- This topic has 2,646 replies, 45 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
2:40 Newbury
28 points @ 11/2 (b365) Rimth
7 points @ 9/2 (SJ) PontenuovoValue Is Everything2:05 Newbury
58 points @ 13/8 (b365) VerdantMight save on the only front runner, Poet, if he looks fit in the paddock (big sort, takes some readying). Though he’s probably better on softer anyway.
Value Is Everything2:05 Newbury
-58 Verdant
-58 points deficit2:40 Newbury
-7 Pontenuovo 4th
28 points @ 13/2 (bog)Rimth 1st
Return 210 points
(35)
+175 points profit
Staked 93 points
Return 210 pointsTotal Profit 117 points
Value Is Everythinglovely winner with Rimth mate, though I must admit that I’ve never been all that taken with Verdant, fingers burnt last year, can still feel the blisters
Yes Diamond, Verdant does seem to have two ways of running. Disappointed in him on course, not as big as some in the field and coat looked a bit dull. Stoutey not hit form yet this season. Am confident Verdant will eventually prove the best of that substandard field for the John Porter.
There isn’t much of Rimth either, but her coat was shining and is a ball of muscle.
Frankel looked well in the paddock, but quite a bit to work on. Gumm chain used to keep his exhuberance in check. Relaxed walking around. Still pulled in the race, but hopefully this will get the freshness out of him. Certainly a very good looking colt. As wil be his stable companion World Domination, once filling his frame. Bit weak and cabbage like in the prelims I thought. Constant winnieing. Considering his greeness and paddock appearance it was a mightily impressive debut. Bred to win the Derby too. However, 8 or 7/1 is skinny for any maiden winner having his first start less than 2 months from the big one.
I prefer…..
Value Is EverythingEpsom Derby:
26 points @ 10/1 (b365 bog) SevilleSeville had no right to do as well as he did as a two year old. In a short space of time, making his debut on 25th September. Reaching Group 1 level when a close second in the Racing Post within a month. Breeding suggests will not come in to his own until running over 1m4f+. By Galileo out of Arc 8th Silverskaya who won at 1m4f. Her sire Silver Hawk is a stamina influence, responsible for such as Mubtaker, Mutafaweq and Benny The Dip. Silver Hawk’s sire Roberto won the Derby. Maternal grand-dam’s sire Niniski an even greater stamina influence of Arc (Hernando) and St Leger (Minster Son) winners. Fact he came so close in a good ground Racing Post suggests he’ll have enough speed too.
Value Is EverythingHi Ginger
Would you be looking at your tip for the derby as a long term tip possibly for the leger as well.
Looking at the breeding, and this race being in relative terms less fashionable, and potential possibilities re frankel (Think he’ll be a 10f horse and a mighty one at that … but the STS was prob best at this distance and still won both a derby and the arc!!) a longer term bet on the leger would appeal to me more at this moment in time…though having said that I need to look into entries. Don’t know how this works for this race having never considered an Ante post bet on this race (Leger) so far in advance!!!
yorkiedips
Hi Yorkie,
Yes, if I were making a book on the Leger, Seville would be my favourite. Trouble is if (as I expect) up to Derby standard, he won’t be going for the Leger. Sadly, only if failing at 1m4f will he be upped in trip. Has a Derby winner run in the Leger since Reference Point? Would not bet in the Yorkshire Classic until after the Derby, probably even after the Irish Derby.
Value Is Everything3:45 Sandown
45 points @ 9/2 (WH bog) Music Show
11 points @ 4.9/1 (betfair) Cityscape
7 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Dream EaterBacking 3 horses in a 5 horse race may seem a bit strange. But I make the race:
Dick Turpin 42% 11/8
Music Show 23.5% 100/30
Cityscape 21% 4/1
Dream Eater 13.25% 13/2
Highland Knight 0.25% 400/1Don’t see why Dick Turpin should be so far in front of the rest.
Value Is EverythingI’d make Dick Turpin a 4/7 shot myself Ginge, guess that’s what it’s all about!
If we all came to the same conclusions there wouldn’t be any betting
Dick Turpin
won first time up at both 2 and 3, but ditto
Music Show
. Both stay a mile and go well on a firm surface. So has Dick Turpin really got around 3 times the chance of Music Show, like the betting suggests? I don’t think so. Channon has started the season well and won 4 of his last 13 starts. Hannon 2 from 13. So it just comes down to form.
Music Show’s has had a break, after a busy season last year. Won the Falmouth on similar ground to tomorrow, form that on a line through Rainfall and Strawberrydaqueri, should have been good enough to win the Sun Chariot too. Although she herself was over the top by then. Also won the 1000 Guineas, well sort of, she won on her side of the track. Massively disadvantaged by the draw / running down the centre. Music Show was the moral victor.
