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What price do you make Toormore, ginge?
I’m holding out for at least evens. Think if it was a group 1 race odds on would be fair enough.I make Toormore’s fair price as Evens Nathan, and wouldn’t be surprised if you’ll get it some time tomorrow, although probably not straight away. Personally, I’d want 11/10 or more to back him.
My 100% Book:
Toormore 50% Evens, Take 11/10 or more
Be Ready 32% 85/40, Take 5/2+
Postponed 5.5% 18/1, Take 25/1+
Anjaal 4.75% 20/1, Take 28/1+
The Grey Gatsby 4% 25/1, Take 33/1+
Patentar 3.75% 25/1 ,Take 40/1+Toormore made the running in Ireland, do you think Moore will want to do the same tomorrow? If not I can see the Craven turning in to a sprint.
Suspect they’ll want to "teach him" and want as easy a prep run as possible. The 3 lbs penalty seems to be under-played in the market; this is no penalty kick. Be Ready is a big player, one of (if not THE) best looking 2 year olds I saw last season, spitting image of his sire.Value Is Everything4:40 Newmarket
52 points @ 9/2 (FD) Fencing* (min 4/1)42 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Just The Judge* (min 7/2)(£56 available)
Value Is Everything4:40 Newmarket
52 points @ 9/2 (FD) Fencing* (min 4/1)42 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Just The Judge* (min 7/2)(£56 available)
part saver:
5 points @ 11/1 (L) Danadana (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingI was told by the stable lad of Just The Judge that she is ready to win today.
Value Is EverythingUnlucky today Mark I had mushir as a saver and Aeolus who ran a great race, miracle of medinah was disappointing. You didn’t do anything wrong that’s for sure better luck tommorow.
Thanks Sam,
Think you were more unlucky with Aeolus than I was with Mushir Sam. With the same information I’d have the same bets as I did yesterday, got to expect a losing day like that from time to time. Just hope I don’t have two in a row!
Value Is EverythingI was told by the stable lad of Just The Judge that she is ready to win today.
Also had a good word for this one:
1:45 Newmarket
21 points @ 12.5/1 (betfair) Mary McPhee* (£21 available)Value Is EverythingI was told by the stable lad of Just The Judge that she is ready to win today.
Also had a good word for this one:
1:45 Newmarket
21 points @ 12.5/1 (betfair) Mary McPhee* (£21 available)saver:
PLACE MARKET:
8 points @ 3/1 (betfair) Mary McPhee (£8 available)Value Is EverythingI’m getting a bit confused here. I thought it was all about form and analysis but recently it sometimes seems to be about inside info. I don’t care how the winners are found but it looks like a change of tack. Should we be more cautious on the second kind of tip?
Also I notice Obliterator was a Jamie Spencer selection, whereas on another thread you are advising punters not to take any notice of jockey tips. Maybe a case of better to do as I say rather do as I do?
Of course, I don’t want to sound ungrateful for the selfless hours you put into this moneyspinner for the rest of us, and every good pro bettor changes approach as conditions change; I’m just looking for a bit of clarification.
I’m getting a bit confused here. I thought it was all about form and analysis but recently it sometimes seems to be about inside info. I don’t care how the winners are found but it looks like a change of tack. Should we be more cautious on the second kind of tip?
Also I notice Obliterator was a Jamie Spencer selection, whereas on another thread you are advising punters not to take any notice of jockey tips. Maybe a case of better to do as I say rather do as I do?
Of course, I don’t want to sound ungrateful for the selfless hours you put into this moneyspinner for the rest of us, and every good pro bettor changes approach as conditions change; I’m just looking for a bit of clarification.
You’re right Kasparov, I shouldn’t have put up Mary McPhee, or Obliterator. If you noticed, former had far less staked than a normal "form" bet anyway. Certainly don’t take much inside information in to account, especially jockeys; but the word I had was Jamie thought it would win the Guineas!
let alone the listed
Fielden… And if it wasn’t for (apparently) Godolphin’s best Derby horse showing his hand for the first time – Obliterator would’ve won easily. I don’t normally take any notice of inside information, but Big Bob has given me very good information in the past including Just The Judge (before she even ran) and unlike some says when a horse is
not
fancied.
