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Don’t waste your money backing each way ante-post Captain. Especially when the race is so far away. Only time it’s worth doing that this far out is if the race has an odds-on / short priced fav. Nothing wrong with backing two horses win only though if you fancey them both. Effectively doubling your risk with each way betting if one or both don’t run is risky. Can always lay them later on as the saver part of the bet or back them on the place only market nearer off time. However, if Laddies aren’t even offering a price, could be they (Mike Dillon) knows she’s injured or something. I’d have thought if they fancy her she’d have a price next to her name, just a shorter one. As practically every bookmaker has Kissed at 16/1, you’re not going to lose anything by waiting a bit longer. Just keep an eye on the market for any movement.
Value Is EverythingBreeders Cup Turf
28 points @ 9/2 (PP) Sea Moon
22 points @ 6/1 (WH) MiddayValue Is EverythingBreeders Cup Mile
48 points @ 9/4 (BSQ) Goldikova7 points @ 7/1 (L) Strong Suit
Value Is EverythingVery well done to you, Ginger. Seriously impressive work since April, and along with Imperial Call and Carvillshill the best ongoing Lays and Plays thread there’s been on TRF since I started logging in, imo.
Why you don’t apply this logic to your main board postings is one of life’s great mysteries.
Top notch, Sir!
Very well done to you, Ginger. Seriously impressive work since April, and along with Imperial Call and Carvillshill the best ongoing Lays and Plays thread there’s been on TRF since I started logging in, imo.
Why you don’t apply this logic to your main board postings is one of life’s great mysteries.
Top notch, Sir!
Very kind of you to put me in the same league as those two eminent tipsters Cav.
Will do my last p/l once I’ve finished my totetentofollow lists and this weekend’s jumps punting is over.
Thanks
Mark
Value Is Everything2:05 Newmarket
51 points @ 5/2 (WH) Chachamaidee (SP 7/4) 2nd
34 points @ 6/4 (WH) Strong Suit (SP 13/8 bog)1st
Return 89.25 points
(85)
+4.25 Profit
Looked a two horse race. In fact Chachamaidee (well backed 7/4 from 5/2) was below form, only just managing to get second. Strong Suit impressive in his Breeders Cup prep, but doubts about stamina remain for a mile.Middle Park Stakes Newmarket
20 points each way @ 14/1 (VC bog) Rebellious Guest (SP 8/1)
23 points @ 11/2 (PP bog) Bapak Chinta (SP 11/2)
13 points @ 5/1 (PP bog) Casper Netcher (SP 5/1)
-56 Deficit
Six horses within a length and a half, this looks a disappointing Group 1. Bapak Chinta obviously amiss, almost pulled up after a long lay off. Rebellious Guest seemed not good enough despite being well backed (14/1 in to 8’s). Casper Netcher a little unlucky. Slowly away and didn’t seem to handle the dip and unclear run, making ground hand over fist. Fifth, but only beaten just over a length. First four home all ridden prominently. Can’t see the winner Crusade making a top class three year old, despite his size.Dewhurst Stakes Newmarket
42 points @ 4/1 (PP bog) Ektihaam (SP 9/1)
12 points @ 7/2 (PP bog) Bronterre (SP 100/30)
19 points @ 7/2 (PP bog) Bronterre
-73 Deficit
Another sub-standard two year old Group 1, although the winner Parish Hall has scope to improve at middle distances next year. Genuine too, fighting back after looking beaten. Favourite Power didn’t get the clearest of runs in second, may be the best of these now, but seems an exposed two year old type. Again five horses covered by around a length and a half. Everyone knew about Ektihaam bar me, friendless out to 9/1 fom 4’s! Does have a markedly round action, hopefully he’s ok. Bronterre wasn’t good enough, not beaten far in fourth.4:25 Newmarket
28 points each way @ 7/2 (L 1/4 odds) Pimpernel (SP 5/2)2nd
Return 52.5 points
(56)
-3.5 Deficit
Pimpernel (7/2 in to 5/2) ran her race, just not good enough for the impressive winner Wading. Aidan O’Brien’s filly looked a Classic winner in the making, for either Guinees and/or Oaks. I’ve backed her for both. Wading is bred to be better at middle distances. Sire Montjeu hasn’t had a Group 1 three year old miler yet. She is also grand daughter of Urban Sea which makes her a close relation of Sea The Stars. Sea The Stars won the 2000 before going on to better things at middle distances. Wading certainly showed enough speed to win this 7f Group 2, to suggest she’ll be fully effective at just a furlong further come the Spring.Days Stakes 270, Return 141.75,
