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Terribly sad news about brilliant trainer Dessie Hughes – RIP
Really sad news Gdc, but he had a good life and always think a life like his should be celebrated with happy faces. I became interested in racing in the last days of Dessie’s riding career and have backed a number of horses he’s trained. Hardy Eustace and Our Conor in particular.
Value Is Everything3:15 Cheltenham
31 points @ 9/1 (PP) Exitas* (min 15/2)22 points @ 10/1 (B365) Baltimore Rock* (min 9/1)
21 points @ 16/1 (B365) Garde La Victoire* (min 14/1)
savers:
10 points @ 10/1 (B365) Regal Encore (min 10/1)
5 points @ 21/1 (Betfair) Blue Moon (min 18/1) (£67 available)Another main bet on a rank outsider to come when enough money is available on betfair.
Value Is EverythingThanks Baynet,
Three wins from three races today, two being saver bets. One big 16/1 main bet winner. Days Profit +269 points.Value Is EverythingThree individual days racing this season
2011/2012 Season Profit +1552.85 points
2012/2013 Season Profit +4470.00 points
2013/2014 Season Profit +1192.48 points
Three season Profit +7215.33 points2014-2015 season so far: +104.25 points
Thread Total +7319.58 pointsValue Is EverythingAnte-Post
RSA Chase Cheltenham Festival
28 points @ 12/1 (Paddy Power) Kings Palace* (min 9/1)Value Is EverythingHi Mark just a question because i am betting seriously next year. When you say they are limiting you etc why not just bet on betfair? Is The commision a big hit on profits?
More and more of my bets are on betfair Sam; even a lot I put up here quoting bookies prices I personally have taken betfair odds. However, the time that I am used to betting (night before) liquidity isn’t great on betfair and bookies (best prices on oddschecker) are usually slightly better.
Wouldn’t say the commission is a "big hit", just prefer taking the very best price. Athough those small differences can add up by the end of season. Betfair is obviously at its best (more liquidity and less overround) nearer off time. But I tend to do better backing horses at value prices before shortening up – rather than horses drifting out to what seems a value price. May be it’s imagination, but always think about big drifters – someone somewhere knows something more about the horse than me. Unlike in the 1980’s and 90’s, these days am convinced the late market knows more about the horses actual chances and I seldom do more than saver bets in the last hour of trading before the off.
May need to change the way I bet and switch to early morning, just goes against the grain missing late night value. That said, Saturday usually has just as good value if not better early morning; it’s week days I find evening/late night value particularly good.
Always good to hear someone betting seriously Sam, good luck.
GT – beware of Betfair Sportsbook. They will have you down to pennies shortly. PP and Coral I don’t even bother with nowadays. I am sick of reading about all these special offers for new customers. Show any sign of knowing anything about value and these boys don’t want to know.
I personally rarely bet the evening before but I know a couple of guys that do. The value can go quickly and all you end up doing is alert bookies that you can spot early value. Knowing the races you prefer to bet in I would recommend you look towards placing most of your bets early morning. The pricewise races are available from 8.30am. If your selection is not a pricewise tip it’s fairly easy to monitor the market and get best price between say 8.30am and 10am. Some prices can go quickly but frequently others can drift a tad and that’s when you need to be ready and waiting….if said bookie will take a bet! Remember Bet365 price match from 10am too.
Hi Mark just a question because i am betting seriously next year. When you say they are limiting you etc why not just bet on betfair? Is The commision a big hit on profits?
More and more of my bets are on betfair Sam; even a lot I put up here quoting bookies prices I personally have taken betfair odds. However, the time that I am used to betting (night before) liquidity isn’t great on betfair and bookies (best prices on oddschecker) are usually slightly better.
Wouldn’t say the commission is a "big hit", just prefer taking the very best price. Athough those small differences can add up by the end of season. Betfair is obviously at its best (more liquidity and less overround) nearer off time. But I tend to do better backing horses at value prices before shortening up – rather than horses drifting out to what seems a value price. May be it’s imagination, but always think about big drifters – someone somewhere knows something more about the horse than me. Unlike in the 1980’s and 90’s, these days am convinced the late market knows more about the horses actual chances and I seldom do more than saver bets in the last hour of trading before the off.
May need to change the way I bet and switch to early morning, just goes against the grain missing late night value. That said, Saturday usually has just as good value if not better early morning; it’s week days I find evening/late night value particularly good.
Always good to hear someone betting seriously Sam, good luck.
