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Librettist – match bets available on betfair. You can currently back Sir Percy to beat GW at just a shade of odds against (2.06) but only to £13.
FSL – here is the response you crave!
I think Sir Percy will get outpaced and be staying on because – he beat Horatio Nelson and was extremely lucky to do so. Horatio will be a stayer, i guarantee you that, so Sir Percy only just beat a stayer. That immediately spells trouble for me. Red Clubs had had a long season and didn’t like the ground at all.
Also, 2yo – 3yo is a big step. the horse grows in itself, and its features become more pronounced. for stayers like Sir Percy and Horatio, they will need to utilise their stamina more. The only way I could see either winning is if they go to the front and set a perfect gallop, and leave them all for dead when they kick on. Motivator won the RP Trophy over a mile, then won the Derby, but he could hardly have stepped down to a mile as a 3yo could he?
Oh, and as for the whole Fallon – Gypsy King – Motivator saga. Whenever jockeys get interviewed, and they are riding for their boss, and get asked which other horse they would like to be on, how often do you get a response? They always say – oh i’m happy with my mount.
On BBC2 the day before the Derby, in an interview with Fallon, he said the only other horse in the race he would like to be on is Motivator. That is ultimtimately why I backed Motivator. Fallon is such a great judge – last year I scrubbed out Footstepsinthesand so many times because he had just won 2 poor races on yielding ground. Fallon and Dettori are the only jockeys i listen to to get info.
Oh, and Killybegs hasn’t done as much as Haafhd. Nowhere near. What did Killybegs beat? What were their prices for the 2000 Gns beforehand? Any under 25/1?
Haafhd absolutely destroyed Three Valleys comfortably, who was around 8/1 at the time if memory serves correctly. He was incredibly impressive, and followed it up with the Guineas. I don’t think Killybegs will make it into the top 6 personally.
It’ll be George, Horatio, Percy, Red Clubs, Asset and Opera Cape, with Amadeus Wolf being the ‘shock of the race.’
Out of interest, who are the Ballydoyle ‘hype machines’?
Obv One Cool Cat and Johannesburg, but who else?
Look at the list of absolute quality – Mozart, Fasliyev, Rock of Gibraltar, High Chaparral, Hawk Wing, Galileo.
Surely you can forgive them 2 flops when there have been so many greats? One Cool Cat had an irregular heart beat and didn’t stay 1mile. No excuses for Johannesburg, but I don’t understand all the bad feeling towards their ‘hype machines’!!
P.s. You can hardly call Pescatorio a flop by the way, you will see how incredible he is on his next outing.
(Edited by jackane24 at 11:37 am on May 5, 2006)
So to get this straight Jackane Sir Percy will be outpaced because it only just beat a stayer in the Dewhurst? Hmm, well Horatio Nelson might not be the stayer you think he is and Sir Percy is clearly no slow boat looking at his speed figures.
Who is going to set this scorching gallop I read about? They’ll have to be good to leave Sir Percy and several others outpaced. You mention Motivator but Sir Percy hasn’t won over a mile, hes only won over 6 and 7f so hes actually stepping up to a mile. Considering the speed its shown at the end of races I think its folly to say becuase all the horses have matured from 2yo to 3yo it will suddenly be slow and need even further.
On a side note, I NEVER listen to Jockeys as they’ve got there own aganeda. I do note which horse they want to ride, and it can be beneficial to listen to trainers eg O’Brien wondering whether GW will stay a mile.
FSL
There will get a fast gallop, I can tell you that. There are at least 4 front runners currently in the field, and around 6 who track the leaders. Red Clubs and Amadeus Wolf also tend to get to the front about halfway through their races.
Final verse will be out the back, with George, Percy and Horatio all held up I feel.
Craven winner also have shocking records. Other than Haafhd 2 years ago, nothing else got close to winning the Guineas. Even though King’s best did come 2nd before beating Giant’s C.
Jack – being ‘held up’ is a different thing entirely to being ‘outpaced’. I agree that Sir Percy and Horatio will be held up but given the speed they showed to win their respective races last season I think it’s extremely unlikely they’ll be outpaced unless, of course, they go a suicidal pace.
Well my worry (not really a worry – the faster they go the better :biggrin: ) for me is that there are 3 or 4 front runners in the field, who could all be taking on each other for the lead. The Guineas field is relatively small this year, and many people are overlooking Frost Giant. He could tow them along at a great pace.
Anyone who thinks Sir Percy or for that matter Horatio (Providing he’s fit enough) will be outpaced would want to have a serious re-think.
Even if transpires that the perfect distance for SP or HN is 1 1/4m, then a mile at this stage of their 3 year old career represents the PERFECT trip.
On the subject of GW, I would have no hesitation in backing SP to beat Amadeus Mozart by more than 8 lengths.
Tomorrow will tell all.
Can’t wait:cool:
Amadeus mozart? You mean George Washington!?! Don’t you dare put those horses in the same league Andrew!!
Btw, you enjoy losing money do you? :biggrin:
I’m pretty sure I saw a quote from Tregoning a couple of weeks ago (around the time of his racecourse gallop) that they would keep Sir Percy close to the pace.
Even if transpires that the perfect distance for SP or HN is 1 1/4m, then a mile at this stage of their 3 year old career represents the PERFECT trip.
I can’t be having that.
If they are true 12f (Derby) horses then they should be suited to the 10f of the Dante in 2 weeks time.
Horses don’t increase their "ideal distance" by quarter of a mile in a fortnight.
It may be that a horse that should be running over further can win the 2,000 gns and a horse that’s not quite a 12f horse can win the Derby, but a true miler today isn’t going to be a 12f horse by the end of the year.
Steve
I never said they are true 12F horses. I thin both will most likely be suited by 10F in time, as I said above.
Hence, why I think a mile at this stage is … perfect :biggrin:
I think we will find he best a decent field too
Ny one Sir Percy looks great for the derby now , but GW is awesome :o
A great performance. Sir Percy certainly wasn’t outpaced and ran a nice race in 2nd. That Derby antepost bet on Sir Percy isn’t looking too bad.
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