3:10 Goodwood
21 points @ 7/1 (PP) Point Made (SP 20/1) 3rd
17 points @ 14/1 (Corals) Philipstown (SP 16/1)
11 points @ 9/2 (VC) Biba Diva (SP 9/2)
11 points @ 9/2 (VC) Poetic Lord (SP 11/4)1st
Return 60.5 points
(60)
+0.5 profit
So long ago, can’t remember the race!3:40 Goodwood
35 points @ 7/1 (betfair) Diamond Belle (SP 5/1)
18 points @ 9/4 (a place betfair) Diamond Belle
-53 Deficit
Diamond Belle well backed 5/1 from 7’s, never looked dangerous, racing in the middle of the track.4:10 Goodwood
44 points @ 11/4 (SJ)Aazif
(SP 11/4)
1st
Return 165 points
8 points @ 6/1 (b365) Mr Churchill (SP 9/1) 3rd
4 points @ 12/1 (SJ) Theturnofthesun (SP 9/1) 2nd
(56)+109 Profit
Particularly satisfying result. Main bet made all with saver bets coming through to ride shotgun.
Days Stakes 169, Return 225.5,
Profit 56.5 points
2:20 Salisbury
48 points @ 3.1/1 (betfair) No Compromise (SP 2/1) 2nd
17 points @ 2.9/1 (betfair) Theresnoneedforthat (SP 5/1)
-65 Deficit
No Compromise looked all over the winner when taking it up inside the final furlong. Only to either run green or worried out of it by a nose.4:30 Salisbury
40 points @ 3/1 (boyle)Ecliptic
(SP 5/4)
1st
Return 160
9 points @ 33/1 (PP) Polar Annie (SP 28/1)
9 points @ 11/2 (PP) Inler (SP 11/2)
(58)+102 Profit
Polar Annie could not dominate, with Lord Zenith taking her on. Ecliptic unbelievably well backed in to a crazt price (3/1 to 5/4). Dropped out the back and Frankie briefly seemed in trouble. Came through to win going away in the end without much whip action. Sort of performance that might suggest pattern standard. However, Ecliptic isn’t the most straightforward, sweated and appeared to have his own ideas about the game. Not one to back at a short price. Inler seems even more of a rogue, not helped by the first time blinkers. Held up and never threatened.
5:30 Salisbury
30 points @ 11/2 (VC) Billy Buttons (SP 3/1)
20 points @ 8/1 (B365) Miss Topsy Turvy (9/1)
16 points @ 12/1 (b365 Boston Blue (SP 16/1)
6 points @ 11/1 (WH) Devoted (SP 17/2)
-72 Deficit
May be Billy Buttons (well backed 11/2 in to 3/1) needs to dominate. Still a maiden with three seconds to his name. However, he capitulated to such a degree all may not be well physically. Miss Topsy Turvy ran well in terms of form (close fourth) but a high head carriage and ungainly mover might suggest a temperament flaw.Days Stakes 195, Return 160,
Long Distance Cup Ascot
32 points @ 9/2 (WH bog) Times Up (SP 100/30)
13 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Colour Vision (SP 10/1) 3rd
18 points @ 5/2 (L bog) Opinion Poll (SP 12/5) 2nd
-63 Deficit
All three bets well backed. Colour Vision (21/1 to 10/1) halved in price and finishing fastest of all after switched to get a clear run. Wouldn’t have beaten the winner anyway, but this three year old is a Cup horse in the making for next year. Times Up (9/2 to 100/30) a little disappointing on the day, may yet be a force in this type of race. Been on the go some time this season. Opinion Poll, a genuine sort, like in the Gold Cup chased home Fame And Glory. In truth the Coolmore winner won with a bit in hand, turn of foot off the turn a decisive move and possibly idling. Bags of ability, but isn’t the most consistent. Judged on a market drift out to 3/1, wasn’t expected to return to form after disappointing in Irish St Leger. John Gosden deserves credit for getting Nehaam (4th) back from injury. Hopefully he’ll remain sound to fulfil his potential. Great race to start Champions Day.2:25 Ascot
18 points @ 12/1 (VC) Wizz Kid (SP 8/1) 2nd
10 points @ 33/1 (L) Dafeef (SP 25/1)
14 points @ 3/1 (L) Deacon Blues (SP 5/2)1st
Return 56 points
12 points @ 7/2 (WH) Moonlight Cloud (100/30)
(54)
+2 profit
