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I’m back!
Thought I didnt need this ego trip, but may be I do…Good to see you back mate,now forget the ego we have work to do this jumps season,first thing you need to do is get your 10 to follow list in……As for
More of that
,yes he’s a horse with masses of potential and a Gold cup horse if ever there was but 3/1 now is too short from an Ante-Post perspective as Jonjo is quite happy to blow the cobwebs off a horse over a 3 month period and he could be twice those odds come Xmas,come March and the world hurdle then the only horse he needs to fear is
Annie Power
as she too could be anything.
Welcome ‘home’
I have been backing this lad since last April and feel very strongly he is (bar the dreaded injury) a banker!Any others that you have on your radar?
I like Saphir du Rheu who looks a stayer who could go right to the top.
2nd up is Southfield Theatre who the whole yard rate very highly indeed.
3rd are Don Poli and Very Wood in the novice chasing ranks.
I have a sneaky feeling that Glens Melody could go off favourite for the Mares race as I think Ricci may go for gold!! I’ve been backing her in EW doubles and trebles.Cheers Gdc,
Can see your thinking with Glens Melody, although if Annie misses the Mares I can see Henderson switching Ma Filleule back to hurdles for the Festival. That said, this is an outstanding chasing mare and can see her winning in top company this term. See she’s fav for the JNWine. If I hadn’t already got a few bets on the Gold Cup (includingHolywell
) –
Ma Filleule
strikes me as the best current value @ around 25/1. Although after the Topham there’s a fair chance she’ll go for the Grand National; for which am also considering an interest (as well as this weekend).
Champion Hurdle looks a three horse race,
Faugheen
, The New One and Jezki. At this stage I prefer the first named, but haven’t played yet.
Champion Chase looks – on the book – between even fewer. Sprinter or Sire, everything depends on if the Henderson horse can return to his best. If so they won’t see him for dust. However, I’ve had a few quid on
Balder Sucess
who I believe could at least shake up SDG. Gods Own franked his form when winning at the Punchestown Festival. Balder Sucess himself ran better than his placing indicates there, racing too fast too soon.
Predicting Ryanair runners is futile, let alone the winner. Nightmare race. Usually won by something retargeted from the Gold Cup or Queen Mum. I backed
Boston Bob
for the Gold Cup last season and he finally showed what Gord and I knew he had in him; but only at the back end. He could develop in to Ireland’s best chance of the Blue Riband along with stable companion
Champagne Fever
. Those two are my two established Irish chasers to follow. Either could pick up the Ryanair if choosing that race. Champagne Fever could take in the King George too.
Taquin De Suill
is one I dismissed last season, but not going to make the same mistake this. Can see him developing his portfolio this time around. Am looking to back him against Silviniaco Conti in the Charlie Hall. Then there’s the two Ryanair favs Dynaste and returning Simonsig along with the other Henderson grey, aforementioned Ma Filleule.
With now three Grade 1 Novice Chases for connections to avoid each other, I’ve been less interested in searching for Novice Chasers this year. You’ve certainly picked out three with excellent potential in Saphir, Southfield and Don. Latter could be the Mullins Number 1 for the RSA. Hope Un De Sceaux is finally allowed to take on the best 2 milers, if so he’s one to keep a close eye on over fences along with the obvious Vautour. Although I’ve taken them on by backing
Josses Hill
in the Arkle. One with the size to make a much better chaser than hurdler and is my only play in the Novice markets as yet. Am not a great fan of Very Wood, thought he was the beneficiary of a red hot pace at the Festival last year. Don’t think he’s good enough for the main Novice events, wouldn’t be surprised if connections choose the 4 miler as his target. For the RSA much prefer the Spa second fav
Kings Palace
, who Scudamore went far too hard. Henderson has a good team too in the obvious Beat That and Whisper.
Couple of handicappers I really like this term are stable companions
Le Bec
and
Shotgun Paddy
. Backed the former for the RSA last year and still going pretty well when falling. Be surprised if he doesn’t pick up a good prize or two along the way for my local trainer Emma Lavelle. Her Shotgun Paddy could also develop in to a Welsh or Scottish National candidate (could if memory serves be the second of that name to win it). Didn’t jump well at all in the National Hunt chase at the Festival, yet still went very close. The one I like for the Aintree show piece (along with Ma Filleule if aimed there) is
Godsmejudge
. Although consistency (too consistent) could hinder chances as far as handicapping, can see improvment forthcoming given the jumping test and comes to hand that time of year.
If Sprinter Sacre does not return to his amazing brilliance, the best horse in the country is arguably
Cue Card
. Though he too needs to come back from injury. Not absolutely convinced he’s a three miler, however, am convinced he’s a special horse. Suppose those of his class can often be as good anywhere between 2 and 3 miles. Below form in the King George when stable was in poor form. Silviniaco Conti won there, but since blotted his copy book by wandering badly both when 4th at Cheltenham and didn’t please either by winning at Aintree (form’s not great). Like to take him on for the moment. Like most of the forum I have 50/1 for the Gold Cup Holywell, put up a cracking performance both at Cheltenham, beating Ma Filliule in the 3m handicap and Aintree’s Grade 1 staying Novice. Although Jonjo’s horse is hardly value anymore. Considering laying it back because could well be a Spring horse and disappoint early. Looks like my second Gold Cup bet, O’Faolins Boy will be struggling to get there. The other, Smad Place might yet improve in his second season, like over hurdles when placed in the Stayers. However, form of that RSA has been knocked since and although still the same 20/1, Kingy’s horse no longer appeals at that price.