With Just The Judge today, I mentioned the tip because when looking at her form you’d question what happened on final start and whether she’s going to be fit enough on reappearance. But knowing she had a valid excuse (bad foot) after Goodwood which apparently is fully recovered… and fully fit today; the fitness issues which would’ve cut in to her chance and made her a NO bet, are not so big. Making her a "value" bet.
I put the information out there Kasparov, because then TRFers can make the decision themselves whether to back them or not. However, think if there’s an unraced tip (or not a "form" tip) in future, I’ll put it up without any stakes.
I’m doing well at choosing losing bets myself at the moment, without Big Bob’s help.
Value Is Everything4:40 Newmarket
52 points @ 9/2 (FD) Fencing* (min 4/1)42 points @ 3.6/1 (betfair) Just The Judge* (min 7/2)(£56 available)
part saver:
5 points @ 11/1 (L) Danadana (min 11/1)5 points @ 39/1 (betfair) Boom And Bust (min 28/1)(£12 available)
Value Is EverythingApologies for today. Mary McBloodyphee and Just The Judge not as fit as thought judging by market drift and running. Fencing I had mainly due to trainer form, but truth is has a poor win/run ratio and awkward head carriage means I’ll be rating him with a squiggle from now on even if Timeform don’t. At Newmarket you need to take wind speed and direction in to account too. I didn’t look at the weather forcast.
When there’s a tail wind prominent runners get a big advantage (opposite with headwind). Tried to come back with the front runner Boom And Bust but left out the (Timeform Top Rated) other prominent runner… who won. 
Although Be Ready sadly looks injured, jockey looking down from mid-race and… even with the pace bias Aljamaaheer should’ve won with a better ride; that "Managain". Could still be a top class sprinter.Anyone got a brick wall I can hit my head against?
I’ll probably be seeing Big Bob tomorrow at the Lambourn Open Day.
Value Is EverythingAlthough Be Ready sadly looks injured, jockey looking down from mid-race
What was the injury?
It just looked like as pathetic a performance as you could wish to see. Made even worse by the market support and an average performance from the favourite. De Sousa was giving out negative vibes after a few hundred yards. Horse and jockey looked absolutely clueless. A jockey looking down is often straight out of the early excuse textbook.
Typically the trainer ‘could offer no explanation’. I would have thought he might have noticed any injury?
Ginger what your thoughts on 2day craven meeting any classic winners in last 2days.Had Hamza and Cloudscape in my tipping thread happy with them.How you think TRUE STORY and CLOUDSCAPE get on this season the latter was a horse i talked with Gord about because he won on same day as WESTERN HYMM.
Anyone got a brick wall I can hit my head against?
Ere you go ginge, but you realise it’s only on loan as I am sure that I will need it back at some point this Summer.
http://cur.cursors-4u.net/smilies/images1/smi20.gif
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Anyone got a brick wall I can hit my head against?
Ere you go ginge, but you realise it’s only on loan as I am sure that I will need it back at some point this Summer.
http://cur.cursors-4u.net/smilies/images1/smi20.gif
That’ll do nicely Nathan.
Value Is EverythingAlthough Be Ready sadly looks injured, jockey looking down from mid-race
What was the injury?
It just looked like as pathetic a performance as you could wish to see. Made even worse by the market support and an average performance from the favourite. De Sousa was giving out negative vibes after a few hundred yards. Horse and jockey looked absolutely clueless. A jockey looking down is often straight out of the early excuse textbook.
Typically the trainer ‘could offer no explanation’. I would have thought he might have noticed any injury?
But Be Ready wasn’t "clueless" last season Stilvi.
I could see Be Ready wasn’t moving correctly behind and Steve Mellish also saw it. Where as he’s previously been a very fluent mover. Not surprised Bin Surroor couldn’t identify anything immediately. Probably need a specialist brought in. Possibly a back problem or pulled muscles in hind quarters.
Value Is Everything
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