My only winner on Champions Day, and it had to be a saver beating the main bet! Both came in for support. Deacon Blues (3/1 to 5/2) has produced Group 1 class performances in (at least officially) lesser quality races. Always going well up with the pace and never looking in any danger. Wizz Kid (12/1 to 8/1) deserves a good prize. Coming soon after not getting the clearest of runs in the Abbeye (5th). Again coming through late but no excuses this time. Dafeef probably has ability but not the inclination. Moonlight Cloud was disappointing, although a never nearer 5th. First two definitely the ones to take out of it for next year.3:00 Ascot
43 points @ 7/2 (L bog) Vita Nova (SP 7/2)
13 points @ 4/1 (L bog) Ferdoos (SP 4/1)
7 points @ 8/1 (L bog) Crystal Capella (SP 6/1)
-63 Deficit
Kicking myself! Foolish workings out. Probably the old mug punter’s thing about backing horses that either owe you money or have done well for you before. Vita Nova injured since her last run. Ferdoos absent since May and Crystal Capella not been the same since winning on rain softened ground in July. Yet I go and back all three when (looking back at it) was there for an upset / another filly to win. Dancing Rain like Epsom making all. However, this time it was fair and square, run at a good pace. Bible Belt going up in trip, possibly failed to get home in second.3:35 Ascot
16 points each way @ 8/1 (VC bog bwithout Frankel) Dick Turpin
6 points @ 43/1 (betfair with Frankel) Dick Turpin (SP 14/1)
-38 Deficit
Dick Turpin exceptionally well backed 43/1 in to 14/1, although in truth overdone. One place out of getting something back. Soumillon kept him to the rail while everyone else that mattered went centre. Doesn’t matter. What a wonderful performance! Frankel once again magnificent. Going 4 lengths clear of old Greenham rival and subsequent Hungerford and Moulin winner Exclamation. With Marois and Coronation winner Immortal Verse beaten a total of 7½ lengths back in third. The best performance we’ve seen in decades. Looking ahead to next year, there’s talk of going up to 1¼m. Frankel is much more settled these days and getting better, but did pull a bit in the early stages here. Still not an ideal ten furlong horse, yet.4:10 Ascot
12 points each way @ 25/1 (L bog) Green Destiny (SP 14/1)
15 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Snow Fairy (SP 8/1) 3rd
4 points @ 100/1 (L bog) Ransom Note (SP 40/1)
9 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Midday (SP 8/1) 4th
21 points @ 5/2 (b365) So You Think (SP 7/4) 2nd
-73 Deficit
So You Think and Snow Fairy have finished close together in their last three outings. Half a length separating them in both Irish and English Champion Stakes. With So You Think coming off worst in only the Arc, probably inconvenienced by being held up so far off the pace, slightly below form there. Cirrus Des Aigles did well to progress past those two. Green Destiny (25/1 to 14/1) has shown a lot of improvement this season, but hasn’t been that consistent. This another one of his disappointing runs. Midday a little below form and Nathaniel predictably outpaced. Certainly a race well up to standard of a “Champion” Stakes and a better one than most recent Newmarket versions.Days Stakes 291, Return 56,
1:40 Newbury
42 points @ 100/30 (b365) Westwiththenight (SP 7/4) 2nd
7 points @ 6/1 (VC) Estrela (SP 6/1)1st
Return 49 points
(49)
0 profit
Looked a two horse race and so it proved, just picked the wrong one for the main bet. Westwiththenight exceptionally well backed, but it was Estrela who went clear. Looking a decent filly in the making.2:15 Newbury
40 points @ 7/2 (WH) Saigon (SP 15/8) 2nd
7 points @ 7/1 (WH) Nawwaar (SP 8/1)
9 points @ 12/1 (b365) Oxford Charley (SP 14/1)
-56 Deficit
Saigon very unlucky not to reward market support (7/2 in to 15/8), would probably have won with a clear run through. Nawwaar hadn’t run since winning his maiden at Glorious Goodwood, and didn’t fire. Oxford Charley beat Estrela last time but also disappointed.2:45 Newbury
29 points @ 11/2 (WH)Beaten Up
(SP 7/2)
1st
Return 156.3 (incl R4) points
27 points @ 11/2 (SJ) Mohedian Lady (SP 3/1) 3rd
14 points @ 4/1 (WH) Al Khazeem (SP 5/2) 2nd
(70)+86.3 Profit
It’s three from three for Beaten Up, coming through to win easily despite pulling hard for a long way. Could well improve in to an even better racehorse than his half brother, same connections Harris Tweed. Unlike that one, Beaten Up seems best held up for a late run. One to look out for next season.
