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Nice race with plenty of decent 2yo form in there.
Alcohol Free probably does deserve to be favourite given the trainer and jockey are in fine form, and she did it the hard way in the CPS but i don’t think she’s a good bet at the price.
Given this is over 7f i thought Umm Kulthum shaped like she’d appreciate the furlong extra and is 12/1 in a place over 7/2 about AF. I thought that looked wrong, and Fahey isn’t in bad form 7-43. He is however, 0-9 in 5 years at Newbury with 3yos, and 0 winners from 15 for this season so far with his 3yo string, which suggests to me they have been needing their runs more than most.
Still, i do think at 12/1 she might be worth chancing.The other one i’m keen on is Lucid Dreamer, she comes from a quieter 2yo route taking in 2 non graded races, probably expected given she’s a bit of a hot head refusing to enter the stalls once lol. In her last race she was very keen, and still looked immature, however, when she took off it was over within a second, and what i liked to see was she took plenty of pulling up after the line, suggesting it’s only taken half a job to win it. Her form ties in with her stablemate Love Is You closely and i think she could be very useful. She’s 10/1, handles the track and is proven over 7f something some of the shorter horses have question marks over.
I think Isabella Giles will want softer for all she has won on better. Happy Romance doesn’t convinced me upped to 7f for all Hannon thinks she’ll definitely stay. Not sure Dandalla will either and it’s possible she was just an early type. Aunty Bridy’s an interesting one bought by the Haggas team from Bolger in Ire, i had half considered her, given she didn’t run too badly behind Shale, but she was well beaten really and i’m not as convinced about the excuses for the run.
Umm Kulthum + Lucid Dreamer it is!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Looks like a lot of sprinters in this race to me
Isabella Giles is one who did me a couple of favours so il likely side with her but will have a proper dig through the less exposed ones first
I was considering Lucid Dreamer, but then if you go through the beaten horses in her races, it’s awful form really. She could be anything, but that obviously means nothing as well. 10/1 hmmm perhaps…..
I think this is impossible to have confidence in any of them, so I might actually just go for Happy Romance, for some comic value, as RH says “she’ll take all the beating” in his stable tour!!
haha, Love RH
Let’s do it
Happy Romance 7/1
Had exactly the same opinion about lucid dreamer
And staying loyal to isabella giles simply because we know she stays the trip
6/1
Yeah Frenchy, as much as i’m a big Hannon fan i don’t believe his optimism on her staying a mile. Maybe she’ll stay the 7f ok, but i still think she’ll be susceptible at the finish.
Yeah Lucid Dreamer’s form isn’t rock rock solid, but that probably comes with having run in 2 small races compared to having faced off with the group 2yos.
Given i believe the majority of them are sprinters in the field, i’m happy to side with one i know will stay and has been kept for her 3yo career (perhaps needed maturing anyway lol).
She was also going into a novice event favourite giving weight to Indigo Girl who we know is a g1 filly. 15/8, now i realise she was in benefit of a run, but if she had gone close to IG giving her the winners allowance, she’d have come out of that looking very well now.
I also read in RP Analysis that Charlton’s recent 2yo first time out winners are Headman, Quadrilateral and Blue Mist. All very decent performers.
Happy to split stakes between her + Umm Khulthum, though i think Fahey did say it the ground wasn’t sure to suit her, so i might be down to one before the off.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!As we suspected a race full of sprinters
Id be inclined to mark up alcohol free as she had little to no cover and looked green still at the finish
Whether she will get a mile im not sure
Shed probably be better at 6/7f than a mile imo
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