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7:55 Goodwood
50 points @ 3/1 (FD, W) Zain Shamardal
12 points @ 39/1 One Lucky Lady
5 points @ 14/1 (b365) Rutland BoyValue Is Everything8:30 Goodwood
40 points @ 4/1 (b365 bog) St Augustine
9 points @ 9/2 (WH bog) Yair HillValue Is EverythingLooking good Ginge., what`s the latest profit total – above 1000 points yet?
Nice winner at Goodwood last night, but could have been a lot better though eh?
Queen Anne Stakes
10 points each way @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Cityscape
5 points (win) @ 35/1 (betfair) CityscapeValue Is EverythingLooking good Ginge., what`s the latest profit total – above 1000 points yet?
Nice winner at Goodwood last night, but could have been a lot better though eh?
Working on an update of results at the moment Softie. Too true, could’ve been so much better with 3 seconds as well as one winner. Don’t think any of them were unlucky though.
How did the bott go?
Value Is EverythingThat still looks a big price as things stand for Cityscape Ginge.,in fact i expect you`re doing a rain dance right now.
Bot ended 2.5 points down having been 7.5 points ahead going in to evening racing. Month to date is + 24 points.
3:30 Sandown
58 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Night Carnation10 points @ 6/1 (b365) Dinkum Diamond
Value Is EverythingCoronation Cup
57 points @ 2/1 (PP) Midday
2nd
4 points @ 13/8 (WH) Midday
12 points @ 43/1 (betfair) Indian Days
-73 points deficit
I know I backed it; but Queally went for home further out than Midday has ever done (too far out), playing more to the strengths of St Nicholas Abbey. The mare has a tendency to idle as she did in the Nassau. Not saying she would’ve won, we’ll never know. At Goodwood she recovered, reacting to Stacelita’s close challenge. On Friday a wide move by Moore gave no chance to pick up again. St Nicholas Abbey seemed not to handle Tattenham Corner when pushed along and seemingly outpaced. However, an alternative explanation could be because Queally came alongside, sandwiching him between her and Dandino. At Chester and again here St Nicholas Abbey found plenty when racing wide, away from other horses; staying on really well at the finish. Probably a well thought out plan by team Coolmore.
As I said at the time the two principles had a similar chance, Midday backed from 2/1 anti-post down to 5/4 with St Nich evens. Indian Days also backed on course down to 28/1 (took 43/1). Not that it did me any good.Epsom Oaks
17 points @ 12/1 (pp) Havant
50 points @ 9/2 (Skybet) Blue Bunting
6 points @ 25/1 (Tote) Wonder Of Wonders2nd
8 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Misty For Me
3 points @ 20/1 (b365) Siren’s Song
(59) Am calling it 59 stake because the Lay was playing about with potential winnings and am not including the Return in results. ie The lay won half of my win stake on Blue Bunting back. (see Kingfisher’s post below)
-59 deficit
Yet another ante-post disaster despite unbelievable prices. Beaten by a brilliant ride by Johnny Murtagh; or rather a reasonable ride by Murtagh, a xxxxxxx awful ride by every other jockey. Not that i’m bitter. Corry Cup was slowly run; the second slowest on the day with all other races beating the 1.88 seconds slower than standard. Yet the Oaks a staggering 6.43 seconds slower than standard! Pedestrian. Dancing Rain given a 4 length start and did not have to exert herself to get clear. Then maintained this advantage without needing to do anything until having a head start for the 3 furlong sprint for home. Haggas filly also being more speed bred than many of her rivals.
Only jockey to keep anywhere near close enough was Fallon on Wonder Of Wonders. Even so the test of speed did not suit this middle-distance bred filly. Did well to get upsides, but the effort to do so took its toll. Dettori knew he’d cocked it up on Blue Bunting, panicking when smashing in to Havant. No doubt wanted the ground to open up and so embarrassed with a lack of pace judgement, forgot to push his mount out for third. Can not say Dancing Rain definitely would not have won with a faster pace; but I’d make Wonder Of Wonders quite a bit shorter than the winner if they both reappear at The Curragh.Of my prices taken: Blue Bunting took 9/2, SP 9/4. Wonder Of Wonders 25/1, SP 3/1. Havant 12/1, SP 7/1 (actually I took even bigger but forgot to put it up). Misty For Me 8/1, SP 5/1.(Those 4 horses the shortest 4 in the betting). Siren Song 20/1, SP 16/1. And what happens?
