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Tingle Creek
50 points 11/4 (Sportsbook) Balder Success* (min 11/4)Another:
24 points @ 3.1/1 (betfair) Balder Success* (min 5/2)(£50 available)(74 points in all)
Couple of savers to come
Value Is EverythingTingle Creek
50 points 11/4 (Sportsbook) Balder Success* (min 11/4)Another:
24 points @ 3.1/1 (betfair) Balder Success* (min 5/2)(£50 available)
(74 points in all)22 points @ 4/1 (Sky) Gods Own (min 7/2)
11 points @ 9/1 (FD) Somersby (min 17/2)
Overall Stake 107 pointsValue Is EverythingHi Ginger, just a couple of quick questions.
1. What sort of odds are you betting your money to overall, once all bets are placed on a race, and/or does it vary from race to race?
2. Do you believe there is better value to be had on the flat or over the jumps, i.e. Which has proved more profitable over time?
Many thanks. David
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
imo This race doesn’t seem as open as the media are making out.
Balder Success
not only imo has the best form in the book (4 length winner over Simply Ned at Aintree) but also has most scope for improvement, is a 2 miler and from a trainer in excellent form.
Gods Own
looks worth at least a saver. Beat BS 5 lengths last time out (reappearance) in receipt of 7 lbs. Although GO won with a bit to spare BS did make a mistake at an important time (home straight). Winner’s trainer has done well first time out this season. GO also beat BS at Punchestown, but the latter went off too quick that day and did best of those ridden prominently. BS beat GO earlier last season at this course when I had backed GO! I’ve backed Kingy’s for the Champion Chase.
The other horse I believe value is
Somersby
, although the fact he’s difficult to win with (often finds little off bridle) makes him just a saver. Run well in this race last year before behind better horse (4 lengths 2nd to Sire De Grugy) than he meets here. Ran well last time out, chasing home Al Ferof at Ascot and is fully effective at a testing 2 miles.
Of the Others:
Oscar Whiskey
for me doesn’t jump well enough for a 2m Championship race. Put in a better round in the Paddy Power, but that was over further and they didn’t go a fast pace either. That said, best chance would be in a truly run race to bring stamina in to play. Did improve at Cheltenham and would be a danger if finally able to reproduce hurdle form (unlikely imo). Poor value at current odds.
Vukovar
is a horse I’ve always liked, backed him when he won in impressive style and again at the Cheltenham Festival. Do think there’s a fair chance he’ll prove top class eventually, but whether that’s at this trip, questionable, and needs to make considerable progress in one go to beat these. Top Class trainer in the making too, with an outstanding strike rate and invariably in my "trainers in form". I’ve missed the big prices earlier in the week so will let Vukovar go this time; but keep an eye on him.
Nicholls is in good form, but I don’t like his two.
Dodging Bullets
is one I’ve lost enough money on in previous seasons, imo one to oppose for win purposes. Some might see last time out’s performance – coming there full of running before finding little up Cheltenham’s hill – as "needing it"… But he’s got a good record fresh, ran to form (Simply Ned just in front) and that’s just how DB runs all races. Either wins seemingly with a little in hand, or gets there and doesn’t find much under pressure. Has a bit to find on form anyway, looking exposed.
Hinterland
is worse than his stable companion, inconsistent and imo should have a squiggle (temperamental). Often pulls hard and doesn’t look hearty in a finish when getting around.
Third Intention
is another risky proposition, travels well but often doesn’t seem to get home. May be first time out in a 4 runner affair was the best time to back him. Stable in excellent form so could run well enough without winning.
Williams Wishes
was doing well in good handicaps a couple of seasons ago, before injury again stopped his progression (lightly raced). Ran only once last season and once over hurdles this season. What he’s capable of nowadays is anyone’s guess and needs to improve another chunk on his best.
Pepite Rose
probably needs dryer ground and most of her form suggests needs to find a bit more (seems exposed). That said, shes more straightforward than some of these and stable in better form this time of year than previous seasons.
My 100% book:
Balder Success 9/4
Gods Own 100/30
Somersby 8/1Oscar Whiskey 11/1
Vukovar 12/1
Dodging Bullets 15/1
Third Intention 28/1
Pepite Rose 33/1
Hinterland 33/1
Williams Wishes 33/1I’ve backed Balder Success with savers on Gods Own and Somersby.
Value Is EverythingHi Ginger, just a couple of quick questions.
1. What sort of odds are you betting your money to overall, once all bets are placed on a race, and/or does it vary from race to race?
2. Do you believe there is better value to be had on the flat or over the jumps, i.e. Which has proved more profitable over time?