GT – beware of Betfair Sportsbook. They will have you down to pennies shortly. PP and Coral I don’t even bother with nowadays. I am sick of reading about all these special offers for new customers. Show any sign of knowing anything about value and these boys don’t want to know.
I personally rarely bet the evening before but I know a couple of guys that do. The value can go quickly and all you end up doing is alert bookies that you can spot early value. Knowing the races you prefer to bet in I would recommend you look towards placing most of your bets early morning. The pricewise races are available from 8.30am. If your selection is not a pricewise tip it’s fairly easy to monitor the market and get best price between say 8.30am and 10am. Some prices can go quickly but frequently others can drift a tad and that’s when you need to be ready and waiting….if said bookie will take a bet! Remember Bet365 price match from 10am too.
Very few of my bets are with Sportsbook, so hopefully they’ll be ok for a while. I’ve heard both Paddy Power and Bet365 badly limit customers Oasis, but they’ve been very good to me (especially the latter). Corals is another story, limited to £5 or even £1 is not unusual!
In the past, think some bookmakers have allowed me to bet late at night purely because it tips them off who’s going to be backed in the morning. But may be they’ve now lost too much.
You could be right about betting early morning instead. It’ll take some getting used to but my girlfriend is a postie, so it might work in better with her life too.
Value Is EverythingBetfair is a tricky race.
Dynaste
not out yet (although arguably best fresh and at this time of year. However, still has a bit to find over Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card. And not certain whether testing conditions at 3m1f (if it is actually 3m1f) will suit him. Something that could be said about many of these.
Silviniaco Conti
stays 3 miles around Kempton, but would he truly stay 3m1f in a heavy ground Betfair run at a good gallop? Did not appear to stay 3m2f110y at Cheltenham. Or was that more to do with temperament? Only had 3 lengths to spare over Argocat (third) at Aintree, having again seemingly going well before faltering on run-in. So although reappearance could be put down to needing the run; it’s worrying all last three runs found little off the bridle. Wouldn’t be surprised to see headgear or ear plugs.
Cue Card
made a lot of improvement from reappearance to Betfair Chase last year and needs to find even more this time. Although 2 miles might be a bit on the short side nowadays too. Stable are in much better form now than then too, which imo is a huge plus to his chances. Tizzards were also in poor form at the time of his uncharacteristic weak finish in King George. So the percieved stamina issue may not have been the deciding factor at Kempton after all. CC is the one I prefer of the big three.
Taquin Du Sieul
ran really well against Menorah in the Charlie Hall to run him to 4 lengths and can improve again. But along with those 4 lengths he’s also 5 lbs worse off with the Hobbs horse. Don’t see why TDS should be shorter than Menorah.
There is another one I like though,
Menorah
. I’ve been against this horse in most of his races. Hasn’t jumped well and inconsistent for so long. However, seems to have finally got the hang of jumping and that may well improve consistency. Also reappeared earlier this term which suggests all was not right last season. Test of stamina (heavy/strong pace) might be against him; but at 8/1 looks worth taking a chance on with a probable saver (or more) on Cue Card later on.
Forget
The Giant Bolster
this time of year, ran an indolent race first time up anyway.
Double Ross
appeared not to stay in the Charlie Hall, weakening late and
Medermit
doesn’t look good enough.
Harry Topper
imo does not jump well enough to win a normal grade 1 race on reasonable ground. But if it came up very testing could yet be worth a bet; as unlike the market principles is a proven stayer. It would also help if it was all of the official 3m1f trip. Stable’s runners are often under-estimated.
29 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Menorah* (min 7/1) (£57 available)
Value Is EverythingA "no bet" race for me GT, but if pushed, I’d side with Menorah as well. I’ve bet him at 80’s to 130’s for The Gold Cup, so I’ll leave him alone on Saturday, and hope a good run there can give me a potential to get a decent trade in.
29 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Menorah* (min 7/1) (£57 available)
If you haven’t yet backed Menorah,
DON’T!
Unease in the market is disconcerting.
Value Is EverythingThat’s a shame, was looking to see how he’d fare on Saturday, hopefully nothing serious.
That’s a shame, was looking to see how he’d fare on Saturday, hopefully nothing serious.
Haven’t heard anything concrete VTC, it’s only disconcerting because of the drift. Might be best to wit until at least after the first couple of races on Friday, so to gauge ground conditions.
Value Is EverythingHennessey Cognac Gold Cup, Newbury
30 points @ 10/1 (L) Smad Place* (min 8/1)
25 points @ 16/1 (L) The Druids Nephew* (min 12/1)Value Is Everything
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