Dick Turpin’s form is a little better, against the colts, but only a little. Won the Prix Jean Prat and his defeats were just as good. Placed in the Guineas; flattered in the Foret, only a length behind Goldicova, 1/2 length behind Paco Boy. Length second behind Canford Cliffs also sounds great, but only 3/4 length in front of Hearts Of Fire, illustrates Canford Cliffs improvement to come. Even so Dick Turpin has definitely got the best chance of winning, just not an odds-on chance.Cityscape
was the one improving at the back end, winning the Joel Stakes by no less than 7 lengths from Penitent. Exceptionally good looking individual who is now filling his frame, finally endorsing the potential of his earlier years. I backed him for the 2000 Guineas ante-post. Injured in that race. Trouble is, the Joel came on a soft surface and it is possible Cityscape needs cut to produce his best these days. However, did come a good 4th under top weight in a Newbury handicap on reappearance last year on a firm surface, given a lot to do on first start in ages. So there are reasons to be hopeful. If it were soft ground though, he’d be challenging for favouritism.
Dream Eater
is inconsistent taking his over all form, but usually runs well early season. Flattered to finish so close to Goldicova and Paco Boy in the Queen Anne. Trouble free run when former went for home too early and latter had to wait for a gap. Usually travels well but sometimes finds little off the bridle. Has run well in this race before and goes well on a firm surface.
Forget the pacemaker.Value Is EverythingI’d make Dick Turpin a 4/7 shot myself Ginge, guess that’s what it’s all about!
If we all came to the same conclusions there wouldn’t be any betting
Suppose it all depends if you believe the closeness of the Canford Cliffs / Goldicova / Paco Boy form THM.
If Dick Turpin wins I can still claim I was right, having the best chance of winning on my figures.
Value Is Everythinghelp me here ginge, I’ve been trying to understand the odds tables, etc., and looking at the Dick Turpin race, I though he was at least a 75-80% chance of winning, which I make 1/3 – 1/4 odds, therefore, IMO, he’s value at 4/5? Is my science correct, even if my conclusions are wrong?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not backing a 4/5 shot, I don’t stake enough to make it worth it, but I have a couple of others today that I think are short prices but ‘value’ and will treble them up (Hamish McGonagall and Tataniano), I’d rather play all three and get 8s, than back them singles.
Gord.
Gord,
First figure + second figure = resultant figure.
Second figure ‘/, resultant figure = decimal.
Decimal X 100 = percentage.So 1/3 =
1 + 3 = 4
3 ‘/, 4 = 0.75
0.75 X 100 = 75%
1/3 = 75%Although it might be easier if you know the odds-against percentage; 100 – the odds against equvalant = odds-on percentage.
ie 3/1 = 25%
100% – 25% = 75%
Therefore 1/3 = 75%So yes Gord, if you believe Dick Turpin has a 75% to 80% chance, then @ 4/5 (55.55%), A difference between 75 and 55.55 of just under 20% (or 25% at 80%) – is a bet with a capital "B"!
Value Is Everything4:20 Sandown
32 points @ 11/2 (WH bog) Kings Gambit
13 points @ 5/2 (WH bog) AfsareValue Is Everything3:45 Sandown
45 points @ 9/2 (WH bog) Music Show
11 points @ 4.9/1 (betfair) Cityscape
7 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Dream EaterBacking 3 horses in a 5 horse race may seem a bit strange. But I make the race:
Dick Turpin 42% 11/8
Music Show 23.5% 100/30
Cityscape 21% 4/1
Dream Eater 13.25% 13/2
Highland Knight 0.25% 400/1Don’t see why Dick Turpin should be so far in front of the rest.
For someone who makes a horse have virtually twice as much chance as anything else in the race i find it somewhat surprising,no shocking that you are prepared to speculate 63 points against it,even if one point equates to a pound its still seems more than a bit of a strange philosophy imo.
edit. well done with Kings Gambit though!
It is all about price Kingfisher. if I think something is poor value, I will back against it. With however many horses I think are value.
Having said that; I think Chiswickian was right in another thread, the run of the race was always going to suit Dick Turpin. May be I got the calculations wrong and did not allow enough for the pace angle. Not so many should have been "value", (especially Dream Eater because he rarely wins anyway). But at 8/13 Dick was well worth taking on at the price. Music Show was very disappointing, possibly amiss?
DT did impress, seems to have grown too, and I’ll be putting him in a few lists of my 10 To Follow, As well as Cityscape.
Wish it was just £1 per point for that race Kingfisher.
63 points may sound a lot, but of course it all depends what scale you are comparing it with. It is roughly 63 points in a scale of 10 to 100. You could call it 6.3 points in a scale of 1 to 10.To give you some idea of my stakes:
If I thought something has a 10% (fair 9/1 shot) and it’s available at 14/1 (6.78%), it gets the difference 10 – 6.7 = 3.3 X by 4 = 13.2 + the 10 for being in my opinion a 10% chance. 13.2 + 10 = 23.2 rounded down so 23 points @ best price of 14/1.For a horse I believe to be a 60% (fair 4/6) chance available @ Evens (50%): 60 – 50 = 10 X 4 = 40 + 60 = 100, so stake is 100 points @ Evens.
One I believe a 3% (fair 33/1) available at 100/1 (1%) gets 3 – 1 = 2 X 4 = 8 + 3 = 11 points @ 100/1
Although if I think a race is a bit difficult to work out it could be X 3 or 2 instead of 4. If too difficult, NO bet.
I am happy enough with my days work.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.