2:40 Epsom
25 @ 13/2 (PP) St Moritz2nd
10 @ 21/1 (betfair) Nationalism
7 @ 10/1 (betfair) Vesuve
27 @ 1.86/1 (betfair) Premio Loco
8 @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Awzaan
-77 deficit
St Moritz backed at 13/2, though could have got bigger, came in to 9/2 SP. Worked him out as the probable leader who might have a pace advantage. Just run out of it by one with more speed. Truthfully, Fanunalter would’ve been unlucky had he not got up, stopped in her run several times. Dubai form working out for once. Nationalism looks another to take out of the race. Had a fair bit to find on form, but well thought of by his stable who have a good record with older horses first time out. Started favourite for the Cambridgeshire and (possibly significantly) gelded since last seen on a racecourse. Despite pulling quite hard early-on with a modest pace, finished fastest of all on the outer for a close 4th. Awzaan went well for a long way, didn’t stay and be better at 7f or even 6. Premio Loco ran a stinker. Not suited by the slow pace, but never looked to be 100% happy.
Possibly should have backed just the two main bets each way, but worried about non-runners producing a seven runner race.2011 Epsom Derby
26 points @ 10/1 (b365 bog) Seville
13 points @ 8/1 (PP) SevilleReturn 60 Points
50 points @ 5/2 (WH) Carlton House
3rd
3rd Return 40 points*
10 points @ 28/1 (C, SJ) Memphis Tennessee
10 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Masked Marvel
(119 points) * Am calling it a 119 points stake because the Carlton House lay won 20 back of my 50 point win bet (50 – 20 = 30). Have not included Carlton House in Returns.
-59 deficit
Not every winning ride is a good one.
Barzalona got the horse settled, tick. But the rest of the ride until Tattenham Corner looked poor. Did well in the straight; after initially making good ground stopped the horse hanging and regrouped for another surge. Can’t fault the ride in the straight until stupidly celebrating too soon. Premature ejection out of the saddle and pulling at the horse’s head which could easily put Pour Moi’s brakes on. Barzalona wasn’t to know the placed horses were not up to it. IF there would have been a horse of a quality less than ONE length better than second Treasure Beach; Pour Moi would NOT have won the Derby and everyone would be saying what a terrible ride. Not only was he in the wrong position. Came out of the saddle too soon which could easily have led to losing the Derby. Youthful exuberance will hopefully be tamed a little; at least leave celebration until after the post. Barzalona is a brilliant young talent, he’s proven that in other races and will certainly make a top jockey, but I think some people are caught up in the last to first, romance and celebration. Getting a horse who is only just good enough to win is a brilliant ride, not this one. Pour Moi is quite a bit better than distances showed Saturday and got Barzalona out of trouble. May yet evolve in to an exceptional racehorse. However, the quality of performance rating is not good compared to some Derbys.
Had Carlton House not missed the break, been carried wide and met slight interference and lost a shoe….. things "might" have been different. One thing that will never be known is just how much the plate affected the horse. It came off fairly close to the finish, but was it loose for some time before? Looking from the overhead(ish) camera; it’s quite evident that in the first half of the straight Carlton House gained on the leader at a faster pace than Pour Moi. My first reaction was the Queen’s horse might not have stayed so well as the French raider. But could it be Carlton House began to feel the loose plate before it came off and slowed? There’s also the possibility he wasn’t fully fit after an injury scare. Still think he’s a top class prospect if remaining sound.Second and fourth improved greatly with a test of stamina. Do wonder whether Treasure beach and Memphis Blue are slightly flattered in their proximity to the winner and third. As the better fancied horses were all held up from mid-div backwards. It’s true the winning time was the fastest of the day judging by Racing Post Standard, but within a second of a handicap. Both horses look tailor-made for the St Leger. Briefly looked as if Master O’Brien had done a Murtagh from the front.
My main bet Seville disappointed, why a horse so stamina laden and without a turn of foot was held up in the last two is baffling. Not good enough anyway, but better than finishing position indicates. Rider dropped his hands immediately as Pour Moi passed him. Did Native Khan stay? Form looks only marginally behind 2000 Guineas form. Suspect he’ll be dropped in trip anyway and may yet improve. Recital didn’t handle the track and looks increasingly temperamental. Masked Marvel doesn’t look good enough. Form of his Goodwood win not working out.
2:15 Salisbury
53 points @ 7/2 (b365)Blackdown Fair 1st
Return 238.5 points
185.5 profit
Never in any trouble, left connections thinking of Royal Ascot.3:55 Salisbury
28 points each way @ 7/2 (one fifth, b365, W)Emilio Largo 1st Return 173.6 points
(56)
117.6 profit
Stepping down in trip suited Emilio Largo, still a bit free and Queally doing well to get cover after a fast break. Soon putting the race to bed once the gap opened. Might even be effective over 6 furlongs the way he travelled.
