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2:40 Newbury
17 points @ 33/1 (L) Genzy* (min 22/1)38 points @ 4.3/1 (betfair) Aiken* (min 4/1)(£936 available)
13 points @ 5/1 (B365) Biographer (min 5/1)
(If you haven’t backed Aiken yet… If you can get the 5/1 with Ladbrokes before Pricewise tomorrow morning, suggest you take 49 points).
Value Is Everything"Gingertipster":3fnyi6b3 wrote:
2:40 Newbury
17 points @ 33/1 (L) Genzy* (min 22/1)38 points @ 4.3/1 (betfair) Aiken* (min 4/1)(£936 available)
13 points @ 5/1 (B365) Biographer (min 5/1)
(If you haven’t backed Aiken yet… If you can get the 5/1 with Ladbrokes before Pricewise tomorrow morning, suggest you take 49 points).
You are suggesting to your
army
of followers to put 49 points on ‘Aiken’ at 5/1, 17 points on ‘Genzy’ at 33/1 and 13 points on
Biographer
at 5/1???
WhenBiographer
wins comfortably tomorrow your
army
of fans will be wanting to lynch you for selling them down the river!
What should be a 65 point profit will return a bloody loss!! TAPK has a £100 win onBiographer
returning a £500 profit Ginge!
2:05 Newbury
78 points @ 6/5 (FD) Somewhat* (min Evens)
Saver:
13 points @ 6/1 (PP) Speedy Approach (min 6/1)Value Is Everything"The Ante-Post King":35wc36ue wrote:
2:40 Newbury
17 points @ 33/1 (L) Genzy* (min 22/1)38 points @ 4.3/1 (betfair) Aiken* (min 4/1)(£936 available)
13 points @ 5/1 (B365) Biographer (min 5/1)
(If you haven’t backed Aiken yet… If you can get the 5/1 with Ladbrokes before Pricewise tomorrow morning, suggest you take 49 points).
You are suggesting to your
army
of followers to put 49 points on ‘Aiken’ at 5/1, 17 points on ‘Genzy’ at 33/1 and 13 points on
Biographer
at 5/1???
WhenBiographer
wins comfortably tomorrow your
army
of fans will be wanting to lynch you for selling them down the river!
What should be a 65 point profit will return a bloody loss!! TAPK has a £100 win onBiographer
returning a £500 profit Ginge!
If my follower can get the 5/1 Gord with 49 points on Aiken he’d show a loss of -1 point on the race if the saver (Biographer) won, big deal. He can always put 1 more point on Biographer if so concerned with a -1 point loss on the race.
Of course everyone can put a "0" on the end of actual stakes/"profit" to make them sound bigger. Good luck with your £10 bet tomorrow Gord. Am sure your thread could do with a winner more than mine.
Another +349 points profit for my follower (less a small R4) yesterday.To be honest Biographer is a good shout, would’ve made it my main bet but for Lanigan’s recent form. Last of 7 and 11th of 12 his two runners today. 8th of 14, 8th of 10 and last of 13 the week’s total. They weren’t favs, but nevertheless is a little worrying; though did have a favourite win on the 6th August. Usually held up and coming back in trip, Biographer’s chance also relies on a good pace to bring undoubted stamina in to play. Not absolutely certain to get it, the two 3 year olds most likely to set the fractions. If they don’t take each other on it could prove tactical, with Biographer out of position.
Value Is Everything4:25 Newbury
60 points @ 15/8 (VC) Thomas Hobson* (min 15/8)saver:
10 points @ 10/1 (VC) Buckstay (min 10/1)Value Is EverythingMain bets Somewhat and Thomas Hobson and saver bet Gregorian winning from bets in 4 races, yesterday’s thread profit was +152.75 points with BOG. Another excellent weeks work.
Value Is EverythingInternational York
21 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Declaration Of War* (min 13/1)(£24 avaialable)Value Is EverythingInternational York
21 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Declaration Of War* (min 13/1)(£24 avaialable)27 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Trading Leather* (min 7/1)(£64 available)
Value Is EverythingAl Kazeem
obviously has the best chance of winning. Might be a little bit better than the distances he’s beaten horses, always doing just enough. But however admirable the horse is, price seems very short on actual "form" shown.
Toronado
is in my opinion a better horse than Al Kazeem, but not at this trip. Has been free and needs to be anchored even at a strongly run mile. Will he settle in a slowly run 10 furlongs? Price is not good enough for me to take the chance.
