10/1)
10 points @ 16/1 (L, all in) Coneygree*36 points @ 100/30 (PP, BOG) Silviniaco Conti* (min 5/2)
(I’ll be looking to get out of all of my Smad Place bet nearer the time (possibly at a slight loss) and possibly also lay some of the Holywell bet off).
Value Is EverythingI don’t think the Denman Chase performance is quite as good as the handicapper believes (Houblon below form on ground less testing than the official). However, it was still a cracking performance from a novice to beat Unioniste by that far. Coneygree has already put up a performance within striking distance of all but one of his potential Gold Cup rivals. If maintaining the improvement I expect Coneygree to finish in the frame. Only one horse (Silvi) has to perform badly and he’s in with a great chance of winning! Extra distance likely to suit and much more likely to get an easier lead in the Gold Cup than RSA (a massive factor imo). Might be different if Kings Palace were a non-runner in the latter, but as it stands – expect Bradstocks to go for the big one.
Some point to Silviniaco Conti not liking Cheltenham, that’s a big assumption to make. Similar feeling about Sire De Grugy that allowed him to be way overpriced in the 2014 Champion Chase. I’d have thought rather than "Cheltenham", it’s slightly more likely Silvi is not at best in the Spring these days and/or needs a surface on the soft side of good. In 2013 when coming down, too far out to be dogmatic about probable finishing position but going well at the time (2nd?). Last year looked all over the winner coming to the last before swerving all over the place and giving the race away. But almost did the same again at Aintree. Form of the Liverpool race not much better either. True he beat Dynaste, but only had a total of 3 lengths to spare over Argocat. And, on a line through First Lieutenant (seemed to run as well at Aintree as Punchestown) Silvi only comes out 1/2 a length better than Boston Bob. We know he’s better than that. So (for me) it’s difficult to see a "Cheltenham factor". Certainly no stamina worries the way he’s finished races this term. Cheek pieces seem to have settled last year’s waywardness (at least for now). Silviniaco Conti’s best form is so much better than the rest, no Cue Card, no Menorah, no Dynaste, no Champagne Fever, what is there to beat? Must be a main bet now @ 100/30 nrnb.
Value Is EverythingSome point to Silviniaco Conti not liking Cheltenham, that’s a big assumption to make. Similar feeling about Sire De Grugy that allowed him to be way overpriced in the 2014 Champion Chase. I’d have thought rather than "Cheltenham", it’s slightly more likely Silvi is not at best in the Spring these days and/or needs a surface on the soft side of good. In 2013 when coming down, too far out to be dogmatic about probable finishing position but going well at the time (2nd?). Last year looked all over the winner coming to the last before swerving all over the place and giving the race away. But almost did the same again at Aintree. Form of the Liverpool race not much better either. True he beat Dynaste, but only had a total of 3 lengths to spare over Argocat. And, on a line through First Lieutenant (seemed to run as well at Aintree as Punchestown) Silvi only comes out 1/2 a length better than Boston Bob. We know he’s better than that. So (for me) it’s difficult to see a "Cheltenham factor". Certainly no stamina worries the way he’s finished races this term. Cheek pieces seem to have settled last year’s waywardness (at least for now). Silviniaco Conti’s best form is so much better than the rest, no Cue Card, no Menorah, no Dynaste, no Champagne Fever, what is there to beat? Must be a main bet now @ 100/30 nrnb.
While it is not possible to say Silviniaco Conti does not like Cheltenham, it is possible to say he has not achieved his best for there. There may have been reasons for his waywardness last year, but he basically looked like a horse whose tank had run empty.
No Cue Card, no Menorah, no Dynaste, no Champagne Fever, what have these four horses got in common? They’re all better at trips short of three miles.
I don’t buy the theory that Silviniaco Conti is this out and out grinder. He has looked a stout stayer over three miles in recent seasons but he has been primarily racing against doubtful stayers.
Another theory I don’t buy is that the cheek pieces will bring about improvement on last year’s performance. Looking back at last year’s race he did not look like a horse who needed cheek pieces: he travelled and jumped beautifully throughout and you’d have thought he might even do too much if he had cheek pieces on.
I’d have doubts about him getting home and think 100/30 is poor value myself.
Don’t forget S Conti had serious stomach ulcers last year. This alone would explain his poor spring form. However, apparently he prefers flat tracks anyway.
"I think you need to have a run to win the Betfair. Last year we needed the run. There is no point going into these big races needing a run. I’ve got it in the back of my mind that he saves his best form for flat tracks.