Many thanks. David
Not sure I understand what you mean for your first question David but… The combined odds of all bets on a race depends on the odds of what horse/s I believe are value. But the number of "main bets" compared to "savers" will depend on how much value I believe is in each bet. ie I make Balder Success particularly good value tomorrow, so have him the only main bet with two savers. Where as in a race with two of fairly equal value I’ll back two (or more) as main bets. Don’t want to go too far over the 100 points barrier for any race, so that also limits the numbers of main bets.
I find value/profit easier to find in the jumping game. However, think it all depends on the punter’s own skills which type he/she finds easier to spot "value". ie I am probably not as good as some at spotting value on the flat. Temperament and knowing who jumps well is a large part of making a profit over jumps and trainer form seems to have a bigger say in this code too; so arguably plays to my strengths.
Value Is EverythingBecher Chase Aintree Saturday
31 points @ 12/1 (Coral) Mendip Express* (min 9/1)
32 points @ 10/1 (L) Chance Du Roy* (min 17/2)17 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Master Neo* (min 28/1)(£17 available)
Value Is EverythingBecher Chase Aintree Saturday
31 points @ 12/1 (Coral) Mendip Express* (min 9/1)
32 points @ 10/1 (L) Chance Du Roy* (min 17/2)17 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Master Neo* (min 28/1)(£17 available)
Half a bet:
20 points @ 12.5/1 (betfair) Ballybriggan (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingMy 100% Book on the Becher:
Chance Du Roy 17/2
Mendip Express 17/2
Ballybriggan 17/2Green Flag 11/1
Goonyella 12/1
Saint Are 14/1
Benbens 16/1
Our Father 16/1Master Neo 25/1
Just A Parr 25/1
Mr Moonshine 33/1
Renard 33/1
Alfie Spinner 40/1
Burton Port 40/1
Knock A Hand 40/1
Highland Lodge 40/1
The Package 50/1
Oscar Time 50/1
Shakalakaboomboom 66/1
Accross The Bay 80/1
Al Co 80/1
Kruzhlinin 100/1
Ballybough Gorta 132/1
Mon Parrain 132/1
Lion Na Bearnai 200/1Value Is Everything1:50 Sandown
45 points @ 9/2 (PP) Dunraven Storm* (min 9/2)
saver:
28 points @ 13/8 (B365) Irish Saint (min 13/8)Value Is Everything3:15 Aintree
31 points @ 12/1 (WH) Bennys Mist* (min 9/1)
27 points @ 11/1 (888) Persian Snow* (min 9/1)
33 points @ 10/1 (Boyle) Hunt Ball* (min 8/1)
saver:
8 points @ 12/1 (B365) King Of The Worlds (min 12/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Aintree
Hunt Ball
10/1 (is it Pricewise?) All runs last season prior to the weights coming out for the National should be ignored as they were preparing him for the Big race. Then came 4th in Ryanair and on that form has an excellent chance here; (has even better form going back to the previous season (still only 9). Did a lot better than 17th of 18 finishers in Grand National suggests. Went in my note book for this race and Topham. Jumped well before stamina inevitably failed. Back at a distance that suits should run well. Probably needing it/other targets in a novice hurdle first time out, not knocked about.
Persian Snow
11/1 Good reappearance 2nd behind Johns Spirit who franked the form in no uncertain terms when unluckily getting to the front too soon (2nd) before idling in Paddy Power. Persian Snow himself disappointed there; got hampered on the inner more than once and worth giving another chance to resume progress at the price.
Bennys Mist
12/1 Good 8 lengths second to Ma Filleule in Topham, that race on good ground and judged on the majority of his form this softer surface should be more to his taste, so could yet improve off the same mark here. Pulled Up last time but came to a halt with a rare bad mistake. Trainer never at her best in early November anyway, so race can be ignored.
saver:
King Of The World
12/1 Warrents a saver. At least as good as ever last time out when runner-up at Ayr. Put up 6 lbs for that, but has won off this mark before, albeit only an uncompetitive affair.
Of the others:
Nicholls duo deserve respect, but last year’s winnerRebel Rebellion
‘s readyness has to be taken on trust after below form efforts so far this season. Market move either way could prove significant.
Rolling Aces
ran well enough in Old Roan, but it’s difficult to see why he should be much shorter than some of the above.
Dolatulo
seems in good form but hasn’t got the best of temperaments and can hit one. Not sure he’ll take to this; usually races near the pace and although this course usually favours such tactics, there’s a plethora of front runners here.
Champion Court
would have a good chance if back to his best but seems on the downgrade and may be too many taking him on, might sulk. Something that applies to a few others, most notably
Up To Something
,
Witness In Court
and
Bob Ford
, but also
Orpheus Valley
(who’s out of form anyway) and
Foundation Man
(came to grief when held up last time).
Poole Master
seems out of sorts,
Cedre Bleu
is a dog who’s best form was with Nicholls, now Mann.
Too Cool To Fool
is outclassed from 18 lbs out of the handicap.
