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3:35 Warwick
54 points @ 6.2/1 (betfair) Return Spring* (min 5/1)(£1163 available)9 points each way @ 40/1 (Sky) Dark Glacier* (min 33/1)
Savers:
11 points @ 8/1 (B365) Shotgun Paddy (min 8/1)
11 points @ 8/1 (B365) Carruthers (min 8/1)Value Is Everything3:00 Warwick
97 points @ 11/8 (B365) Shantou Bob* (min 5/4)I fancied Warrantor today but he ran a lifeless race in the Lanzarote. The trainer’s wife was on CH4 beforehand, stating that "If there are two horses in the yard who would give their life for you it’s Warrantor and Shantou Bob"
I thought Shantou Bob was bitterly disappointing today and when I checked the yard’s current form I saw they haven’t had a winner this year from 22 runners, with some getting beaten a long way, with an odds-on shot also being beaten 17 lengths.
Just posting for imformation purposes Ginger, no criticism.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
3:00 Ascot
20 points @ 6/1 (B365) Twinlight* (min 11/2)
Betting without Sprinter Sacre:
35 points @ 11/4 (sportsbook) Twinlight* (min 9/4)Place (first 2) saver:
40 points @ 1.4/1 (betfair) Twinlight (min 1.3/1)Value Is Everything1:50 Ascot
41 points @ 4.4/1 (betfair) Bitofapuzzle* (min 4/1)
45 points @ 5.4/1 (betfair) Land Of Vic* (min 5/1)
saver:
12 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Dark Spirit (min 15/2)Value Is Everything3:00 Warwick
97 points @ 11/8 (B365) Shantou Bob* (min 5/4)I fancied Warrantor today but he ran a lifeless race in the Lanzarote. The trainer’s wife was on CH4 beforehand, stating that "If there are two horses in the yard who would give their life for you it’s Warrantor and Shantou Bob"
I thought Shantou Bob was bitterly disappointing today and when I checked the yard’s current form I saw they haven’t had a winner this year from 22 runners, with some getting beaten a long way, with an odds-on shot also being beaten 17 lengths.
Just posting for imformation purposes Ginger, no criticism.
Sorry, my first visit on TRF in some time.
I saw the trainer form before the race David, it was a little off putting to say the least, but thought the price was worth taking the chance. 11/8 about something that started odds-on @ 10/11. That’s over 10% difference. In theory if averaging that then should be making a good profit. Unfortunately, theory doesn’t pay the bills. Just recently backed plenty of horses that have shortened up yet failed to win.
Shantou Bob certainly ran a lifeless race, don’t think Greatrex has had a runner since. Although the winner Three Musketeers won so well anyway that tbh I doubt even a fully fit Shantou Bob would’ve won.
Value Is EverythingGood luck today, you should look into trading the prices Mark?
To be honest I’ve been considering that myself for some time Sam.
Value Is Everything3:00 Ascot
20 points @ 6/1 (B365) Twinlight* (min 11/2)
Betting without Sprinter Sacre:
35 points @ 11/4 (sportsbook) Twinlight* (min 9/4)Place (first 2) saver:
40 points @ 1.4/1 (betfair) Twinlight (min 1.3/1)25 points @ Evens (B365) Sprinter Sacre (min Evens)
Value Is EverythingChampion Chase Cheltenham
60 points @ 6/1 (Boyle) Dodging Bullets* (min 9/2)
I’ve also got a bet on Balder Success somewhere but looks more likely to go for Ryanair at this stage.Value Is EverythingChampion Hurdle Cheltenham
36 points each way @ 6/1 (L) Jezki* (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingChampion Hurdle Cheltenham
36 points each way @ 6/1 (L) Jezki* (min 5/1)Faugheen will be very difficult to beat, but you can keep 5/4 at this early stage. 6/1 with Ladbrokes (or 5/1 BOG and NRNB Bet365 if you’re more cautious) Jezki looks good each way value to me. I backed TNO last year (and MTOY and the unfortunate OC, all a year in advance) it would’ve been close had Master Twister not been hampered. But when they are similar horses at their best; the Brit ran disappointingly at Haydock (despite winning) and the Irish terrier ran well in a race not suited to his style last time – so why is the latter available at twice the price of the former?
Hurricane Fly (even now that he’s not quite the outstanding hurdler he was) is better than Jezki away from Cheltenham. But Jezki is (imo) better at Cheltenham.
Haven’t given up on A Sign Of Victory (he’s somewhere on these pages) hoping for better. But can’t see anything else troubling Jezki for a place.
Value Is EverythingGinge: if that’s the case with Jezki ( and I totally agree, currently he is the value) surely Arctic Fire must be an EW poke at 5 times the odds
Ginge: if that’s the case with Jezki ( and I totally agree, currently he is the value) surely Arctic Fire must be an EW poke at 5 times the odds
Although 25/1 isn’t bad odds Gdc, there are two, possibly three things that personally put me off:
a) I don’t believe that either the winner Hurricane Fly or second Jezki ran to their best. So Arctic Fire has to improve quite a lot again to be in with a chance of a place, let alone winning. Actually, place only might be more attractive for him nearer the day imo.
b) How many horses is Willie Mullins going to run? Has 7 of the first 12 in the betting? Although 2 are probably bound for novice chasers and 1 is more likely for the Mares or World hurdle. I haven’t heard if Arctic Fire is an intended runner. As far as I can see 25/1 is only available at bookies without the NRNB concession. Running intentions I guess will depend a lot on how he runs in the Irish Champion.
c(ish)) Being a little pedantic. If Jezki is @ 6/1 = 14.29% and Arctic Fire @ 25/1 = 3.85%. So 14.29 ‘/, 3.85 = 3.87. Therefore Arctic Fire is under 4 times the odds of Jezki, not 5 times.
I’d also estimate the chances of running to be around 60/40 which needs to be taken in to account. Where as Jezki would only be absent if injured, Arctic Fire might not run even if fully fit. So I know we are comparing one all-in and one NRNB but… If we were talking about comparing 6/1 with the NRNB 20/1 (4.76%) Arctic Fire would only be 3 times the price of Jezki (14.29 ‘/, 4.76 = 3.00).Value Is EverythingRyanair Chase
40 points @ 25/1 (L) Menorah* (min 13/1)Backed Menorah for the King George and failed to fire when stable wasn’t going as well s previously, hit one fence badly and Johnson suspended. Had been waiting for NRNB but I see he isn’t in the Gold Cup anyway. Form of Charlie Hall and Betfair have worked out well. In my opinion he’s vastly over-priced, hence the stake. Bets like this don’t come around very often.
Value Is Everything
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