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3:35 Newbury
63 points @ 5/2 (B365) Monetaire* (min 9/4)
saver:
21 points @ 3/1 (Sky) Solar Impulse (min 3/1)Value Is Everything1:20 Newbury
33 points @ 6/1 (L) Midnight Appeal* (min 6/1)
33 points @ 6/1 (B365) Listen Boy* (min 6/1)
24 points @ 9/1 (B365) Bobcatbilly* (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingI’m going off a cliff with you today, Ginger. It’s fun. A bit like being handcuffed to a madman.
Decent card at Fairyhouse today with the beginners chase and maiden hurdles of particular interest.
In the opener, Rule The World, a horse I backed for the World Hurdle last year, is the market leader. I always think the time to take on a good horse of Mouse’s is first time out, so as much as I like this horse I’ve put my money elsewhere. Adriana Des Mottes is getting bundles of weight as a 4 yo filly but against my better judgement I’ve gone with Tony Martin’s Noble Emperor. My main fear with this horse is that he’ll be given an easy time of things today and he hasn’t been strong in the early market. As such, I’ve only had a half bet on him. He has won his two races very easily thus far and looks the type to make a good chaser.
Later on the card, another McManus horse catches the eye in the shape of Owen Mc. No bet on this one but I’ll be watching him closely after his quiet run behind Killer Crow and Fine Article last time out.
In the second maiden hurdle, we have the clash of Long Dog and the aforementioned Fine Article, who is a horse I really like. Because the Mullins horse has been well touted, I have used William Hill’s two-place insurance market to back Fine Article at 6/5. I can’t see him out of the two.
In the last at Newcastle I have backed Nicky Richards Sir Vinsky who looks a cut above the opposition. I liked the way he won his bumper where he responded well for pressure and there’s not a whole lot against him here imo.
Hennessy thoughts on the Hennessy thread.
Sorry Ginger was reading your thread and then posted thinking it was my own
Looks like I should have listened to the voice on my shoulder about Noble Emperor, looked like he’d never seen a fence before.
Well done, Ginger! Many Clouds and Monetaire. Plus I found Medinas under my own steam.
So, what would be a sensible amount to be per point with a betting bank of, say, £2,000?
Three individual days racing this season
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points
2013/2014 Season Profit +1192.48 points
Three season Profit +7215.33 points2014-2015 season so far: +104.25 points
Thread Total +7319.58 pointsBetfair Chase Day -274 points
Thursday Newbury +11 points
Hennessey Day +49 points
Sub Totl -214 points
This 2014/2015 SeasonThread Total 7209.83 points
Value Is EverythingWell done, Ginger! Many Clouds and Monetaire. Plus I found Medinas under my own steam.
Not sure I deserve credit Prof. Many Clouds was just a saver bet for me and only the 5/2 fav Monetaire won. Well done in finding Medinas, am kicking myself for not doing so! Kingy in much better form than when Medinas finished behind Cole Harden at Wetherby, at his best a better horse than Gtreatrex trained front runner and available at at least 12/1 in the morning. What a mistakea to makea! Had it been 8 runners would’ve definitely played each way (even at 8’s) but decided against it.
What makes it worse, had backed More Of That ante-post for The Stayers Hurdle, but despite Merry King’s good 3rd in the Hennessey Jonjo is not in great form at the moment and… With a horse who put up a fantastic show when last seen – why put a first time tongue tie on? Suggests he hasn’t been showing the old sparkle at home. Although suspect he’ll be back to his awsome best come March (when Jonjo is invairiably in top form too) – tongue strap and the way he weakened does give at least a question mark about breathing.Value Is EverythingSorry Ginger was reading your thread and then posted thinking it was my own
Looks like I should have listened to the voice on my shoulder about Noble Emperor, looked like he’d never seen a fence before.
Do believe I did the same thing on your thread once THM. What are we like?
Looks as if you had a nightmare day Saturday, ouch! Happens to us all, mine was the previous Saturday.
Value Is EverythingKing George VI Chase Kempton
25 points @ 16/1 (Betfair) Menorah* (min 11/1)(£37 available)23 points @ 12/1 (L) Al Ferof* (min 10/1)
saver:
12 points @ 4/1 (Sportsbook) Silviniaco Conti (min 4/1)Silviniaco Conti
ran right up to his best in winning the Betfair and deserves to be favourite here having also won this in 2013. I’ve had a saver on him @ 4/1. The now top price of 3’s looks stingy to me considering he only outstayed
Menorah
in the final strides of a race a furlong further and on deep stamina sapping ground. I took 16/1 about the Betfair runner-up gaining revenge, 12/1 still outstanding value imo, albeit owner and trainer also have 2012 neck runner-up
Captain Chris
and
Wishful Thinking
. Latter unlikely to run and simply not good enough anyway. Former obviously has form to go close and a wide margin winner of his last two starts, but hasn’t been seen since February and is available at twice the price of his stable companion. Improvement in Menorah’s form has coincided with an improvement in jumping technique this season, although wouldn’t like to see too big a field. Unlike Silviniaco Conti, we now know he’s equally effective on very soft or good ground and slightly less of a stamina test could bring out a bit more improvement. Menorah is a top class racehorse who is yet to be given the credit/respect he deserves from punters and bookmakers.