Second and third, Sea Soldier and Moone’s My Name are nice types and should pick up races, clear of the fourth.4:30 Salisbury
35 points @ 2/1 (SJ) Istishaara
23 points @ 14/1 (SJ) Beyeh
13 points @ 9/2 (WH) Miss Chicane
-71 deficit
Disappointing; none of the three in the first 3 of just 8 runners. It’s possible Istishaara needs softer ground, found little. Beyeh was well backed late on, 7/1 from 14/1, never in it. Miss Chicane looked a proper little madam.
Winner Golden Aria back to form, came from the back in a truly run affair. Isolate in second travelled best and may be the one to take out of the race.Days Profit 232.1 points
3:05 Newbury
30 points @ 5.2/1 (betfair) Poplin
17 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Moment Of Time3rd
17 points @ 100/30 (b365) Imperial Pippin
2nd
8 points @ 8/1 (BF) Albaraka
-72 deficit
May be I should stop backing a lot of horses, losing too much on them and concentrate on the best value instead?
Thought Rumh was a short price and how wrong I was. Though she stood out in condition beforehand, looks potentially a Group class filly and now a possible for the Ribblesdale. Imperial Pippin and Moment Of time ran their races, not good enough and might be ready for a step up in trip. Former looked a little agitated in the paddock. Thought Poplin’s coat looked dull (friendless in the market) and Albaraka a touch burly on her first start since February (but well backed in to 6’s). Palm Pilot showed improved form, finishing with a rattle almost getting up for third at 40/1. But went in snatches and might not be 100% genuine.3:40 Newbury
25 points each way @ 9/2 (B365, bog, a fifth) Hairstyle
-50 deficit
This looked a very good maiden beforehand but many of the better horses failed to perform. Hairstyle came in for some support SP 7/2 unsuited by a slow pace. Although doubt whether it made any difference to the result. Might do better upped in trip to 1 ½ miles being out of Yorkshire Oaks winner Quiff. A comment that applies to second home Stella Point too. Rainbow Spings hasn’t been the same since a Group 1 4th to Misty For Me on soft ground. Her stable companion Polygon showed good speed to come through to win, showing obvious potential.4:50 Newbury
20 points @ 11/4 (sky) Four Nations2nd
17 points @ 7/2 (b365)
Anton Dolin 1st Return 76.5 points
(
Total bet Return 216.5 points
)
28 points @ 4/1 (Corals)Anton Dolin Return 140 points
(65)
151.5 profit
A race that went to plan. Well, apart from Heavenly Music being a non-runner that is. Anton Dolin well backed in to 3/1, always doing it easily. Ahern at his cheekiest, looking around for dangers throughout the last furlong and value for another two or three lengths. Could be up to defying a big hike in the weights. Four Nations in second is probably on an upward curve too. Even though no chance with the winner he came clear of the rest.
Days Profit 29.5 points6:45 Goodwood
54 points @ 7/4 (WH) Cala Santanyi2nd
-54 deficit
This looked between the two favourites in the morning. But Galiando is a good looking son of Galileo and from the bang in form yard of Jereny Noseda. Green in the paddock and in the race, rattled home once getting the knack of what was required. Cala Santanyi backed in from 7/4 to 11/10, ran as well as could be expected form-wise, just beaten by an above average newcomer. Both he and third home Puttingonthestyle should pick up their maidens, finishing clear of Sally Friday who had a poor coat.7:20 Goodwood
36 points @ 7/2 (Sky) Valencha2nd
23 points @ 14/1 (Sky) Nezami
-59 points
Stewards held an enquirey in to the improvement of the winner Truism from his poor showing on reappearance. However, he’d done the same last year to almost win here (loves Goodwood). Thing that put me off was drawn 12 of 12. As it was, a break-neck pace set it up for the hold up horses. So a poor draw turned in to a good one, Truism dropped in from wide out. though won by 3 lengths anyway. Consistency has never been his strong-suit and remains to be seen if he’s able to replicate this form. Valencha ran well in second, having to switch sharply to get a clear run. Third home Huzzah given a chance to race prominently and suited by it, albeit taken on and went too quick. Doing better than finishing position suggests. Got Nezami wrong, clearly not up to this handicap mark nowadays.7:55 Goodwood
50 points @ 3/1 (FD, W) Zain Shamardal2nd
12 points @ 39/1 One Lucky Lady
5 points @ 14/1 (b365) Rutland Boy
-67 deficit
