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3:35 Warwick
30 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Royale Knight* (min 11/1)24 points @ 8/1 (C) Shotgun Paddy* (min 15/2)
Value Is Everything3:35 Warwick
30 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Royale Knight* (min 11/1)24 points @ 8/1 (C) Shotgun Paddy* (min 15/2)
saver:
10 points @ 7/1 (888) Vesper Bell (min 7/1)(£80 also available on betfair)Value Is Everything3:35 Warwick
30 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Royale Knight* (min 11/1)24 points @ 8/1 (C) Shotgun Paddy* (min 15/2)
saver:
10 points @ 7/1 (888) Vesper Bell (min 7/1)(£80 also available on betfair)5 points @ 14/1 (generally) Victors Serenade (min 13/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (generally) Emperors Choice (min 11/1)One of the three savers might become a main bet at some point, depending on prices available.
Value Is EverythingMy write ups mean little if they are not accompanied by a "100% book"… And when giving my idea of "true odds" I got so much abuse it’s not worth doing…(
Why your so called Write-ups have any bearing on 100% books and vice-versa has long been a sore point for those of us who back horses because we actually think that a particular horse has a good chance of winning.A horses chance of winning a race is influenced by absolutely nothing to do with 100% books bollox you used to bore us all with Ginge.Thank God you at last have got off your high horse about that ridiculous topic and dont feel the need anymore to defend your position to the hilt like you used to.Well done Ginge,I reckon you yourself realise finally that you did talk a lot of hypocritical clap trap about ‘Value’ of one horse then throwing that ‘value’ straight out the window by backing several others!! Hallelujah,rejoice,Hallelujah,rejoice!1:55 Warwick
20 points each way @ 8/1 (C) Granville Island* (min 7/1)
12 points @ 8/1 (L) Dunowen Point (min 15/2)Value Is Everything Why your so called Write-ups have any bearing on 100% books and vice-versa has long been a sore point for those of us who back horses because we actually think that a particular horse has a good chance of winning. A horses chance of winning a race is influenced by absolutely nothing to do with 100% books
bollox you used to bore us all with Ginge. Thank God you at last have got off your high horse about that ridiculous topic and dont feel the need anymore to defend your position to the hilt like you used to.Well done Ginge,I reckon you yourself realise finally that you did talk a lot of hypocritical clap trap about ‘Value’ of one horse then throwing that ‘value’ straight out the window by backing several others!! Hallelujah,rejoice,Hallelujah,rejoice!
Oh Gord Blimey, he still hasn’t grasped it.
You’re absolutely right,"A horse’s chance of winning a race is
influenced
by absolutely nothing to do with 100% books". I never said it was.
100% books do
NOT
"influence"
the chance of winning. The book
IS
the chance of winning! (Or at least my
idea
of the chance of winning). ie it is
FORM
that
"influences"
what price each horse should be,
NOT
the other way around.
Do you understand now Gord?
Value Is EverythingThe book
IS
the chance of winning! (Or at least my
idea
of the chance of winning). ie it is
FORM
that
"influences"
what price each horse should be,
NOT
the other way around.
Do you understand now Gord?
No your arguement that the book
IS
the chance of winning is complete nonsense as any horse in any race could and occassinally is any price you like in running!One of your several So called ‘Value’ selections,we’ll call it Horse ‘A’ goes off the 2/1 fav so in your world he has a 33.3% chance of winning and yet after a furlong he drifts to 5/1 so suddenly has a 20% chance of winning but then he’s out to 20/1 and has only a 5% chance and after finishing like a rocket trades at 1/5 a 50% chance of winning goes to 1/10 which again in your world means he’s won but actually loses on the line in a photo so you can stick your so called ‘Value’ in your pipe and smoke it as this particular horse has blown your so called 100% book out of the water with a missile backfiring called ‘Value’.!
2:10 Kempton
50 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Twinlight* (min 11/4)Sugar! Twinlight should’ve been the saver.
