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2:45 Epsom
46 points @ 3/1 Graphic* (min 11/4)
30 points @ 13/2 French Navy* (min 11/2)Value Is EverythingOaks
Already backed:
76 points @ 4/1 (FD) Taghrooda* (min 3/1)
14 points @ 33/1 (WH) Casual Smile* (min 25/1)
20 points @ 9/2 (Sporting) Marvellous (min 4/1)2 points @ 66/1 (VC) Inchila (min 66/1)
Now:
6 points @ 21/1 (betfair) Amazing Maria (min 20/1) (£492 available)Value Is EverythingTwo good winners today from two races.
+411 points on the day.Difficult to know what to do for tomorrow. Epsom could be anything from soft to good-firm. Worked out the Derby for "Good" ground and the only horse I make value (and by some way) is the one already backed as the main bet – True Story. But if it did turn soft it would be against him (although taking in to account how much value he’d be on a sound surface, likely to be still some value on soft, may lengthen further still if people are put off because of the ground.
Value Is EverythingTwo good winners today from two races.
+411 points on the day.Difficult to know what to do for tomorrow. Epsom could be anything from soft to good-firm. Worked out the Derby for "Good" ground and the only horse I make value (and by some way) is the one already backed as the main bet – True Story.
Apparently True Story was a non-trier in the Dante:
“I just think he has a better turn of foot,” he says of True Story, who finished third in the Dante Stakes at York behind subsequent French Derby winner The Grey Gatsby.
“He is a powerful galloper, and has given me all the right signals that he can win.
“He would have won any of the other Derbies I have been involved in. This Derby is exceptional, the best for a long, long time.
"Don’t forget you have Australia, who Aidan O’Brien claims is the best horse he has ever trained.”
Much depends, however, on True Story and the ground. “When it was soft at York he couldn’t get hold of it,” Fallon acknowledges.
“But he wasn’t beaten by much and I resisted being too hard on him. I was thinking to Epsom all the time.”But maybe best not to take everything Mr Fallon says at face value.
I don’t think any jockey is ever "too hard on him" in a trial Kasparov; unless it’s the Guineas. No jockey wants to leave the Derby behind in a prep. I do agree with Fallon, how much rain they get between now and off time will be crucial for so many runners, not only to True Story. Australia will drift even further on soft ground, where as 2/1 will look big if it’s dry.
Kingston Hill, Orchestra, Western Hymn, Fascinating Rock and Romsdal’s chances will all be improved for significant rain.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
I live in Surrey and the rain started quite hard here about 30mins ago and has been quite consistent since. Holding off placing any more bets until later but it look like the rain will continue.
2:40 Epsom
20 points each way @ 14/1 Ambivalent* (min 11/1)32 points @ 5/4 (FD) Cirrus Des Aigles (min 11/10)
Value Is EverythingI live in Surrey and the rain started quite hard here about 30mins ago and has been quite consistent since. Holding off placing any more bets until later but it look like the rain will continue.
Times yesterday suggested it was at least bordering on good-firm. Without rain overnight probably was good-firm at 6:00am. So with the amount of rain this morning probably good now.
Keep us informed Ben.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Will do Ginge, the rains stopped now but looking at forecasts/outside it looks like it’ll start again soon. Pretty sure it rained early this morning too (6am or so) by the look of the grass when I woke up earlier.
I like the
Ambivilant
e/w bet a lot, would expect Talent and Flintshire won’t quite be 100% fit first time out and the latter will be troubled by the rain, also Talent’s form on paper isn’t really much better than Ambivilant so don’t see the difference in their odds being correct. Empoli has to have a big question mark over its head having never run in the UK before and that always puts me off a horse. I doubt Joshua Tree is good enough and his lackluster performance in this race last year has to cast doubts.
Battalion
maybe worth a small e/w bet too.
Epsom clerk said on ATR this morning expecting some showers this morning but dry from midday
Tweet from Andrew Cooper 14 mins ago
"5mm rain in last shower @EpsomRacecourse on top of the 1mm earlier. Eased. Off for a walk to assess."Andrew Cooper on walking @EpsomRacecourse: "It looks as if we have had the worst of the rain. It should be clearer from now on." #Derby2014
Epsom Derby:
37 points @ 14/1 (C) True Story* (min 9/1)22 points @ 7/4 (B365) Australia (min 7/4)
21 points @ 16/1 (B365) Orchestra* (min 15/1)
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Arod* (min 18/1)Value Is EverythingWill do Ginge, the rains stopped now but looking at forecasts/outside it looks like it’ll start again soon. Pretty sure it rained early this morning too (6am or so) by the look of the grass when I woke up earlier.
I like the
Ambivilant
e/w bet a lot, would expect Talent and Flintshire won’t quite be 100% fit first time out and the latter will be troubled by the rain, also Talent’s form on paper isn’t really much better than Ambivilant so don’t see the difference in their odds being correct. Empoli has to have a big question mark over its head having never run in the UK before and that always puts me off a horse. I doubt Joshua Tree is good enough and his lackluster performance in this race last year has to cast doubts.
Battalion
maybe worth a small e/w bet too.
That’s pretty much exactly the way I see it Ben. I also considered Battalion each way, his handicap form isn’t that far behind Ambivalent and co and from a stable in tremendous form. Was improving fast before last time’s poor showing. If Newbury ws a blip then 33/1 looks value. However, I was there that day, he sweated up and seemed to resent being taken on for the lead, racing with head high. Ambivalent and Cirrus can race prominently, but neither are stamina horses at the trip so doubt they’ll take Battalion on; but Joshua Tree might.
Value Is EverythingWell done yesterday Ginge., – latest from Racing Post live:-
Epsom latest: Fresh ground
The rail which dolled out the far side of the course by up to six yards from the mile start to the winning post yesterday has been removed, meaning there is fresh ground by that rail.
By Lewis Porteous, live from Epsom 13 mins ago
EpsomLive Reporter
Epsom latest: View on the ground
A member of Brian Meehan’s team beat Andrew Cooper back to the finishing post after walking the course with a rather big stick.
He told me: "It’s beautiful good ground after that rain"Not sure why you are crowing about 200 pages, we have to put up with the equivalent of 200 pages of your drivel every time we go racing!!
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