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Ginge, you really must stop making these boring profits……what this thread needs is some far more exciting losses
I know Softie, I must apologise, these xxxxxxx horses keep on winning. Don’t seem to be able to stop them.
Value Is Everything2:55 Goodwood
50 points @ 5/2 (FD) Danchai* (min 9/4)15 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Princess Caetani* (min 12/1) (£15 available)
Value Is Everything3:10 Goodwood
21 points @ 20/1 (VC) Haatefina* (min 14/1)One more main bet to come in this race.
Value Is Everything3:10 Goodwood
21 points @ 20/1 (VC) Haatefina* (min 14/1)One more main bet to come in this race.
45 points @ 3/1 (VC) Surge Ahead* (min 11/4)
Value Is Everything4:20 Goodwood
Saver first
25 points @ 11/4 (VC) Excellent Result (min 5/2)Value Is Everything4:20 Goodwood
Saver first
25 points @ 11/4 (VC) Excellent Result (min 5/2)not there anymore with VC but it is with sporting
Value Is EverythingGood luck with Danchai, can’t have that race at Hamilton was an awful maiden in awful conditions!
4:20 Goodwood
Saver first
25 points @ 11/4 (VC) Excellent Result (min 5/2)27 points @ 3.7/1 (betfair) Another Cocktail* (min 3/1) (£27 Available)
Value Is Everything4:20 Goodwood
Saver first
25 points @ 11/4 (VC) Excellent Result (min 5/2)27 points @ 3.7/1 (betfair) Another Cocktail* (min 3/1) (£27 Available)
Another:
30 points @ 3.7/1 (betfair) Another Cocktail* (min 3/1) (£34 available)Value Is Everything4:20 Goodwood
Saver first
25 points @ 11/4 (VC) Excellent Result (min 5/2)27 points @ 3.7/1 (betfair) Another Cocktail* (min 3/1) (£27 Available)
Another:
30 points @ 3.7/1 (betfair) Another Cocktail* (min 3/1) (£34 available)Before anyone thinks the available amount is the same – 3.7/1 has come and gone at least a couple of times since the first bet.
Value Is EverythingThanks tb,
Good luck with Danchai, can’t have that race at Hamilton was an awful maiden in awful conditions!
Dunchai is out to 3/1 now tb, so plenty of others agree with you. I just think it was Dunchai’s first run for the in form Haggas yard and may have plenty more improvement. Although I wouldn’t like to see the ground drying out too much for him, at least (if it was the stamina test he needed last time (in heavy)) it should suit.
My Other bet in the Princess Caetani has shortened up a lot, now only 9/1. She has the ground for the first time since her win (albeit in a 3 runner race where the other two didn’t handle it) at Salisbury.
Most of my other bets have shortened up too, which is a good sign.
Good luck with your betting today.
Value Is EverythingGT,
I regularly read your thread and there’s no doubting the strategy you employ works for yourself. I’ve never been adverse to backing 2 or 3 or more in a race if I consider a selection to be overpriced. There’s nothing wrong with that strategy if it’s profitable IMO.
Typically I adopt this approach in big field handicaps like the Hunt Cup or Festival races.
I note you are happy to save on shorter priced selections and often this reduces the loss on a race or gives you a break even return. Do you ever think you’d be better off simply saving your money on said races and saving your stakes for firmer selections?
As always best of luck with your betting.
OD,
Just because I might back two or three horses in a race, does not mean I am less confident about each horse. If I work out a horse’s chance as a race fair 25% (3/1) and is available at 4/1… I am equally confident about its chance whether the only selection in a race or one of four selections.
I do have a "margin for error", so anything which is (imo) only marginal value – won’t be backed anyway. ie If I believe something is a fair 20% (4/1) chance of winning, I won’t back it at 9/2 but will at 5/1 or bigger. Cuts down on the number of bets (even though it may not seem like it)
. Vast majority of main bet selections will be the "very best value" in the race with savers on the others. Exceptions being if the trainer is in poor form, where I might switch it to a saver.Have thought in the past of concentrating more on the "very best value" selection in each race (either win only or each way)… and not backing the rest. Will one day look through my bets and see what does work out best. However, do believe having more bets in each race helps my confidence anyway, so in turn – it keeps me looking at races in the same way as I’ve been successful in the past. ie With backing just one selection – A losing run may well cause me to come to the wrong conclusion as to who’s the value bet/s is/are.
Sorry, that’s probably as clear as mud OD.
Value Is EverythingHi GT,
No your thoughts make perfect sense…..to me anyhow! There’s more than one way to skin a cat and your approach won’t work for everyone but your records suggest it does the business for you.
I have to say I’ve cut back on my own "scattergun" approach this year and feel better for it, and in all honesty, haven’t missed many winners that I may have backed in previous years. Basically my strongest selections give me most profit and the savers boost turnover (and confidence) but in the long run break even or return a loss. Taking a step back and reviewing your results is absolutely key for anyone that takes their betting seriously no matter if they have one bet a week or fifty.
Like I say each to their own and best of luck!
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