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What have I walked in to?
I have no need to invent people Gordon Wilson.
Value Is EverythingWhat have I walked in to?
I have no need to invent people Gordon Wilson.
Oh yes you have
Mark Chapman
!!
You cant outfox a Fox Softie! What have I walked in to?
I have no need to invent people Gordon Wilson.
Oh yes you have
Mark Chapman
!!
You cant outfox a Fox Softie! One TAK (the "P" is silent in The Aftertiming King). Your 148% book instead of 100% "PROVES" you know nothing about the subject of Odds and Percentages.
Yet the fool thinks he knows enough about the subject to believe I am "faking it".
You couldn’t make it up.
Value Is EverythingYou couldn’t make it up.
You’re becoming a Master at it Mr Multi personality! Has ‘Mr Softie’ and ‘Pepe the Clown’ both got Ginger hair too?
You couldn’t make it up.
You’re becoming a Master at it Mr Multi personality! Has ‘Mr Softie’ and ‘Pepe the Clown’ both got Ginger hair too?
Nothing like a bit of Gingerphobia to ease things along.
Well, at least it isn’t grey!
Value Is EverythingYou are such a B*stard Fist!!
I’ve been playing old Ginge/Softie like a fiddle and you of all people are the first to expose him!
Nath will know if we’re right! Nath,what do you think?I reckon so, Softie joined in Aug 2010, and we all know 2 votes went walkabouts that year.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
May be Cormack could tell you whether myself and Softie are the same person?
Value Is Everything5:00 Salisbury
28 points @ 15/2 (VC) Suzi’s A Class Act* (min 13/2)
22 points @ 11/1 (VC) Stock Hill Fair* (min 17/2)
Saver:
19 points @ 11/4 (Sky) Malekov (min 5/2)Let me give you a lesson in how I stake a race Fist. My staking plan takes in to account both the
chance
I believe the horse has of winning and how much
value
I believe is in the bet.
The percentage chance I believe the horse has got (in Stock Hill Fair’s case
11%
8/1)
11
minus the best available price (in this case 11/1
8.3%
). So
11 – 8.3 = 2.7
. Follow it so far?
For this race I was not quite as confident in my figures as usual because of the heavy ground and late season racing, which can cause freak results. So instead of the normal x 5 points, today I was using x 4 points.
So x the
2.7
by
4 = 10.8
and then add the chance I believe the horse has of winning which is
11%
. So
10.8 + 11 = 21.8
rounded up to
22
points. A stake of
22 points
.
Suzi’s A Class Act I believed had a
15%
(11/2) chance of winning and she works out at
28 points
. You do the Math!
Malekov I rated as a 30% (nearest to 9/4) chance of winning, available at 11/4. Therefore, with Malekov being unproven on a soft surface I chose to make him the Saver bet. ie Getting back what I’d lose on the two main bets.
Do you understand now Fist?
As painful as it really is reading your constant drivel of percentages and your less than superb ‘Value’ seeking, the above post only confirms how far out you are with both! Quote "Malekov I rated as a 30% (nearest to 9/4) chance of winning" Of course you rated it 30% Ginge after reading the Oddschecker early price board,you wouldn’t have had a clue prior to ‘cheating’!
Hindsight shows it actually had 0% chance of winning and had it won your ‘Value’ 11/4 bet would actually have only returned your whole 69 points back so in effect you would have won nothing ‘Value Boy’!
Had ‘Suzi’s a Class act’ won at 15/2,your super ‘Value’ bet would have paid a mere 5/2……’Value’? My A*se and had your ‘Stock hill fair’ won at the healthy 11/1 again your super ‘Value’ bet returns a mere 3/1,thats S*it ‘Value’ by anyones standard!Of course your 69points all went down the pan and returned nothing but it proves yet again your ‘Value’is nothing of the sort!May be Cormack could tell you whether myself and Softie are the same person?
Cormack just sent me through some photo ID of Softie and Ginge look like twins to me……
http://i49.tinypic.com/95ykw7.jpg
Blackbeard to conquer the World
May be Cormack could tell you whether myself and Softie are the same person?
Cormack just sent me through some photo ID of Softie and Ginge look like twins to me……
http://i49.tinypic.com/95ykw7.jpg
Confirmed,confirmed! Both have the DNA of a Carrot with about as much substance,both are up to their necks in S*it before I break them and Christ they are Twins Nath! Well done!
Edited First part by Ginge.
TAK,
I’d better make things a little bit simpler for you.
Say I backed both main bets to win the same amount (including taking the losses of the other bet in to concideration).My idea of the two main bet’s chances were 15% and 11%,
15 + 11 = 26%
(which is equal to a fair
2.846/1
). Where as the two horses actual prices were 15/2 11.76% and 11/1 8.33%….
11.76 + 8.33 = a combined price of 20.09% 3.978/1
. So for the main bets I was taking a
combined
price of almost
4/1
about something I believed to have a fair combined price of almost
2.85/1
.
I was not destroying the value in one price by backing another, I was joining the two, with a saver on a third horse who I also thought was value. Which of course would need to be included in the profit made in the bet…
Just as you haven’t destroyed the value on Dawn Approach by backing Cristaforo Colombo. ie You need to take in to account the other bet as well. Funny how you always seem to think it works just one way, isn’t it?
Value Is EverythingHad ‘Suzi’s a Class act’ won at 15/2,your super ‘Value’ bet would have paid a mere 5/2……’Value’? My A*se and had your ‘Stock hill fair’ won at the healthy 11/1 again your super ‘Value’ bet returns a mere 3/1,thats S*it ‘Value’ by anyones standard!
Of course if you want to look at it that way TAK, please do…
Your 2000 Guineas stakes (including Christoforo Colombo) and the each way parts to both Christo and Dawn Approach mean you’ve staked a total so far of £1,300 on the race…
And if Dawn Approach wins you’ll make a profit of £10,000. So despite backing backing the horse all rates down from 25/1, what you’ve actually got is a price of 10000 ‘/, 1300 = 7.69/1. A little over
15/2
.
Now, if I’d backed a horse almost a year before the race in qestion, 15/2 would seem "S*it value" to me too. Sorry mate, you can’t apply rules to my bets without applying the same rules to your own. Now, if I were you, I wouldn’t b*gg*r about with each way savers; I’d have taken the full 25/1 win only and laid it back as a saver later, at a smaller price. But each to his own.
Value Is EverythingYou know what amazes me Softie? The fact that you have the same typing habit as Ginger does…little dots like those and you have only made 14 posts all in one thread. Not one post anywhere else
Can’t wait for Pepe to turn up who does the same…little dots.
He joined out of the blue and came straight to Gingers thread……didn’t go to horse racing like normal people do when starting and finding their way around………..straight to the famous Gingerbread man’s thread.
Wish I was famous
So I reckon we got Ginge MkI, Ginge MkII and Ginge MKIII in our midst aren’t we the lucky ones
Well Hurdy, i`ve had a good look around the site since i arrived and to date have just sat and watched, mostly ginge making profits and after timer making a tw*t out of himself. now may well be the time to contribute elsewhere as there seems to be a number of trolls on here – betfair furum must heve become too intelligent i guess.
No dots here, maybe later eh
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