I had Zain Shamardal and the 5/4 favourite Club Oceanic as my 9/4 joint favs in my book. Separated by a neck (in the favourite’s favour) at the line, neck and neck in the final furlong. Another win for Noseda. Both horses could go on from this. One Lucky Lady ran like a 39/1 shot, soon beaten on the turn for home after setting the pace. Rutland Boy doing ok in fourth.8:30 Goodwood
40 points @ 4/1 (b365 bog)St Augustine 1st Return 200 points
9 points @ 9/2 (WH bog) Yair Hill
(49)
151 profit
St Augustine was going best from a long way out. In truth this field didn’t look that competitive beforehand. That said, did it well. Morris taking it easy in the last half furlong and value for a bit more. Not pleased with my price even though got better than 7/2 SP. Told it was available at 11/2 on course at one point and my bog could have done with it remaining so. Yair Hill didn’t take to the blinkers, slow out the gates and never threatened to take a hand. Looks a dodgepot.3:30 Sandown
58 points @ 2.2/1 (betfair) Night Carnation
10 points @ 6/1 (b365) Dinkum Diamond2nd
-68 deficit
They’ve found the secret to Margot Did. Strange, held up she used to idle in front. Yet today no sign of it when making all. Suspect it is something to do with what happens at home. One that tracks a horse at home comes through to go two lengths clear and is eased. So on course it thinks it has done enough when hitting the front. A change of routine at home and Margot Did knows her job is to go clear. Connections deserve credit and a change of luck. Had my doubts whether such a small filly would train on, but she certainly has. Dinkum Diamond ran ok in second. Night Carnation has regressed since winning here two starts ago. Friendless in the market; I don’t like backing drifters, but too good a price (on form) to resist. Night Carnation has something to prove now.This Post Stakes 992 points, This Post Return 888.6 points,
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Have altered how I word the Lay bets (see Kingfisher’s posts below)Total Stakes 3233 points, Total Return 4052.4 points,
Total Profit 819.4 points. 25.3% Profit on Stakes.
Value Is EverythingGinge,i suggest you re-calculate your returns for the above,Laying horses to lose is a totally different ball game to backing horses to win at odds on,your calculations for the above show the equivalent to backing Carlton House to 67 points at 30/100 equating to an 87.1 profit!
St James’s Palace Stakes
12 points each way @ 14/1 (T) Dream AheadValue Is EverythingGinge,i suggest you re-calculate your returns for the above,Laying horses to lose is a totally different ball game to backing horses to win at odds on,your calculations for the above show the equivalent to backing Carlton House to 67 points at 30/100 equating to an 87.1 profit!
King,
I may not have written it in the way you would. But did explain what I meant in the original lay bets post.
eg.
"Lay:
75 points @ 2.9/1 (betfair) Blue Bunting (winning 25.86 points)
Getting half of the stake on BB back."At 2.9/1 (3.9) the potential loss of 75 points wins a profit of 25.86 points does it not? A return of 100.86 points (75 + 25.86 = 100.86)?
What are you saying the return should be?
The 87.1 points for Carlton House is a return, not profit.
67 stake (in effect) and profit of 20.1 = 87.1 return.Actually I should have said 3.3/1 and not 100/30. But as my original post said 100/30 thought I’d keep it at that. (figures of 69.99 and 20.3)
If you hit the pink button and put £20.3 points in the box:
If any other horse wins you win £20.3.
If the horse you’ve laid wins you lose £66.99Should you call the "stake" £66.99 or £20.3?
In my opinion it is £66.99 because that is the amount risked. Even though the amount taken out at the time of bet is just £20.3.Value Is EverythingWhat are you saying the return should be?
The 87.1 points for Carlton House is a return, not profit.
67 stake (in effect) and profit of 20.1 = 87.1 return.If you hit the pink button and put £20.3 points in the box:
If any other horse wins you win £20.3.
If the horse you’ve laid wins you lose £66.99Should you call the "stake" £66.99 or £20.3?
In my opinion it is £66.99 even though the amount taken out at the time is just 20.3.Ginge,i’m not understanding how you come to a profit of 20.1 points regarding your Carlton House Lay as your profit is the same as your stake,so 67 points staked makes a 67 point profit if it loses.Had it won you would have lost 223.33 points!
Depends how you mean it. The "risk" is 67 points so therefore that (in my opinion) is the stake. When you have a LAY bet the risk was 67 points and the winnings (profit) is 20 points. Return 87 points.