Racing Post Trophy
50 points @ 3/1 (L) Fencing (SP 9/4) 3rd
13 points @ 16/1 (L) Learn (SP 7/1) 4th
-63 Deficit
On form Camalot had no right to be anywhere near his early price. However, this was one of those occasions where the jungle drums were right. Always going well and shooting clear with in the manner of a top class colt. Connections may have doubts about going for the 2000 Guineas, considering what happened to St Nicholas Abbey. But that horse was not seen again for 11 months and something probably amiss physically. Although by Monjeu, Camalot is one his trainer can say quite rightly “listen, this horse shows so much speed”. It’s a little disconcerting Camalot is 6/1 with Ladbrokes for Newmarket (only 7/2 in other places) as Mike Dillon usually has the ear to Ballydoyle. Camalot likely to be effective at a mile early on in his three year old career and deserves his chance at Headquarters before stepped up to the Derby. For which he’s the obvious 7/2 fav. Zip Top ran well in second, but does not have the scope of the winner or third for improvement at three. Fencing was well backed 3/1 to 9/4, had some minor training problems beforehand. One of the best looking two year olds I saw all year and could yet develop in to a classic contender. However, looking at his breeding, not many Street Cry’s get 12 furlongs, although was by a 12 furlong winner who was successful in French Oaks. Learn was massively over-priced in the morning (16/1 in to 7/1) set the pace but didn’t have a turn of foot and outpaced. Should be suited by middle distances and more at three. By Galileo out of a 12 furlong winner.4:20 Newbury
50 points @ 1.8/1 (betfair)Shirocco Star
(SP 3/1)
1st
Return 140 points
+90 Profit
isn’t as big as most Hughie Morrisson two year olds and sweating up and on her toes in the paddock. Probably why so friendless in the market (1.8/1 to 3/1). Not the best temperament, wandering and interfering with the second. Thankfully not demoted. Has ability, but I won’t be following her.
Days Stakes 288, Return 345.3,
Profit 57.3 points
Breeders Cup Turf
28 points @ 9/2 (PP) Sea Moon (SP 7/2) 2nd
22 points @ 6/1 (WH) Midday (SP 6/1)
-50 Deficit
Sea Moon didn’t a test of stamina, but ran well enough in the circumstances. After working out St Nicholas Abbey to be the most likely European raider to race prominently, should’ve backed him. However, he was settled in behind and looked to me to be given plenty to do by young O’Brien. Yet showed a tremendous turn of foot to win. It’s possible St Nicholas Abbey is just beginning to fulfil his true potential. Shouldn’t have backed Midday, Ascot run suggesting she was over the top. Having backed her pretty much all year, loyalty meant my working out was flawed.Breeders Cup Mile
48 points @ 9/4 (BSQ) Goldikova (SP 5/4) 3rd
7 points @ 7/1 (L) Strong Suit (SP 13/2)
-55 Deficit
Should’ve saved on Goldikova by backing her back on betfair. It was obvious she was going to be backed late. Sad she could not make it four Breeders Cup wins. Strong Suit is unlikely to get a mile anywhere else, but ran poorly anyway. Slight interference making no difference.Breeders Cup Classic
25 points each way @ 6/1 (FD) So You Think (SP 4/1)
-50 Deficit
Silly bet to do each way when a horse will either act on the dirt or not. Also reminded me why I said I would not bet on the Breeders Cup. Moore gave So You Think the “full treatment”. Detrimental to his chance in my opinion though he would not have won or been placed. Shown in the past So You Think goes well with a quick reappearance, but after a hectic season this was one race too many. Can’t blame connections for having a go with the race having a sub-standard look to it.Days Stakes 155, Return 0,
This Post Stakes 1368, This Post Return 928.55,
This Post
Total Stakes 14135.13 points, Total Return 15874.57 points
TOTAL SEASON PROFIT 1739.44 points
Profit On Stakes 12.3%Unlikely to have any more flat bets this season, probably be back when the turf gets under way next year.
