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  • #9447
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    2:05 Newbury 3m110y Hcp Hur

    Temoin 0.5% 200/1 (66/1)
    Miko De Beauchene 10% 9/1 (15/2)
    Don’t Push It 2% 50/1 (28/1)
    Ringaroses 12.5% 7/1 (11/2)
    Galient 12.5%7/1 (11/2)
    Green Mile 7.25% 13/1 (10/1)
    Just Amazing 5% 20/1 (14/1)
    Butlers Cabin 2% 50/1 (25/1)
    Adroit Approach 3.25% 28/1 (20/1)
    Arrayou 2.25% 40/1 (25/1)
    Pocket Aces 1.5% 66/1 (33/1)
    Ballydub 28.25% 5/2 (9/4)
    Openide 0.25% 400/1 (100/1)
    Dan Buoy 3.25% 28/1 (20/1)
    Sarde 7% 13/1 (10/1)
    Bertie May 2% 50/1 (28/1)
    Mossville 0.25% 400/1 (100/1)
    Super Lord 0.25% 400/1 (100/1)

    Names in bold are those who can be backed at the time of writing at bigger odds.

    Ringaroses at 13/1 looks a particularly good bet.

    Ringaroses is lightly raced but very progressive, pulled up when making a bad mistake (short price) on reappearance. Then only 6th over hurdles last time. Ability to handle soft has to be taken on trust but was 6th in a grade 2 bumper at Aintree on it. Stable is in much better form now and further improvement could be forthcoming with this increased test. Dam won Stayers Hurdle.

    Miko De Beauchene looks good value but I am concerned this is his reappearance and main target being the Welsh National, may not be fit. Might be worth waiting to see if there is any market move.

    Green Mile also looks big but this is a big betting yard and is quite a bit bigger on the exchanges than bookies. Keep an eye out for a market move. Another negative is the yard has not done so well of late over here.
    Might not be 100% fit. Dare I say, they might be looking for the British handicapper to drop him a few pounds.

    Sarde is possibly the best of the 20/1 plus horses. Proved suited by a stiff 2m6f last time and seems on the up.

    Was keen on Galient until I remembered he was 2nd in the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot on a firm surface and wonder whether he will be as good on truly soft ground.

    Ballydub has obviously by far the best chance, but is just too short to back at prices I have seen. Stayed on well in vain pursuit of Punchestowns at Cheltenham (2m5f on soft). After being pushed along some way out, so this extra distance should suit. Did hit a few hurdles and could do with improving his jumping.

    Suggest:
    13 points @ 13/1 Ringaroses
    7 points @ 20/1 Sarde

    Value Is Everything
    #193036
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Hennessy Newbury 3m2f110y Hcp Chs (Soft)

    Knowhere 3% 33/1 (22/1)
    Snoopy Loopy 4% 25/1 (16/1)
    Monkerhostin 0.3% 300/1 (80/1)
    Alberta’s Run 8% 12/1 (9/1)
    My Will 0.25% 400/1 (100/1)
    Air Force One 11.5% 15/2 (6/1)
    Big Buck’s 17% 5/1 (4/1)
    Dear Villez 7.75% 12/1 (9/1)
    Madison Du Berlais 0.2% 500/1 (125/1)
    Slim Pickings 5% 20/1 (14/1)
    Always Waining 0.5% 200/1 (66/1)
    Oedipe 9% 10/1 (8/1)
    Verasi 0.5% 200/1 (66/1)
    High Chimes 2.75% 33/1 (22/1)
    Royal County Star 3.75% 25/1 (18/1)
    Character Building 11.5% 15/2 (6/1)
    Island Flyer 14% 6/1 (5/1)

    Value Is Everything
    #193040
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    Suggest:
    17 points @ 6.4/1 Big Buck’s
    14 points @ 8.6/1 Island Flyer
    10 points @ 13.5/1 Oedipe
    8 points @ 15/1 Dear Villez

    Value Is Everything
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