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<b>Racing is all about opinions so here’s mine on the first four miler of the autumn/winter.As ever always interested to hear your views.
JAUNTY JOURNEY. Very impressive winner on his first outing for NTD at Chepstow albeit against a very off colour but highly regarded Nicholls debutant. You have to say that on his latest performance he is going to attain a much higher mark than 129 so could, in theory, be very well handicapped but his sire, Karinga Bay has yet to have a winner over four miles.
MINSTER SHADOW. On papers looks like he has it all to do. Didn’t cover himself in glory on his previous start over 4 miles and looked desperately in need of the run last time out albeit in a race that was always going to be beyond him. He got punished by the handicapper for two wins on the bounce in ordinary races back in early 2008. His sire has produced one winner over four miles, Rambling Minster as has his damsire, Arctic Lord (Sir Frosty) so there is hope. Just not much.
TANK TOP. Seemingly didn’t get home over this trip at Donny when holding every chance but they may have made too much use of him on that day. Fell 8 fences out in the NH Chase but was again looking as if he may play a part and ended his season with a good run but again set the race up for something behind. Only up 2lbs from that run and if he is run with more restraint he may just see this out but it is a big IF.
NEWMAN DES PLAGES. Game win last time out over 2m 4f. It wasn’t a great race however. He is currently 0 from 7 when going over three miles+ so you have to take a great leap of faith with this one. Nevertheless he is by the same sire as Mon Mome but in all honesty he hasn’t fulfilled the potential he showed in France.
BORIS THE BLADE. By Cloudings – another sire yet to have a winner over four miles. Obviously loves Hexham but his unfashionable trainer has yet to have a winner this season, albeit from only a few runners but BORIS is by far and away her best horse. This is a tough ask first time out and remains 9lbs higher than when he last won. He will love the ground though.
LUCKY NELLERIE. Never got this horse right. As likely to spit the dummy as he is to win. Highly tried over long distances but not without success but has yet to figure in a race over four miles and he failed dismally over this distance and off the same mark at Doncaster in January. Still 6lbs higher than his last win and although he will make me look a fool I just can’t see it myself.
BAY CHERRY. Has the beating of Boris The Blade through a form line with Overlady. Saddlers Hall sired the winner of the NH Chase (Old Benny) and of course his damsire is the mighty Roselier – sire of multiple National winners. BAY CHERRY has Grand National winning sires throughout his pedigree, most notably Roselier, Vulgan and Kemal. The only downside for this one is the trainer’s form. He’s had a couple of recent winners but must are hitting the crossbar but O’Regan is back and I am hoping for a bold show.
GARLETON. He’s actually got a really lovely pedigree for a prospective marathon staying chaser. Has an excellent win/place ratio but has only won on good or good/soft. Has never really performed on soft ground and surely that has to be a major concern over this trip. Was soundly beaton over 3m 4f on favoured ground at Haydock and basically he looks a real slow coach but racing over four miles with only 10-0 will see him near the head of the market for obvious reasons.
PANAMA AT ONCE. His stand out piece of form came at Newcastle in January on heavy ground. However, he won this off a mark of 91 and has won since off 105 in a four runner affair so only running off a 1lb higher mark than his last win. Of course he will effectively be running off a very handy 9-11 to carry which is why I find it slightly odd he is not more popular in the current market. His pedigree has that influence I love for staying chasers – Vulgan plus his sire also produced two Irish National winners. His first run was bad but then again so have all his races first time out!
MAIDSTONE MIXTURE. A four year old running over four miles. He’s already had 22 races under NH rules, which is absolutely incredible and yet he hasn’t run at all bad in some races, particularly when second behind one time NH Chase hope and Grand National entrant Sandhurst. Some of his form and his weight mean that you cannot totally dismiss his chances but it would be a minor turn-up if he did do it but I rate more than some of the others.
INDY MOOD. Re last sentence above – particularly this one.
Conclusion
Jaunty Journey could prove to be a class above the rest of these but I will be taking an e/w chance with the lightly raced but so beautifully bred BAY CHERRY.
</b>[/color:1nf60589]Sterling work, KC, but sadly all in a lost cause as Hexham has been abandoned now. I’d love them to reschedule the race for their next meeting, but that’s probably a forlorn hope.
