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First time out on dirt against high class dirt opposition. Cast iron Lay!:o
(Edited by Mug Punter at 8:01 pm on Nov. 1, 2006)
I’m gonna back him.. Too big a price in my opinion, bit like when he went out to 5/2 for the QEII..
If he gets out the gates quick enough Bernardini will need to be the monster they say he is to beat him.
Lay George Washington all day . . .
He’s mentally fragile, has never tried the trip, has never run at racing pace on dirt and is certainly not bred to either. He is 1-33 to miss the break. Enough reasons?
Bernardini is probably a monster and is going to be very hard to beat. David Junior should be the best of the Brits.
Cormack, I seem to have plagiarised your ‘bet to nothing’ line in The Weekender. Please accept that it was unconscious.<br>Don’t quite agree with the ‘we know all about’ George as a miler though. Don’t think one run can do that, however impressive it was.<br>NB. If you don’t want to be plagiarised in future, perhaps you could stop making sensible posts:cool:
Quote: from Lincoln Duncan on 10:37 am on Nov. 2, 2006[br]Lay George Washington all day . . .
He’s mentally fragile, has never tried the trip, has never run at racing pace on dirt and is certainly not bred to either. He is 1-33 to miss the break. Enough reasons?
Bernardini is probably a monster and is going to be very hard to beat. David Junior should be the best of the Brits.<br>
Of course David Junior will be the best of the brits – he is the only Brit, well if you consider both his trainer and Jockey are both Irish and he is american bred, not sure even if he is British…….
Good point, Mr Donoghue, I evidently got carried away with the Team Europe ethos and massed them all under the Brits label. It was rather silly of me . . .
Pine Island wins the Distaff, by the way
At close to 10/1, George W has to be a bet. IF he takes to the surface, that’s going to look very, very generous. I think 10/1 is more than value for that unknown.
I really don’t think GW will have any trouble staying the extra 2 furlongs.
Also, I think the mental fragility is disappearing.. If the race was on turf, what would the prices be? I know the surface is different and that is the risk, but is that risk worth say 8 points? I would say not… I think he’ll stay as well, can’t see any reason why not, he’s never been stopping in any of his races..
Betting on George Washington to win the Classic is a bit like having a treble. You are betting that he’ll (a) handle the surface, (b) stay the distance (c) be good enough.
I’m not sure he qualifies on the third point against Bernardini so I have no compulsion whatsoever to get involved. I really wouldn’t back George Washington at 25/1.
If the race was on turf, the prices would be different. But it isn’t, so the prices are as they are. If the race was on cheese, the morning-line would look a lot different too.
Yes, he hasn’t been stopping at the end of his mile races – but he has another quarter to run in what will be a fast-run race. What do you base your opinion on, Salselon?
And even if he does take to the surface, I wouldn’t fancy him to beat Invasor or Lava Man, let alone Bernardini.
I think Echo of Light is one of the best bets of the evening. This horse has as much ability in the field as anything else and has the perfect running style for a tight easy mile. Frankie should be able to get him a good position from 6, tracking the leaders and I imagine Dettori will slot him in alongside Araafa, then turn him loose turning into the short straight. If the oddsmakers really think that this only has the same chance of winning the Mile as what George Washington does the Classic, then I think they are grossly mistaken.
Well, I think if this was on a surface which both Bernardini & GW were both used to & acted upon, then they would be a similar price.
I really don’t see why GW would fail to stay 1m2. He never looks to me like a horse who has run out of steam in any of his 1 mile races.
Obviously the dirt is unknown. And perhaps unlikely. But … for me this horse has as much ability as Bernardini (if not more), will find the extra distance no problem and you are getting 8 times the price that he will act upon the surface. That’s why I think he’s worth a bet.
Bernardini at evens is a poor bet, imo.
I said I wouldn’t back him at 25’s. I didn’t say I’d lay him at that price. What’s the point in laying you at 26 when I can lay him at 9.4 on betfair?
Sorry I forgot my smiley at the end of the post DJ. I was just saying if you were offering 25/1 I’d have taken you up on it. No need to get grouchy:biggrin:
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