Value Is Everything2:10 Kempton
50 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Twinlight* (min 11/4)Sugar! Twinlight should’ve been the saver.
50 points @ 7/2 (B365) Champion Court* (min 100/30)
Value Is Everything2:10 Kempton
50 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Twinlight* (min 11/4)Sugar! Twinlight should’ve been the saver.
50 points @ 7/2 (B365) Champion Court* (min 100/30)
16 points @ 12/1 (B365) Ghizao* (min 10/1)
(If you haven’t yet backed Twinlight just do a 24 point win (saver) bet @ 11/4)
Value Is EverythingAlready Backed:
2:10 Kempton
50 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Twinlight* (min 11/4)Sugar! Twinlight should’ve been the saver.
50 points @ 7/2 (B365) Champion Court* (min 100/30)
16 points @ 12/1 (B365) Ghizao* (min 10/1)(If you haven’t yet backed Twinlight just do a 24 point win (saver) bet @ 11/4)…NOW…
…If
you did do the first Twinlight bet…
LAY 26 points @ 3/1 (betfair) Twinlight (90 available) so as to make Twinlight the saver. (liability 78)Value Is EverythingThe book
IS
the chance of winning! (Or at least my
idea
of the chance of winning). ie it is
FORM
that
"influences"
what price each horse should be,
NOT
the other way around.
Do you understand now Gord?
No your arguement that the book
IS
the chance of winning
MY IDEA
of the horse’s chance is 25% 3/1 and the conditions (ground, no sweating horses etc) don’t change from the time I calculate my odds to
OFF TIME
– then MY PRICE IS 3/1 whether it is available @ 2/1 OR 4/1. It just means that (
IF
I hadn’t already got a bet on) 2/1 would be
too short
(ie shorter than 3/1) but 4/1 would be
a bet
(because it is bigger than 3/1)!…
…and yet after a furlong he drifts to 5/1 so suddenly has a 20% chance
Where as betting after a furlong you need to take all the above AND calculate how the first furlong has changed the chances of all concerned. Just as betting at any point within the race a punter needs to take in to account everything that has gone before.…so you can stick your so called ‘Value’ in your pipe and smoke it as this particular horse has blown your so called 100% book out of the water with a missile backfiring called ‘Value’.!
Value Is EverythingI’d be against Twinlight tomorrow Ginger. I think he’ll like the course and while he goes well on soft ground I’d have doubts about him slogging around in the muck over 2m 4f. I think he’s a real two miler but would fear the likes of Captain Chris and Champion Court will outstay him. Think Twinlight should be 4/1.
I’d be against Twinlight tomorrow Ginger. I think he’ll like the course and while he goes well on soft ground I’d have doubts about him slogging around in the muck over 2m 4f. I think he’s a real two miler but would fear the likes of Captain Chris and Champion Court will outstay him. Think Twinlight should be 4/1.
Stamina is exactly the reason why I make Twinlight just the saver THM. Silly of me to get confused in writing down main bet stake with the saver bet horse!
Although there is a chance they won’t go that quick tomorrow.Just to annoy Gord, My 100% Book at this point in time is:
Captain Chris 28% 5/2Champion Court
26.25% 11/4
Twinlight
27.25% 11/4
Ghizao
10% 91
Papite Rose 8.25% 11/1
Tataniano 0.25% 400/1I agree, if Twinlight was to be my (a) main bet THM, he’d need to be around 4/1 or at least 7/2.
Had the race been 2m2f I’d have definitely made Twinlight favourite. Lot will depend on how the Irish horse settles tomorrow… And their trip over!Value Is Everything3:00 Warwick
46 points @ 4/1 (L) Deputy Dan* (min 7/2)
27 points @ 9/4 (VC) Rathvinden (min 9/4)
14 points @ 16/1 (B365) Potters Cross* (min 16/1)Value Is Everything
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