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Never layed before but i want to get into backing to lay. My worst nightmare would be backing a horse for £500 with intents to lay it before the off but not being able to get a matched bet…
What are the risks associated with this? I Want to make sure before i go ahead depositing my cash into betfair.
Any answers would be greatly apreciated!
Sam,simple question but whats your reasons for Laying horses?
Do you plan to Lay in running? Are you thinking of laying horses you feel you know well enough to lose? Whats your liability if you Lay one to lose at 1/5 if your stake is £500?
Backing to lay horses that i want to win once the odds have shortened ie back at 10/1 lay at 6/1.
Liability would be £100 on a 1/5?
Not delving into in running i will leave that to the experts who know clever camera angles. Sections. Pace etc. And a quick thinking mind
im good at finding horses that shorten up alot.If you back your fancy at 10/1 Sam,say a £100 win and manage to lay off at 6/1 for example again say £150 to lose, your profit would only be £100 should the horse Win,should it lose then your profit is only £50 at those stakes and Odds less deductions of course.
What I generally do is back a horse at healthy Ante-Post odds ie ‘MTOY’ at 20/1 and then lay him off in running at the shortest price I dare wait for,you can of course pre-set the Odds you want but you very rarely get them.I use the above case as a bad example really as I had the opportunity of actually laying the horse at 7/4 before the bloody race started,some days before!
Had I had £300 on ‘MTOY’ at 20/1 for £6k I could/should have layed him for £2k for a fantastic profit but I thought ‘MTOY’ was a good thing and made a fatal mistake.Laying horses imo is about getting the shortest odds available hence minimising your outlay should the thing win.I have backed 2/1 shots at 20/1 in running and laid 2/1 shots at 1/5 in running for profit but you have to be so disciplined.
Talking of which,I have backed ‘Smad Place’ at 10/1 for the Hennessey and fully expect him to be right up there from the off,if he runs the race I envisage he’ll trade short in running and if he’s 1/2 jumping 2 out with ‘Djakadam’ chasing him I think I’ll press the lay button,trouble is I’ll decide on who’s the better proposition travelling/finding/battling/jumping as the race unfolds,as ‘Smad Place’ will find extra but will ‘Djakadam’??Never understood this back to lay business at all.
If you’ve got 10/1 and the thing starts at 6/1 you’ve already got the value.
Why sell value.
The exchanges
and bookmakers
have got into
the business of
selling insurance policies
on nags with names
like troubleCav …fair point , sadly though we are talking about 2 different type of punters…you would be the purist in racing terms , you have the value , why sell it ….a load of folks will agree
Then you have the traders…they dont know or care about racing , except its a vehicle for trading a profit
With the birth and now teen hood of exchanges , such people roam with impunity , all they need to do is get to know , which horses will contract in price , back with the bookies or exchanges early on , and place a lay order on the exchange to lock in a healthy profit , most times they will achieve it …job done , next case ….
Who is right or wrong , well I guess the balance sheet at the end of the year will tell that tale
Me If I had a 10/1 shot , I would lay off my stake at 6/1 and sit back and enjoy a bet to nothing …
Laying-off overlays is instant guaranteed every time reward, not doing so is long-term guaranteed but intermittent reward
It really just boils down to the psychological character of the punter, which of the strategies you’re most comfortable with
I’ve never laid-off a racing bet (that I can recall) but once did so on Colin Montgomerie in the Open a few years ago when, as forecast, he bottled-it after being up with the leaders at approximately hole 14 on the final round. Only a ‘fun’ bet though
Then you have the traders…they dont know or care about racing
Some of them are incredibly knowledgeable.
Mike
Nobodies answered my question yet
One reason for back to lay is a smaller bankroll for bigger bets.
My worst nightmare would be backing a horse for £500 with intents to lay it before the off but not being able to get a matched bet…
What are the risks associated with this?
Doesn’t your question as stated answer itself? What are the risks to not getting a bet matched? You’ll potentially lose money. Not quite sure what the question is really?
Mike
Get a UPS, have internet supplied via more than one method (eg BT socket and cable), a sign on your room/front door saying "we’re closed" and a usable betdaq account and the risks of having to hold the baby are pretty much zero.
Never layed before but i want to get into backing to lay. My worst nightmare would be backing a horse for £500 with intents to lay it before the off but not being able to get a matched bet…
What are the risks associated with this? I Want to make sure before i go ahead depositing my cash into betfair.
Any answers would be greatly apreciated!
You’ll always get "matched" if you’re willing to take the price available Sam, so don’t quite understand the question.
Although you’re reducing the amount lost on a loser, by laying it back at a smaller price; there’s always a "Risk" the reduced amount won from "winners" not paying for the losers.
I’d say it all depends on your record with horses who lengthen. (Presumably you’re not going to lay lengtheners back at a loss). You’re going to win far more when the ones that lengthen (no lay back) than you do on those that shorten (with a lay back). If (as a percentage) your lengtheners win a good number of races, then this is no bad thing.
However, like you, most of my bets shorten up so could do as you describe. But I’ve also noticed (even percentage-wise) very few of my lengtheners win races. Therefore, if laying most of my winners back (winning less each time) there’s a chance either those winners not winning enough to pay for my losers, or more likely a reduced profit.
Value Is EverythingThe other worry would be that, even when you monopolise the pink button, there just isn’t a monkey there:
This gloomy view of THEROADTOGOREY (IRE)’s form was reflected in the race – the gelding was placed 8th of 9. Mr Callow actively layed the gelding through his own account and one other account – that of Andrew Trigg, which he had control over. Mr Callow risked £7,659 to win £380. His betting activity equated to 54% of the Betfair market on THEROADTOGOREY (IRE). Mr Callow’s evidence as to the reason for him using other accounts was that he believed he had a ceiling of £5,000 on his account and he wanted greater capacity to lay THEROADTOGOREY (IRE). The Panel accepted this position.
The betting on the second race at Worcester on 11 July followed a similar pattern to the first. By now Mr Callow had recruited the Betfair accounts of two more friends – David Bowyer and Ben Male and together with the Trigg account, Mr Callow placed bets in the place market. Mr Callow aggressively layed THEROADTOGOREY (IRE) again. His liability for the race was £14,606 and he won £473. His betting accounted for 78% of the Betfair market. The majority of prices were matched between 30 and 60 and this was also reflected at the racecourse where THEROADTOGOREY (IRE) was sent off at 50-1.
When a horse lengthens you get BOG anyway So surely youre just losing on commission? I only asked the question because i have had unmatched bets on betfair before but the morning or day before. Is there a bigger chance of getting a bet matched just before the off? If i put £1000 win on a 6/1(other bookmaker not betfair) and lay it at 3/1 with a 10k bankroll to possibly win 3k(-comission) risk free. How much could you put on a 6/1 with a 10k bankroll without back to lay? Not £500 that would be suicidal.
it seems more profitible to me but i could be wrong.If the horse is a legitimate 3/1 poke, as suggested by its price near the off, then £500 of a 10k bank @6/1 isn’t suicidal – it is cowardly.
Had I had £300 on ‘MTOY’ at 20/1 for £6k I could/should have layed him for £2k for a fantastic profit but I thought ‘MTOY’ was a good thing and made a fatal mistake.Laying horses imo is about getting the shortest odds available hence minimising your outlay should the thing win.I have backed 2/1 shots at 20/1 in running and laid 2/1 shots at 1/5 in running for profit but you have to be so disciplined.
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