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I knew you would be on this thread sooner or later…….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Hi guys, How to you guys learn how to analyse form?
How do you come up with your own odds for example:
Bookies think Aces High is 6/4 but i think he is 7-2 – how did you come up with these figure? Are all you guys self taught or have you read form analysis books?
(If so which ones)I’ve been racking my brain on where to even begin!
Should I look at the Speed ratings and decide if they are justified through pace analysis, draw bias?
Also is anyone proficient in Video analysis, I’m really struggling with this at the moment? I can’t anything on this subject anywhere.
I’ve read lots of books on handicapping, but when it comes to sitting in front of RP in the morning I just don’t know where to begin.
Any suggestions!?! Someone take me under there wing!!!!!
Jaggers,
I just read your PM and will reply soon with a few suggestions.Value Is EverythingI knew you would be on this thread sooner or later…….
You know me Nathan, couldn’t resist.
I find it unbelievable that so many punters don’t take odds and percentages in to account when having a bet. It is essential. At least Bluebook was trying to allow for percentages, even if the way he did it was ultimately flawed.
Value Is EverythingCan anyone tell me:
Why would anyone back any 4/1 shot if they don’t believe it to have a better than 20% chance of winning?
Why would anyone back any 4/1 shot if they did not have any/much idea what percentage chance the horse had of winning?
Why do punters ignore ignore the mathematics?
Value Is EverythingGinge, this is the system section of the forum, so I guess if the 4/1 horse in question meet the system criteria that would become the selection regardless of price/value.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Ginge, this is the system section of the forum, so I guess if the 4/1 horse in question meet the system criteria that would become the selection regardless of price/value.
Top of this page Nathan, it describes this section as:
"Systems
Discuss systems andmethods
and put up your system’s selections".
Does this not qualify as "methods" for backing winners?
Ok I’ll ask a systems question related to this issue.Even though every form of picking winners has
losing run
s, so it is neccessary to
keep betting
through the losing run… Systems that find a
strike rate of 25%
at an
average price of 4/1
will make an
excellent profit
. The problem comes when the inevitable happens.
Winning
systems become more and more
well known
, including by
bookmakers
. Bookmakers will eventually cotton on and
reduce the price to below 3/1
, where as the strike rate
remains 25%
. Therefore the system will
no longer show a profit
…
Trouble is…
How
does the punter recognise a "losing run" as
not a losing run
but the fact the system is
no longer profitable
?
Value Is EverythingI know what the section is Ginge. I wasn’t saying your question was in the wrong place. What I was getting at is that some systems included ones I’ve put up on here follow selections religiously without taking value into the equation, ie any horse that fits the system is included in results regardless of price/value which could be one reason
Why would anyone back any 4/1 shot if they did not have any/much idea what percentage chance the horse had of winning?Why do punters ignore ignore the mathematics?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Gingertipster, do you
know
for certain that whenever you make a horse 8/1 they win approximately 11.1% of the time ? Do you have accurate records that show your estimates are usually in the ballpark ? You might, but I doubt it.
To elaborate, any backer who concludes that a "fair" price for a horse should be around 5/1 has no way of ever discovering whether he was right or not, as a single result can prove nothing either way, especially when as in this case a genuine 5/1 chance could only ever be expected to win one race in six anyway.
To elaborate, any backer who concludes that a "fair" price for a horse should be around 5/1 has no way of ever discovering whether he was right or not, as a single result can prove nothing either way, especially when as in this case a genuine 5/1 chance could only ever be expected to win one race in six anyway.
Bluebook,
Of course no backer knows for definite whether anyindividual
horse thought to have a fair 16.7% 5/1 shot is right or not. Any
individual
assessment proves nothing. But if a punter backs
all
horses he/she believes are
fair 16.7%
chances at
6/1 or better
(N.B. some punters might want a bigger margin for error at 13/2+ or 7/1+) – then
IF
(and only IF) he/she is
good
at
evaluating form
an
over all profit
will be made.
Value Is EverythingGingertipster, do you
know
for certain that whenever you make a horse 8/1 they win approximately 11.1% of the time ? Do you have accurate records that show your estimates are usually in the ballpark ? You might, but I doubt it.
Of course I don’t know that I win approximately 11.1% of the horses I believe fair 8/1 chances. But the profit I make in both flat and jumps DLAP threads seems to suggest I am fairly good at evaluating fair 8/1 and other prices. Otherwise, If I was useless at it I would not be making a healthy profit. Both threads have been going for some time and neither thread relies on just one or two big winners to make a profit, so the reason for profit is unlikely to be luck.
Value Is EverythingWell, this was supposed to be a thread to help those new to racing. You would have to bet for a
very
long time before you could say with any confidence that your "value" selections were just that, value. In the example I gave from the Racing Post website the 8/1 shot finished fourth, with the three horses ahead of it in the market filling out the first three, as their very own betting line suggested. Now, was that the right bet or not ? Who knows ?! You could simply be throwing money away on horses you have no real right to be betting.
When I back a horse I like to think it has a
very good chance
of winning, not simply
a chance
, and that doesn’t necessarily mean only ever backing short priced fancies either. Your method is all very well with years of racing experience behind you, but for a newbie its toxic as it soon begins to erode ones judgment.
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