Trading Leather
also pulled hard last time, but that was when taken on and over 12 furlongs, yet still managed 2nd in the King George. Rank outsider Rewarded is (from what I can see) the only other likely front runner. So it is possible the Bolger horse will get a soft lead. With no further rain around Trading Leather is likely to get the firm ground his action prefers. Needs to improve to beat the best here, but at around 15/2 looks worth taking a chance.
Hillstar
finished one place behind Trading Leather at Ascot, but 10f is unlikely to play to his strengths, particularly if it’s slowly run. Pulled hard at Newbury when ridden prominently, so looks a hostage to pace here.
Declaration Of War
is probably not up to this class, but he’s been pretty consistent and only needs to make up 2 lengths to make up on the Charlton horse. Is 2 lengths enough to make one 5/4 and the other around 16/1? Winning distance may flatter Coolmore’s representitive, but even so price looks well worth taking. We also know he goes on most surfaces.
I’ve backed both Trading Leather @ 7.8/1 and Declaration Of War @ 16/1 as my value alternatives to the big two.
Value Is EverythingNunthorpe
35 points @ 8/1 (PP) Moviesta* (min 13/2)29 points @ 8/1 (B365) Swiss Spirit* (min 7/1)
Value Is Everything3:05 York
Saver First:
30 points @ 13/8 (SJ) Telescope (min 6/4)Value Is Everything2:30 York
54 points @ 15/8 (WH) First Flight* (min 7/4)7 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Il Paparazzi (min 8/1)(£40 available)
Value Is Everything3:05 York
Saver First:
30 points @ 13/8 (SJ) Telescope (min 6/4)48 points @ 6/1 (boyle) Secret Number* (min 5/1)
Value Is EverythingAl Kazeem
obviously has the best chance of winning. Might be a little bit better than the distances he’s beaten horses, always doing just enough. But however admirable the horse is, price seems very short on actual "form" shown.
Toronado
is in my opinion a better horse than Al Kazeem, but not at this trip. Has been free and needs to be anchored even at a strongly run mile. Will he settle in a slowly run 10 furlongs? Price is not good enough for me to take the chance.
Trading Leather
also pulled hard last time, but that was when taken on and over 12 furlongs, yet still managed 2nd in the King George. Rank outsider Rewarded is (from what I can see) the only other likely front runner. So it is possible the Bolger horse will get a soft lead. With no further rain around Trading Leather is likely to get the firm ground his action prefers. Needs to improve to beat the best here, but at around 15/2 looks worth taking a chance.
Hillstar
finished one place behind Trading Leather at Ascot, but 10f is unlikely to play to his strengths, particularly if it’s slowly run. Pulled hard at Newbury when ridden prominently, so looks a hostage to pace here.
Declaration Of War
is probably not up to this class, but he’s been pretty consistent and only needs to make up 2 lengths to make up on the Charlton horse. Is 2 lengths enough to make one 5/4 and the other around 16/1? Winning distance may flatter Coolmore’s representitive, but even so price looks well worth taking. We also know he goes on most surfaces.
I’ve backed both Trading Leather @ 7.8/1 and Declaration Of War @ 16/1 as my value alternatives to the big two.
Hope Toronado is ok.
Other than that, pleased with the result.
International York
21 points @ 16/1 (betfair) Declaration Of War* (min 13/1)(£24 avaialable)27 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Trading Leather* (min 7/1)(£64 available)
+292.2 points profit on the race.
+231.95 points profit on the day.Value Is EverythingCredit where its due! You took on the false Fav with only 2 horses and your assessment of the race was spot on.
Al Kazeem
traded at 1/2, 3 furlongs out as he was cantering all over
Trading Leather
,he hits the front and goes 1/5 in running looking all over the winner but my fellow is the toughest 3yo in training and out battles him only to be beaten by a better horse than both!
That performance byDeclaration of war
was a mirror image of his Queen Anne run and yet his Eclipse run looked for all the earth flat in comparison,he proved me wrong today for sure.Well done getting 16/1 too Ginge.
Toronado
has to be forgiven that as he clearly wasn’t right.As for
Al Kazeem
,as much as I said he’d lose today he ran better than his finishing position suggested,on soft ground he’s a player but wont beat
Trading Leather
over 11/2m on fast ground ever!
TAPK has a £100 win on
Another +349 points profit for my follower (less a small R4) yesterday.
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