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I’ve been having a friendly discussion with Ginger’s about his method of finding winners. I am dead set against seeking value and making up books. I also think to make decent money out of it is near impossible. This is something we have disagreed on for several years it’s time to put it to bed so the knives are out
Unless I am misreading his post on page 72 between April 2011 July 2012 he showed 2,602.27 points profit over a 15 month period which is an average of 173 points per month.
No one in their right mind would put the effort into it that Ginger does for 1 pound per point and that’s where problem one lies.
Problem two is if you think 1730 pound would be a fair exchange for your efforts 10 pounds per point, then no one s going to lay you at the stakes (points) and prices Ginger puts up. unless you are a big loser. If you are a winner and betting his way they will likely ban you or at least cut the price on offer to such an extent is will severely damage your profit margin. Ginger claims if you bet with lots off different bookies that is less likely to happen but in my experience it’s more likely to happen as on average you will be a winner with them all because his method does constantly make a profit.
Problem 2 then creates problem 3. Ginger tells me he was 500 point down one month. Punters who lose that sort of money will quit so if you start doing it you have to be lucky enough to start when he’s on winning streak…..to be fair he is most of the time.
As a bit of fun it’s brilliant but in IMO in reality it is a complete no no for a serious gambler which Ginger claims he wants to be someday.
Please don’t get me wrong I am not here to knock the guy I am here to show a better and easier method of making it pay.
Basically no matter which horse you back or how many every horse takes out the same gross amount. 10% of what you have in your bank is that amount. In this case 100 pound.
You increase or decrease your bank every time it moves 500 quid. 2000 in the bank your take out is 200 pounds.
All bets are either with Betfair or Betdaq and for the purpose of this exercise commission is set at 4% from start to finish. If you reach 5,000 pounds no more increases 500 pounds is the max takeout and that should eliminate totally not getting on.
I’ll post selections for each race I bet in beforehand and calculate the running balance using Betfair sp so it can’t be disputed.
Happy punting all.
Obviously any AP bets will be settled at prices taken and not at SP but all others will be.
First bet I am putting up is an actual bet and will count when the time comes. It also serves as a guide to anyone who can’t understand the above.
Arc De Triomphe
Orferve……………..5.70 100.00 21.28
Nathaniel……………6.00 100.00 20.00
Danedream……………6.20 100.00 19.23So my total liability on the race is 60.51p best return would be if Overve won 56.77p If Nathaniel won it would be 55.49p and 54.72p If Danedream were to win. Odds of about 1.9 should either win. Commision at 4% has been deducted
I’ve been having a friendly discussion with Ginger’s about his method of finding winners. I am dead set against seeking value and making up books. I also think to make decent money out of it is near impossible. This is something we have disagreed on for several years it’s time to put it to bed so the knives are out
Unless I am misreading his post on page 72 between April 2011 July 2012 he showed 2,602.27 points profit over a 15 month period which is an average of 173 points per month.
No one in their right mind would put the effort into it that Ginger does for 1 pound per point and that’s where problem one lies.
My own stakes are larger than £1 per point Fist, don’t want to encourage anyone to bet in amounts they can not afford. Will be increasing the number of bets per month.
The statistics you neglected to give Fist are the Stakes 21416.13 points and more importantly the Percentage Profit On Stakes; a much fairer way of judging any statistics. Over the 15 months you’re talking about (up to July 18 this year) my Flat percentage profit was 12.15%, meaning on average I got back £112.15 per £100 invested. Anything above 10% is in the realms of what professional gamblers look for.
I am currently working on an update in my profit/loss stats, will let you know the results Fist.
Good luck with the thread, you’re going to need it.
Value Is EverythingObviously any AP bets will be settled at prices taken and not at SP but all others will be.
First bet I am putting up is an actual bet and will count when the time comes. It also serves as a guide to anyone who can’t understand the above.
Arc De Triomphe
Orferve……………..5.70 100.00 21.28
Nathaniel……………6.00 100.00 20.00
Danedream……………6.20 100.00 19.23So my total liability on the race is 60.51p best return would be if Overve won 56.77p If Nathaniel won it would be 55.49p and 54.72p If Danedream were to win. Odds of about 1.9 should either win. Commision at 4% has been deducted
Fist,
Without allowing for commission: At level stakes a punter needs to win 17.54% of his/her bets @ 5.70 to break even, 16.67% of bets @ 6.00 and 16.13% @ 6.2. Why would anyone back Orfevre @ 5.70 if they did not believe him to have a better than 17.54% chance of winning? More’s to the point… Adding 17.54 + 16.67 + 16.13 gives a combined percentage is 50.34%. Therefore, for this bet to be worth taking your assessment of the 3 horses combined needs to be greater than 50.34%.In any form of gambling a punter can not ignore mathematical facts. You might make a profit short term due to coincidence, just like any punter can have a good run. But it won’t work long term (I’m talking years).
Fist,
Will a punter make a profit if backing every individual horse at odds-on?
Will a punter win by backing every individual favourite?If the answer to these two questions is NO, why do you believe dutching any/all 3 or 4 horses with the best chance of winning in every race will show a profit in the long run?
Of course what could work is for you to back the 3 or 4 horses with the best chance of winning…
Only
when you believe they represent good value. ie In the case above if you’ve studied the form and come to the conclusion the 3 horses combined have a better than 50.34% (- commission) chance of winning. But you don’t want to study form Fist.
Value Is Everything
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