Also taken 12/1
Al Ferof
after an impressive come back for a second successive year in Amlin Chase, admittedly with main rivals below form. However, despite trainer believing the horse needed it put up his best performance yet. Had seemingly valid excuses when running at this trip previously and runs (at shorter) as if could be suited by 3m. Proved disappointing after reappearance last year, never moving with usual fluency when only distant 3rd in this race (diagnosed with ulcers afterwards). Hopefully can realise potential, although bearing in mind his problems and current 8/1, might be better waiting until the day if you’re not already involved.
Champagne Fever
will be a danger to all, appears from betting and owner’s words could be coming over from Ireland. Bred to stay but bit of a stamina doubt. Yet to race further than 2m4f and is a front runner who can pull hard at shorter trips even when given a soft lead. Might not last home if taken on in front. That said, always been a horse I’ve liked and has enormous potential. But that’s more than taken in to account in the 4/1 price, Willie Mullins factor working overtime. Needs a dramatic step up on previous form and that might be asking a bit much in one go.
Value Is EverythingTingle Creek
50 points 11/4 (Sportsbook) Balder Success* (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingWell done, Ginger! Many Clouds and Monetaire. Plus I found Medinas under my own steam.
Not sure I deserve credit Prof. Many Clouds was just a saver bet for me and only the 5/2 fav Monetaire won. Well done in finding Medinas, am kicking myself for not doing so! Kingy in much better form than when Medinas finished behind Cole Harden at Wetherby, at his best a better horse than Gtreatrex trained front runner and available at at least 12/1 in the morning. What a mistakea to makea! Had it been 8 runners would’ve definitely played each way (even at 8’s) but decided against it.
What makes it worse, had backed More Of That ante-post for The Stayers Hurdle, but despite Merry King’s good 3rd in the Hennessey Jonjo is not in great form at the moment and… With a horse who put up a fantastic show when last seen – why put a first time tongue tie on? Suggests he hasn’t been showing the old sparkle at home. Although suspect he’ll be back to his awsome best come March (when Jonjo is invairiably in top form too) – tongue strap and the way he weakened does give at least a question mark about breathing.The thing about Monetaire is that normally I wouldn’t have looked at it – because of the price. I got into a bad habit long ago, perhaps my worst, of thinking prices under circa 100/30 were by their nature boring or ‘lacking value’. I suppose it’s an upshot of purple patches with big prices.
Sorry Ginger was reading your thread and then posted thinking it was my own
Looks like I should have listened to the voice on my shoulder about Noble Emperor, looked like he’d never seen a fence before.
Do believe I did the same thing on your thread once THM. What are we like?
Looks as if you had a nightmare day Saturday, ouch! Happens to us all, mine was the previous Saturday.
Could have happened before alright Ginger!
Poor day on Saturday alright, Sunday was better thankfully. Had a bit of luck with Lieutenant Colonel and backed Nichols Canyon without Allez Colombieres. Apache Stronghold was my main bet of the weekend, e/w at 5/1, and he ran a good race in the Drinmore. Would like to see him stepped up to three miles at Christmas given how he stayed on on Sunday. I’ve a few peanuts on him at 100/1 for the RSA on Betfair and the dream is still alive. Have to say I think they look a very good bunch of novice chasers.So, what would be a sensible amount to be per point with a betting bank of, say, £2,000?
I take it £2000 is what you’ve set aside as spare cash (not the sum total of your savings) Prof?…
I don’t like telling people how much 1 point should be worth, because it all depends on what sort of gambler they are. One who’s cautious or one that likes to take a risk, or somewhere in the middle?
This is what you might consider if willing to take a
risk
on a losing run occurring at the start and don’t mind sometimes putting around 5% of your bank on one race, ie around £100, it seldom goes above 100 points per race. Although that in turn could mean staking 20% in one day (around £400) in 4 races, occasionally 25%, £500 if 5 races). If you’re happy with that then try
£1 per point
. Although to give the bank some stability it may be wise to drop and raise stakes accordingly with what happens to your bank. ie £1 is
0.0005
of your £2000 bank. So you could re-calculate what 1 point is worth every day (or if time is short every week). It always being 0.0005 of your bank. So if the bank went up to £2200 then 1 point would be worth £1.10. If a £3000 bank each point would be worth £1.50. (Once it passed £3000 you could recalculate by using 0.00075). Contrastingly, if the bank reduced to £1700 each point would only be worth 85p (0.0005 x 1700).
Alternatively
If you’re amiddle
risk type of person perhaps start with
75p per point
for your £2000 (0.000375 x 2000).
If you’re naturally
cautious
then perhaps start with
50p per point
for your £2000 (0.00025 x 2000).
As I say Prof, don’t like to tell people how much to bet, these are only suggestions and punters should find how much they’re personally happy staking.
Hope that helps.
Value Is Everything
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