My 100% Book:
Hunt Ball 7/1
Rolling Aces 8/1
Rebel Rebellion 8/1Persian Snow 8/1
Bennys Mist 8/1Donualto 10/1
King Of The Worlds
10/1
Champion Court 18/1
Bob Ford 20/1
Foundation Man 25/1
Witness In Court 28/1
Up To Something 33/1
Cedre Bleu 66/1
Poole Master 66/1
Orpheus Valley 125/1
Too Cool To Fool 800/1Value Is Everything3:15 Aintree
31 points @ 12/1 (WH) Bennys Mist* (min 9/1)
27 points @ 11/1 (888) Persian Snow* (min 9/1)
33 points @ 10/1 (Boyle) Hunt Ball* (min 8/1)
saver:
8 points @ 12/1 (B365) King Of The Worlds (min 12/1)half savers:
5 points @ 17/2 (bet365) Rebel Rebellion (min 17/2)
5 points @ 9/1 (bet365) Rolling Aces (min 9/1)Value Is EverythingHi Ginger, Thanks for answering my questions.
I don’t often do more than one horse in any race and was just wondering if you had a cut off point where you wouldn’t stick another bet on, even if deemed value, because it took a bit of the "juice" out of the selection that would be your biggest winner from the race.
A guy I used to work with at Dounreay would stick £50 on each of two jt favourites at 2/1 and I questioned the wisdom of it, since it meant he was betting 1/2 his money on the race.
I recall one example of this was a clash between Guineas runner up Bairn from Luca Cumani’s stable and the older miler Rousillon, trained by Guy Harwood. I am fairly sure the Harwood horse ran out a cosy winner to land the "coup" for my workmate.
I never felt that was likely to be a winning strategy long term and twenty odd years later I would see the same man sticking on £1000 doubles on short priced selections. It can’t have been successful though, because one of the bookies had a sign in their window with the guy’s name and address on it, stating that he owed them almost five grand!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
12:30 Cheltenham
100 points @ Evens (generally) Kings Palace (min 10/11)Value Is EverythingHooray! After a poor Saturday needed a winner. Royal Palace is also my ante-post RSA bet.
Value Is EverythingHi Ginger, Thanks for answering my questions.
I don’t often do more than one horse in any race and was just wondering if you had a cut off point where you wouldn’t stick another bet on, even if deemed value, because it took a bit of the "juice" out of the selection that would be your biggest winner from the race.
A guy I used to work with at Dounreay would stick £50 on each of two jt favourites at 2/1 and I questioned the wisdom of it, since it meant he was betting 1/2 his money on the race.
I recall one example of this was a clash between Guineas runner up Bairn from Luca Cumani’s stable and the older miler Rousillon, trained by Guy Harwood. I am fairly sure the Harwood horse ran out a cosy winner to land the "coup" for my workmate.
I never felt that was likely to be a winning strategy long term and twenty odd years later I would see the same man sticking on £1000 doubles on short priced selections. It can’t have been successful though, because one of the bookies had a sign in their window with the guy’s name and address on it, stating that he owed them almost five grand!
Think it all depends on the punter Dave, whether he’s good at spotting value.
ie If your pal thought Rousillon had a 38% (roughly 13/8) chance of winning and it’s available @ 2/1 33.33% it’s a good bet, 38 – 33.33 = a difference of 4.67%. If he thought Bairn also had a 38% chance then 2/1 is also a good bet.
2 X 38 = 76% so thinking the combined chance of the two is roughly 30/100. Therefore, if he’s taking a combined 1/2 (66.67%) about something he believes has a 76% chance of winning – It’s a difference of 76 – 66.67 = 9.33% instead of (if just backing one horse) 4.67%.If a punter is good overall at evaluating value it can be good to bet more than one horse, betting with a
9.33% difference
between your idea of its odds and what the bookmaker is offering instead of just
4.67%
if backing just one horse…
…However, it can run the risk of ruining the value if the punter is not so good at identifying value. ie If he’s right about one horse having a 38% chance 38 – 33.33 = +4.67… but wrong about the other. If taking 2/1 about something that only had around a 26% (roughly 11/4) chance then he’d be taking a
7.33% worse
than "fair" odds about that one. So with one horse being +4.67% better than fair and one -7.33% worse… +4.67 – 7.33 = -2.66%. He’s effectively
taken 1/2
about something that has a 38 + 26 = 64% =
roughly 4/7
ruining the value of one horse by backing the other.
So dutching is only good/profitable if the punter is good at identifying/evaluating plenty of value in races. If no good at identifying/evaluating value (like your pal) then the punter will end up losing more money than he would by backing one horse in races.
In practice though, I seldom back two horses so short as 2/1 as main bets. If I see two 2/1 shots representing value it’s my preference to back one horse and put a saver on the other. Means I don’t lose as much if both fail and win more on one if it wins; no profit or loss if the other is successful.
Value Is Everything
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