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Your staking plan seems reasonable to me, but I think it will be hard to get more than about 25p a point on-line once bookmaker restrictions hit your account. This is especially true if the bookmaker is offering better odds than Betfair, because it seems they have software to detect and restrict bets in such cases.
I suppose that raises the question of what the thread is for. I find it useful to make a bit of pocket money and learn about racing so I am a big fan and very grateful for the effort you put in. But I don’t think it is a realistic ‘proof’ that you can shop around bookmakers with big money.It might be simpler and more realistic to use Betfair mid-prices less 5%.
The thing about Monetaire is that normally I wouldn’t have looked at it – because of the price. I got into a bad habit long ago, perhaps my worst, of thinking prices under circa 100/30 were by their nature boring or ‘lacking value’. I suppose it’s an upshot of purple patches with big prices.
Don’t wish to put you off by percentage talk Prof
, but…
That’s the beauty of knowing the odds as percentages. You can come to an idea of value about any price, even supposedly shorties. Some punters might not think 2/1 is value at any time. But by thinking of it as only needing one in three (33%) of your 2/1 bets to win to break even – makes value 2/1 shots easier to find; 3/1 25%, one in four etc.If you find a horse you believe has a 1 in 3 chance of winning and is available @ 3/1 – then it’s hardly
"lacking value"
. So am glad you’re out of that bad habit.
Value Is EverythingYour staking plan seems reasonable to me, but I think it will be hard to get more than about 25p a point on-line once bookmaker restrictions hit your account. This is especially true if the bookmaker is offering better odds than Betfair, because it seems they have software to detect and restrict bets in such cases.
I suppose that raises the question of what the thread is for. I find it useful to make a bit of pocket money and learn about racing so I am a big fan and very grateful for the effort you put in. But I don’t think it is a realistic ‘proof’ that you can shop around bookmakers with big money.It might be simpler and more realistic to use Betfair mid-prices less 5%.
Pretty much agree with that Kasparov. A lot of the time am only quoting bookmaker prices but many of my own personal bets are on betfair. I don’t often quote betfair prices on here because they lack liquidity or are volatile and might not be there for long. ie Someone who sees my bet of say 70 points on betfair might look three minutes after I’ve put it up and finds either very little money available or price has shortened. So they might not believe my prices and stakes. Witch is another reason why when I do quote betfair – like to say how much money is left available (after I’ve had my bet) at time of writing. Won’t say "£100 available" if I’ve already taken that £100.
However, I used to quote betfair prices a lot more and was accused of making prices up. At that time people wanted to have bookmaker prices quoted if at all possible. As it is, other than Sportsbook I don’t quote any bookmaker to the right of William Hills on Oddschecker, because I’d imagine not many TRFers have accounts with the minnows.
For sure this thread is not
"realistic ‘proof’ that you can shop around bookmakers with big money"
, but people are going to think I am crazy advising TRFers to take 7/2 with Bet 365 or betfair when 4/1 is freely available with Bet Fred if they’ve got an account with Bet Fred. This is in essence an advisory thread, advising people of the value bets out there; not an exact record of my own personal bets. Sometimes the prices I’ve taken are slightly less or sometimes slightly bigger than the
Gingers Jumpers
quoted bookmaker price. Like you say Kasparov, I am finding it increasingly difficult to get on with bookmakers these days.
Value Is EverythingNo probs Prof.
2:15 Wincanton
50 points @ 3/1 (L) Ziga Boy* (min 3/1)
saver:
19 points @ 4/1 (L) Bucks Bond (min 4/1)Might be another main bet in this race late tomorrow morning.
Value Is EverythingNo probs Prof.
2:15 Wincanton
50 points @ 3/1 (L) Ziga Boy* (min 3/1)
saver:
19 points @ 4/1 (L) Bucks Bond (min 4/1)Might be another main bet in this race late tomorrow morning.
…Or early afternoon.
22 points @ 8/1 (sporting) Water Wagtail* (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingBecher Chase Aintree Saturday
31 points @ 12/1 (Coral) Mendip Express* (min 9/1)
32 points @ 10/1 (L) Chance Du Roy* (min 17/2)Value Is EverythingNo probs Prof.
2:15 Wincanton
50 points @ 3/1 (L) Ziga Boy* (min 3/1)
saver:
19 points @ 4/1 (L) Bucks Bond (min 4/1)22 points @ 8/1 (sporting) Water Wagtail* (min 15/2)
Ziga Boy won.
Hope that’s a good start for your £2000 bank Prof?
Days Total +109.00
This 2014/2015 Season
Thread Total +7318.83 points
Value Is EverythingMight be an innovation Cormack could work on: Allowing people to ‘follow’ another user and get an email when they post in a certain thread. Be handy!
I do too many posts for that to be worthwhile Prof, you’d get inundated with messages.
Also, I don’t do texting.
Value Is EverythingI do too many posts for that to be worthwhile Prof, you’d get inundated with messages.
Also, I don’t do texting.
No worries, I was only kidding.
Just so I check back – are you putting any bets up later for Sandown tomo?
Here’s one for you Prof:
1:55 Sandown
54 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Orda Ab Chao* (min 4/1)(£56 available)
29 points @ 15/8 (B365) Vyta Du Roc (min 7/4)Value Is Everything2:30 Sandown
100 points @ 4/5 (betfair) Black Thunder* (min 8/11)(£188 available @ 1.8, 18 available @ 1.81)Value Is EverythingTwo winners from two races, albeit just a saver and an odds-on shot.
Don’t usually back odds-on and on their best form wasn’t that much between Black Thunder and Corrin Wood. But when the fav is in good form himself with the trainer also in good form and conditions to suit… Where as by far his closest (only) rival on form is from a trainer out of form and who’s runners are invariably needing their first run of the season… Couldn’t resist.Days Profit +76.38 points
This 2014/2015 Season +75.63 points
Thread Total +7394.46 pointsValue Is Everything
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