EDIT: Now gone through the thread and taken out
5% betfair commission where aplicable. (-80.99)
So Now:
2011 Total Stakes 14135.13 points
2011 Total Return 15793.58 pointsTOTAL 2011 PROFIT 1658.45 points
Profit On Stakes
11.73%
Value Is EverythingFirst bet of the new season.
6:00 Meydan
50 points @ 3/1 (WH) Cirrus Des Aigles
10 points @ 5/1 (L) Beaten UpValue Is EverythingWant to be against
St Nicholas Abbey
here. Needed first run of the season last year (like a lot of Aidan’s) and ran poorly in the Guineas first time up too. In the end didn’t have much to beat in Breeders Cup Turf, with many of the fancied horses disappointing. Master O’Brien in the saddle is a promising youngster, but hardly a positive against the best jockeys in the World.
CIRRUS DES AIGLES
himself was disappointing on reappearance, but that was a slowly run prep on polytrack. Likely to come on a good deal. Form of the Champion Stakes at Ascot looks rock solid. So You Think, Snow Fairy, Midday and Nathaniel chasing him home. Times on the day suggested it was firmer than the official "good". That remains Cirrus Des Aigles’ best effort. Will probably be equally effective at 1m4f, 10 length winner of a Group 2 over half a furlong further. Olivier Pesleir rides. 3/1 is too big to ignore, must have a better than 25% chance.
Unbeaten
Beaten Up
went in to my notebook as a Group 1 winner in the making at Newbury. Trouble is he went in to plenty of other notebooks too. Won St Simon comfortably despite pulling for much of the way. Half brother to Harris Tweed. Fully expect him to win at the top level before season’s out, however, may have a bit too much to do in one go, if Cirrus is on song. Murtagh a plus. Worth a saver at 5/1.
Treasure Beach
was a below average Irish Derby winner. Needs to improve to figure here and looked fully exposed at three.
The others are relying on the big two to falter.
Value Is EverythingResults:
6:00 Meydan
50 points @ 3/1 (WH)Cirrus Des Aigles 1st
Return 200 points
10 points @ 5/1 (L) Beaten Up
(60)+140
2012 Stakes 60, 2012 Return 200,
2012 Profit +140 points
Total staked 14195.13, Total Return 16074.57,
Total Profit +1879.44 points
Profit On Stakes
13.2%
Value Is Everything2012 2000 Guineas:
18 points @ 20/1 (WH) Harbour Watch
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Fencing
Best looking 2 year old I saw last season. Won well at Newbury Met with a setback before good placed effort behind Camalot at Donny. Easy winner of listed Newbury race by 2 1/2 lengths from today’s Free Handicap winner Telwaar. Going well at home and runs in the Greenham on Saturday.
Value Is Everything2012 2000 Guineas:
18 points @ 20/1 (WH) Harbour Watch
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Fencing
Best looking 2 year old I saw last season. Won well at Newbury Met with a setback before good placed effort behind Camalot at Donny. Easy winner of listed Newbury race by 2 1/2 lengths from today’s Free Handicap winner Telwaar. Going well at home and runs in the Greenham on Saturday.
Saver:
16 points @ 5/2 (WH) CamalotValue Is Everything2012 2000 Guineas:
18 points @ 20/1 (WH) Harbour Watch
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Fencing
Best looking 2 year old I saw last season. Won well at Newbury Met with a setback before good placed effort behind Camalot at Donny. Easy winner of listed Newbury race by 2 1/2 lengths from today’s Free Handicap winner Telwaar. Going well at home and runs in the Greenham on Saturday.
Saver:
16 points @ 5/2 (WH) Camalot27 points @ 12/1 (L) Trumpet Major
Value Is Everything
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