EDIT:
A couple of Kingy’s that appeal as (at least) big handicap winners areValdez
and
Uxizandre
. Former ran well in the Arkle and looked an improved horse on reappearance, before unshipping. Uxizandre travelled like the best horse for a long way in the Old Roan, should come on a fair bit for the run and is a possible for the Paddy Power.
Value Is EverythingSo how did the blog go?
It hasn’t Nathan.
If I do start one it’s likely to be either in the new year or starting off at the Grand National.Value Is EverythingI’m back!
Thought I didnt need this ego trip, but may be I do…Good to see you back mate,now forget the ego we have work to do this jumps season,first thing you need to do is get your 10 to follow list in……As for
More of that
,yes he’s a horse with masses of potential and a Gold cup horse if ever there was but 3/1 now is too short from an Ante-Post perspective as Jonjo is quite happy to blow the cobwebs off a horse over a 3 month period and he could be twice those odds come Xmas,come March and the world hurdle then the only horse he needs to fear is
Annie Power
as she too could be anything.
My 10 to follow is almost there Gord.
I’m still in two minds whether to include Sprinter Sacre or Sire De Grugy, can’t justify both. And have got to drop either Silviniaco Conti, Cue Card or Holywell. In a way like to do the former, after his meanderings at both Cheltenham and Aintree. But can I afford to drop a horse that’s favourite for both Betfair and King George? Then there’s Cue Card, who could easily be the best horse in training. But does he truly stay a strongly run 3 miles and if not is he going to be running in races he can’t win this term? And finally Holywell, who we both like, but is he one to take on now so short in markets?I can see your logic Gord. True, Jonjo often has Cheltenham as the one and only target all season. But he’s usually doing that with poorer quality animals. More Of That is (as you say) exceptional. Really does have so much in hand over his British staying hurdle rivals. Even without being 100% fit, unless At Fishers Cross can finally fulfil the potential seemed to show as a novice (unlikely) – can see More Of That winning a couple of races easily (shortening up) before packed away for a few months until March.
If Briar Hill does reasonably well in Ireland can see him being the Mullins first representitive for the Stayers. Has no other possible target unlike Annie Power. Trainer (if not owner) will want Annie to go for the Mares. Currently over double the bookmaker top price on Betfair; Briar Hill is shorter than his bookie’s price. Hurricane Fly also shorter than the mare and Diakali only 1% bigger! Seens to show the intentions for Annie.I remember having a very similar discussion with someone over another similarly priced Stayers Hurdle horse at the same stage a few years ago. When Big Buck’s was going for his second win.
At this stage, does More Of That stand a better or worse than 25% chance of winning the race? I believe his fair odds are around 1 in 3, 33%, 2/1.
Value Is Everything2:30 Down Royal
49 points @ 7/2 (L) Ma Filleule* (min 100/30)
14 points @ 7/2 (L) Boston Bob (min 7/2)Value Is Everything2:30 Down Royal
49 points @ 7/2 (L) Ma Filleule* (min 100/30)
14 points @ 7/2 (L) Boston Bob (min 7/2)Extra:
21 points @ 5/1 (B365) Ma Filleule* (min 100/30)
6 points @ 7/2 (B365) Boston Bob (min 7/2)Value Is Everything2:30 Down Royal
49 points @ 7/2 (L) Ma Filleule* (min 100/30)
14 points @ 7/2 (L) Boston Bob (min 7/2)Extra:
21 points @ 5/1 (B365) Ma Filleule* (min 100/30)
6 points @ 7/2 (B365) Boston Bob (min 7/2)Days/Season Deficit -90
Value Is EverythingTerrible shame that they have shelved the Ten to Follow this year! Always look forward to it
Champion Hurdle
19 points @ 33/1 (PP) Sign Of A Victory (min 22/1)Value Is EverythingThis thread is understandably quiet as not a lot of form at this stage of the season is reliable. Better not to bet at all than bet rashly. But we need a few winners sooner or later. No pressure, Ginge, but my daughter wants an iphone for Christmas.
Did you see Tell us More’s run? Mullins for Gigginstown could be potent combination, I’ve taken 20s for the Neptune
early enough but he looked goodDid you see Tell us More’s run? Mullins for Gigginstown could be potent combination, I’ve taken 20s for the Neptune
early enough but he looked goodDidn’t see it Gdc, will keep an eye on the horse now though.
Value Is EverythingHello Ginge,
Surprised not to see any selections today! You keeping your powder dry?
Was going to Baynet, but Friday’s racing is a bit difficult. So much pace in the big handicap and the novice is all about who’s made the most improvement from hurdles to fences. Never get involved in X-country or amateurs. Nothing appealed.
Am working on Saturday’s card.
Value Is Everything
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