Here’s hoping this isn’t merely the first of many interesting races nixed this week. The forecast for Haydock isn’t the greatest, though, likewise Ireland.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Here’s hoping this isn’t merely the first of many interesting races nixed this week. The forecast for Haydock isn’t the greatest, though, likewise Ireland.
gc
It isn’t looking good is it?
I have just bailed out of a trip to Kelso on Friday – reading between the lines Anthea’s not exactly being optimistic – at least chickening out now I can rebook by flights for another meeting and get the car hire back!!
As for Haydock we all know it is obligatory for Kirkland’s going reports to always contain the word "good" but even he may be pushed this weekend
On a slightly brighter note I wouldn’t imagine any probelms with the up-coming meetings at Musselburgh. We have had some rain in the East of Scotland recently with more forecast for the next couple of days. However, the latest going report for Musselburgh on Sunday is Good (Good to Firm in places)so there isn’t likely to be a problem. The course drains as well as any in the UK.
Rob
Sterling work, KC, but sadly all in a lost cause as Hexham has been abandoned now. I’d love them to reschedule the race for their next meeting, but that’s probably a forlorn hope.
gcGiven that the next meeting at Hexham (9th Dec) comes just 3 days after the Borders National 4m handicap chase at Kelso I would imagine that is very unlikely
True, David, it can only be to the detriment of both races, field size-wise. Would Kelso be the revised target for Lucky Nellerie now?
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Shame they couldnt move it to Haydock on Saturday, be a nice opening race.
Weather wise it was been very bad with the rain yet all seems ok for Saturday as the course has only been used twice and should hold up for our big weekend here.
Im getting warmed up by going to Hereford tomorrow for some run of the mill low grade jumping although the Novice Chase looks an interesting contest.
Here’s hoping, Neil! Kirkland is being very sanguine about matters given that the forecast for just a little bit further north of Haydock is for three inches of rain between now and Saturday afternoon. Wouldn’t need all of that payload to throw the meeting in doubt, I would have thought.
Still planning on attending, though, as it’s been an age since I went to Haydock last – drop us a line if you fancy meeting up. I expect I’ll be oscillating between the paddock and Tatts all afternoon.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Sterling work, KC, but sadly all in a lost cause as Hexham has been abandoned now. I’d love them to reschedule the race for their next meeting, but that’s probably a forlorn hope.
gcGiven that the next meeting at Hexham (9th Dec) comes just 3 days after the Borders National 4m handicap chase at Kelso I would imagine that is very unlikely
Well, they have tried…the race has been put back into calendar at next meeting on 9th Dec with same sponsor, same prize money but distance reduced to 3m1f & so no longer termed a National.
Shame they couldn’t have put the money into Hexham’s 4miler during Cheltenham week, while keeping that races particular low-rating standard and allowed a slow plodder a bumper payday.
Could have renamed the race the Northumberland Plodders National!
Shame they couldn’t have put the money into Hexham’s 4miler during Cheltenham week, while keeping that races particular low-rating standard and allowed a slow plodder a bumper payday.
Doubtful it would serve much purpose upping that contest to a far higher banding at a time of year when there isn’t the same shortage of marathon races as there is in November.
Moreover, whilst many of its winners are admittedly decidedly modest, it still notionally serves a purpose as a next step up the ladder for a marathon chaser still on an upward trajectory, who could then progress yet further up the ranks of either satellite Nationals or other fair-to-middling plodders’ chases.
Exhibit A: 2008 winner Hello Bud.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Here’s hoping, Neil! Kirkland is being very sanguine about matters given that the forecast for just a little bit further north of Haydock is for three inches of rain between now and Saturday afternoon. Wouldn’t need all of that payload to throw the meeting in doubt, I would have thought.
Still planning on attending, though, as it’s been an age since I went to Haydock last – drop us a line if you fancy meeting up. I expect I’ll be oscillating between the paddock and Tatts all afternoon.
gc
Well you will certainly notice the changes since you last went Jeremy, If i notice you about i will pop over and say Hello. Crowd wise should be ok as Liverpool are playing Man City and Man Utd are at home to Everton on the same day so the pure racing fans should have the place to themselves as it should be.
Hereford was cracking, Had 4 winners on the day and was impressed with Minella Theatre in the Novice Chase who jumped ok and will be even better over 3m in time.
…and a very long overdue first win for Star Galaxy, of course!
I should be easy enough to spot at Haydock – allover black apart from a blue anorak, and probably brandishing a clipboard. And devouring a hog roast, if they have one.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
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