"After Christmas we’ll freshen him up for the Gold Cup. We found out after the Gold Cup last year that he had a few problems and after tests it turned out he was suffering from stomach ulcers.”
Don’t forget S Conti had serious stomach ulcers last year. This alone would explain his poor spring form. However, apparently he prefers flat tracks anyway.
"I think you need to have a run to win the Betfair. Last year we needed the run. There is no point going into these big races needing a run. I’ve got it in the back of my mind that he saves his best form for flat tracks.
"After Christmas we’ll freshen him up for the Gold Cup. We found out after the Gold Cup last year that he had a few problems and after tests it turned out he was suffering from stomach ulcers.”
Nicholls says a lot of things Kasparov. After the Betfair, blamed not having a Gold Cup prep for the poor Cheltenham performance; but by the time he’d won the King George that had been forgotten about. I don’t really buy the ulcers thing. If it was ulcers then why use cheek pieces? Cheek pieces do not cure ulcers. Very few trainers blame the horse’s temperament for losing; seeing it as their fault; so finding a convenient excuse. But for whatever reason, Silvi was wayward at both Cheltenham (undulating) AND Aintree (flat). Therefore, the "best form on flat tracks" (for me) does not make sense either. Travelled so well in Gold Cups of 2013 as well as 2014, so imo it’s unlikely something unique to last year.
Seems to me the most likely reason for the improved displays are cheek pieces.
Value Is EverythingWhile it is not possible to say Silviniaco Conti does not like Cheltenham, it is possible to say he has not achieved his best for there. There may have been reasons for his waywardness last year, but he basically looked like a horse whose tank had run empty.
No Cue Card, no Menorah, no Dynaste, no Champagne Fever, what have these four horses got in common? They’re all better at trips short of three miles.
I don’t buy the theory that Silviniaco Conti is this out and out grinder. He has looked a stout stayer over three miles in recent seasons but he has been primarily racing against doubtful stayers.
Another theory I don’t buy is that the cheek pieces will bring about improvement on last year’s performance. Looking back at last year’s race he did not look like a horse who needed cheek pieces: he travelled and jumped beautifully throughout and you’d have thought he might even do too much if he had cheek pieces on.
I’d have doubts about him getting home and think 100/30 is poor value myself.
Nobody is saying Silviniaco Conti is an "out and out grinder" THM. But the 2014 Gold Cup was nothing to do with not staying. Take a look at the similarities between the finish of the Gold Cup and the shorter Betfred Bowl. At Aintree wandering happens before the last at Liverpool, having time to put it right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrydSESZnCw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHQBxswzdXM
The four horses quoted, Cue Card, menorah, Dynaste and Champagne Fever are all top quality and although one or two Gold Cup rivals could improve – there’s nothing of that quality in the Gold Cup. This thing about beating non-stayers is a red-herring. Menorah put up his best ever performance at 3m1f on very soft ground. Dynaste put up one of his best performances in the King George. Silvi only has to show his form to win. For sure there are a few doubts, but if there were no doubts the quality of form shown would entitle him to odds-on favouritism. At 100/30 the doubts have been greatly exaggerated by the market.
Value Is EverythingWhile it is not possible to say Silviniaco Conti does not like Cheltenham, it is possible to say he has not achieved his best for there. There may have been reasons for his waywardness last year, but he basically looked like a horse whose tank had run empty.
No Cue Card, no Menorah, no Dynaste, no Champagne Fever, what have these four horses got in common? They’re all better at trips short of three miles.
I don’t buy the theory that Silviniaco Conti is this out and out grinder. He has looked a stout stayer over three miles in recent seasons but he has been primarily racing against doubtful stayers.
Another theory I don’t buy is that the cheek pieces will bring about improvement on last year’s performance. Looking back at last year’s race he did not look like a horse who needed cheek pieces: he travelled and jumped beautifully throughout and you’d have thought he might even do too much if he had cheek pieces on.
I’d have doubts about him getting home and think 100/30 is poor value myself.
Nobody is saying Silviniaco Conti is an "out and out grinder" THM. But the 2014 Gold Cup was nothing to do with not staying. Take a look at the similarities between the finish of the Gold Cup and the shorter Betfred Bowl. At Aintree wandering happens before the last at Liverpool, having time to put it right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PrydSESZnCw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHQBxswzdXM
The four horses quoted, Cue Card, menorah, Dynaste and Champagne Fever are all top quality and although one or two Gold Cup rivals could improve – there’s nothing of that quality in the Gold Cup. This thing about beating non-stayers is a red-herring. Menorah put up his best ever performance at 3m1f on very soft ground. Dynaste put up one of his best performances in the King George. Silvi only has to show his form to win. For sure there are a few doubts, but if there were no doubts the quality of form shown would entitle him to odds-on favouritism. At 100/30 the doubts have been greatly exaggerated by the market.
