- This topic has 13 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I’ve always liked this race, it’s not always the most competitive G2, but it is one of my favorites. Normally, it takes a certain type of horse to win this, a horse with very solid group form at 12f or above. You very rarely get a horse stepping up in trip winning this race, but could this year be different?
The trainer to follow on trends has to be M.Stoute. His ten-year record in the race is 2812312121, with horses like Little Rock, Gamut and Papal Bull running in consecutive years, & Doctor Freemantle winning last year. I’m fairly certain he targets this race from a long way out. The stable has two entries this year, Spanish Moon & Glass Harmonium.
Spanish Moon is the classiest of the pair (probably the class horse of the entries) having won a G1 in France & been placed in top-class G1’s in Dubai & Hong Kong. If he get’s declared, & goes in the stalls, he could outclass the field. There are a few ifs & buts there though.
Glass Harmonium doesn’t have proven form at 12f, normally that would really worry me, particularly as he’s not guaranteed to stay on breeding, but imo he races as though this step up to 12f could really suit him. I’m also encouraged by the owners, who regularly breed horses which improve over middle distances (GHs dam is related to a few 12f+ winners). Also the trainer who knows what type of horse is needed to win this race. If M.Stoute choses him to run, I’d be quite willing to take a gamble on GH going up in trip.
Horses which have run at Royal Ascot normally do quite well. The G2 Hardwicke Stakes form is represented by Sans Frontieres (4th), Redwood (5th) & Crowded House (6th)…but they were all beaten a long way by Harbinger, also trained by M.Stoute. So I’m guessing he’d have a good idea how SM & GH compare to these. My opinion is that SM is much better than them, & GH is a bit better than them (based on early season G3 Sandown form over 10f), but I’m thinking GH may improve more into the summer & also more for the step up in trip.
The form of the G1 Prince of Wale’s Stakes is represented by Tazeez (3rd), Glass Harmonium (6th), & Mawatheeq (10th), all beaten by Byword & subsequent Coral Eclipse winner Twice Over. It’s a bit of a worry for supporters of GH, that Tazeez has beaten him both times they have met over 10f this year. Although I’m not sure how well Tazeez will get a stiff 12f, if at all? Mawatheeq could now run in this after refusing to go into the stalls in the Coral Eclipse. He could be a danger, it was suggested he needed the PoW race, & has a very nice piece of 12f fast ground form from Ascot last year.
There are several other interesting entries, including two from Godophin (Campanologist – who I really don’t fancy & Holburg who is much more interesting). Man of Iron (winner of the BC Marathon last year) now with L.Cumani, he’ll stay well & his comeback run was OK, not sure how good he is though, people were hyping him before that run. The M.Johnston 3yo Corsica is very interesting as well, 4th in the Queens Vase at RA, and gets nearly a stone wfa. He’ll get this trip well & could try & make his light weight tell.
I think Mawatheeq might upset the Applecart
Speedy enough to run over 10 furlongs and stays 12
Well then unlikely the apples will be toppled where the bandwagon follower he might actually have a "value" bet ahem Fist.
Spanish Moon 7/4
Holberg 4/1
Tazeez 5/1
San Frontieres 10/1
Man Of Iron 14/1
Redwood 20/1
Crowded House 25/1
Nanton 33/1That’s my price line but wouldn’t look much further than Spanish Moon, hasn’t exactly been over looked by the racing world though and would want 9/4+. Think Holberg is an interesting runner and keen to see how he gets on so will probably sit back and watch this one
Man of Iron got an incredibly soft ride from Fallon last time out, I think he is in with a big shout.
My 100% book:
Spanish Moon 15/8
Holburg 7/2Tazeez 9/2
Sans Frontiers 12/1
Man Of Iron 14/1
Redwood 16/1Crowded House 22/1
Nanton 100/1
Backed Tazeez 11/2, Sans Frontiers 15/1 and Crowded House 33/1.
Hopefully Tazeez and Holburg won’t take each other on up front.
Value Is EverythingAssuming he goes in the stalls it is hard to see past Spanish Moon and he is now around 13-8.
What you think about San Frontieres Ginge? Think the step up to 12f was long overdue but he strikes me as a bit of a monkey and not sure I can put any trust in the beast yet.
Spanish Moon is different class to these surely.
Evidently not.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
What you think about San Frontieres Ginge? Think the step up to 12f was long overdue but he strikes me as a bit of a monkey and not sure I can put any trust in the beast yet.
O.K. this is aftertiming my reasons tb, but here goes:
Sans Frontiers is by Galileo out of a Shirley Heights mare so the 12f trip was likely to suit him very well. Undoubtedly is a bit of a monkey, high head carriage but hasn’t done that much wrong recently. The new headgear (to me) was a positive, but the biggest posi was Noseda’s form. Flying at the moment; in contrast to Stoutey, who although is still having winners hasn’t the usual strike rate at the moment. Some are running poorly, Spanish Moon and Treble Jig today, Mascarene the other day at Newbury etc. even Strawberrydaqueri a touch dissapointing (imo).Spanish Moon has had training problems in the past, lightly raced and even a fractured pelvis. A sizable individual with a slightly rounded action; does act on good-firm, but whether he likes and runs consistantly on it is questionable. Don’t write him off.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.