I was fully aware that it could be seen as meaning two different things, which was why I explained the bet at the time.
"Gingertipster":2tspblur wrote: Had:
150 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Frankel (to win 30 points)
Won’t stay.
50 points @ 5/2 (WH) Carlton House
So:
Using my Frankel winnings (30 points profit) and some (20 points) Carlton House (potential winnings) thought I’d get out of Carlton House:
to win 20 points)
If I’d said "LAY 20 points @ 100/30", that to me does not seem right, as the risk is not 20 points but 67.
Value Is Everythingeg.
"Lay:
75 points @ 2.9/1 (betfair) Blue Bunting (winning 25.86 points)
Getting half of the stake on BB back."At 2.9/1 (3.9) the potential loss of 75 points wins a profit of 25.86 points does it not? A return of 100.86 points (75 + 25.86 = 100.86)?
What are you saying the return should be?
Ginge,if you have backed Blue Bunting to win with 50 points at 9/2 and Layed the same horse to lose at 2.9 to 75 points you have a return of 75 points not 100.86 points as you suggest,culminating in a 25 point profit,(less commission)
Had Blue Bunting won you would have made a loss of 25 points.
You do realise that when you Lay a horse to lose you only win as profit the equivalent to what you are prepared to stake as the wager,you are adding your profit from both wagers to your original Lay bet return,it doesn’t work like that i’m afraid!I’m no expert on laying horses but I’d imagine that if I wanted to lay a horse at 5/1, and €50 was what I was willing to risk, then €10 would be the potential profit, no? And therefore if the horse lost I would get a return of €60.
In Gingertipster’s case, had Blue Bunting won he would have won £150. £50 @ 9/2 returns £275. Then subtract the stake and the £75 he laid and bobs your uncle: he’s made a profit of £150.
Exactly THM,
King,
Epsom Oaks
17 points @ 12/1 (pp) Havant50 points @ 9/2 (Skybet) Blue Bunting
6 points @ 25/1 (Tote) Wonder Of Wonders 2nd
8 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Misty For Me
3 points @ 20/1 (b365) Siren’s Song
(58.14) Am calling it 58.14 stake because the Lay was playing about with potential winnings and am not including the Return in results.
-58.14 deficit50 points were risked @ 9/2 (50 x 4.5 = 225) would have won 225 points. Potential Return of (225 + 50 = 275) 275 points.
With my lay bet:
75 points were risked @ 2.9/1 (75 ‘/, 2.9 = 25.86) to win 25.86 points. Potential Return of (25.86 + 75 = 100.86) 100.86 points.Had Blue Bunting won the Oaks I would have won 225 points from my win bet and lost 75 points from my lay bet. (225 – 75 = 150) For a total profit on the horse of 150 points.
With Blue Bunting losing I lost 50 points from my win bet and won 25.86 points from my lay bet. (-50 + 25.86 = 24.14) For a total loss on the horse of 24.14 points.
Combining the two bets on Blue Bunting, my potential loss was only 24.14 points, so I’ve counted my stake for the combined Blue Bunting bet (for my records) as 24.14 points.
As I said at the time of the lay bet, I wanted to half my liability on Blue Bunting. From 50 to around 25.
Adding the other bets:
24.14 + 17 + 6 + 8 + 3 = 58.14 points.58.14 was the amount risked on the race.
58.14 was the amount (in effect) staked.
58.14 was the amount lost on the race.Because I am counting the stake as 58.14 and not 159 (50 + 75 + 17 + 6 + 8 + 3 = 159) I am not counting the Return of 100.86 in my results. If I did count the Return as 100.86 and counted stakes as 159, then the loss is 58.14 (100.86 – 159 = 58.14). Exactly the same 58.14 I’ve counted.
I am not trying to fool anyone here. If you were right, and I’d staked the amounts you say…. then I could add a good deal more to my profit column. But sadly it is not what happened.
You might express the bet as LAY 25.86 @ 2.9/1. That is fine. But I don’t, and I made it quite clear what I meant when posting the bet.
If you go on to Betfair, Press the pink button saying 3.9 and put 25.86 in to the box. You’ll see from the column by the horses names on the left that your risked (liability) amount is £75 if the horse in question wins (figure in red) and if any other horse wins you win 25.86 (figure in green)….
Risked / liability (stake) £75
Profit £25.86.
Return £100.86 less comissionSo I don’t see what your problem is. Your way and my way are just two different ways of expressing the same thing.
Value Is Everything
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