While Menorah and Dynaste have undoubtedly put up good performances over three miles, I believe both are better over shorter trips. You yourself have backed Menorah for the Ryanair over 2m 5f.
Champagne Fever blatantly didn’t get home in the King George imo, while Cue Card is another whose best form is at less than three miles.
Good horses though they are (better than many of the Gold Cup contenders), I doubt any would be placed in a Gold Cup. I don’t believe that looking a strong stayer against these animals actually means a horse is a strong stayer.
I’m not sure he did the same thing at Cheltenham and Aintree. At Aintree he still looked full of running when he ran about approaching the last and just looked quirky, which may be the case, but he ran on stoutly to the line. With the furries on he hasn’t done this. At Cheltenham he just looked out on his feet to me.
While Menorah and Dynaste have undoubtedly put up good performances over three miles, I believe both are better over shorter trips. You yourself have backed Menorah for the Ryanair over 2m 5f.
Champagne Fever blatantly didn’t get home in the King George imo, while Cue Card is another whose best form is at less than three miles.
Wow!
Your opinion of Menorah must be better than mine then THM.
Menorah was only beaten 2 lengths by Silviniaco Conti over 3m1f on heavy ground, 8 lengths clear of the field. Which Menorah performance at shorter trips do you believe is worth a better rating than Haydock?
Do you believe Menorah is a better quality horse than Silviniaco Conti then?I can understand someone believing Menorah would not stay 3m2f110yrds of a Gold Cup; but there is absolutely no evidence of being better at shorter. Yes, "just as good" at 2m5f (which is my hope in backing him for the Ryanair @ 25/1) but not "better".
Same with Dynaste. I can see why someone would oppose Dynaste over 3m1f110yrds on soft ground around Cheltenham because of stamina doubts; I did myself last time out. But there is NO evidence he’s better at shorter. What performance over shorter do you believe worth a better rating than 4 1/2 lengths second to Silviniaco Conti?
Cue Card’s Betfair winning form suggests he stays 3m when not taken on in front. Should not be judged on this season because of his problems…
Champagne Fever only included for potential ability rather than known ability and agree he does not stay.
Anyway, my point was not that these are stayers, my point is there is no "stayer" of a similar quality to those four "non-stayers". ie Unless Bobs Worth can find his best from somewhere or something improves out of all recognition – Silvi is not going to meet anything of the quality he’s been facing recently.
Value Is EverythingGood horses though they are (better than many of the Gold Cup contenders), I doubt any would be placed in a Gold Cup. I don’t believe that looking a strong stayer against these animals actually means a horse is a strong stayer.
I’m not sure he did the same thing at Cheltenham and Aintree. At Aintree he still looked full of running when he ran about approaching the last and just looked quirky, which may be the case, but he ran on stoutly to the line. With the furries on he hasn’t done this. At Cheltenham he just looked out on his feet to me.
Depends what you mean by "strong stayer"? There is no evidence to suggest Silvi will be any better at 3m2f110yrds than he was at 3m. However, imo there’s no evidence of not being as good. Silvi looked "full of running" at both courses when meandering. Coming over the final fence Silvi looked to be going by far the best. My belief Silvi will be just as good over the longer trip has not got anything to do with the horses he’s beaten. More to do with times he’s produced this season at 3m, both over all and powerful final sectionals. Was not stopping at the end of well run 3m races. It was not that he was just slowing down less than non-stayers, he was keeping up a good gallop all the way to the line. My opinion would be the same whatever the opposition, ie against stayers or supposed non-stayers. I’d be more inclined to believe the "furries" have made the difference THM.
We shall agree to disagree, can’t wait till March.
Value Is EverythingThe Charlie Hall was less of a stamina test (Double Ross also came to the fore in this race) and Menorah was better than at Haydock imo. We could go around in circles all day, so best to agree to disagree as you say. The only horse I’ve backed is Holywell @ 50’s and topped up at 14’s after the Christmas races. If he makes it to the race I doubt I’ll back anything else. I’ve outlines my Conti concerns but there’s not much jumps out to take him on with. Good luck
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