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Saurnday 30th May
Haydock 2:35
John of Gaunt Stakes (Group 3)2 trends…
1). 7 of the last 8 winners raced from stalls 1-3.
That Is The Spirit / Cable Bay / Emell
Signal strength = this trend has seen 8 wins from 10 Group 3 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a
trend. Felt to be a good indicator.2). All of the last 11 winners had an Official Rating in the range 107-117.
All except the following three horses line up with an OR in the range;
That Is The Spirit / Ascription / Emell
Signal strength = this trend has seen 38 wins from 48 Group 3 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a moderate indicator.Only Cable Bay follows both trends. Joint top rated on 114 and 5th, less than 2 lengths behind Night Of Thunder last time out in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. Despite lots of racing in top flight company, he has only ever won a Maiden and racked up a string of places.
My selection: Cable Bay 1pt e/w at 9/2
Good luck with your bets !
John of Gaunt Stakes – Result
My selection Cable Bay won at 5/1 (best odds guaranteed).
My original 20 points bank now stands at 20.1
Friday 5th June
Epsom 2:00
Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3)1 trend…
All of the last 11 winners were rated within 6lbs of the top rated horse.
Lightning Thunder is top rated and only Odeliz rated 2lbs lower is within 6lbs.
Signal strength = this trend has seen 5 wins from 8 Group 3 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a
trend. Felt to be a moderate indicator.This is a trend that appears to be quite weak with this year’s line up. Arabian Queen won a Group 2 last year as a 2yo and wasn’t disgraced in the Sweet Solero Stakes afterwards. She then tried to go with Tiggy Wiggy in the Cheveley Park Stakes and tired in the final furlong. This is the furthest that she will have raced over but it is a distance that fits her pedigree and at 10/1 I am going to buck the trends for this race and back this filly each way. She is rated 10lbs below Lightning Thunder but does receive 12lbs. Word of caution, no 3yo winner since Kootenay in 2002
My selection: Arabian Queen ½pt e/w at 10/1
Princess Elizabeth Stakes – Result
My selection Arabian Queen won at 10/1 (early odds taken).
My original 20 points bank now stands at 27.1
**I would just like to add at this point, trends are not to be followed blindly, but should be used to help form a judgement and in this instance I chose to ignore the trend that I had noted. The idea behind following trends is to help try and find the advantage. Until my trend stats consistently show a 100% strike rate, I will always use them mainly as a guide rather than a guaranteed method of finding winners.
Looking at the 10/10 trends for the Derby it narrowed it down to GH, JH and HH.
This is one of the reasons I like trends as whilst they are not a 100% certain way of picking winners, they do help to narrow down the field a lot of the time.
Saturday 13th June
Musselburgh 3:25
Scottish Sprint Stakes (Heritage Handicap)2 trends…
1). All of the last 9 winners were aged 4yo-6yo.
Signal strength = this trend has seen 15 wins from 19 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a good indicator.2). 6 of the last 7 winners had an Official Rating in the range 94-104.
Signal strength = this trend has seen 24 wins from 35 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a moderate indicator.49 runners at the 5 day declaration stage with 21 being 7yo or older. To reduce it even further another 22 fail on the handicap rating leaving just 6;
Boom The Groom
Demora
Perfect Pasture
Online Alexander
Boomerang Bob
Desert AceAs this is a £100k race it attracts the best sprinters in the north and that is why the recent OR trend has become notable and it also seems that this race tends to favour the younger up and coming horses. I am going to wait until the final declarations are published before seeing if there is a horse that I like the look of.
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Saturday 13th June
York 3:45
Charity Sprint (Handicap) Stakes2 trends…
1). All of the last 10 winners carried a weight in the range 8-7 to 9-1.
Signal strength = this trend has seen 1 win from 2 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a good indicator.2). All of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating in the range 87-97.
Signal strength = this trend has seen 24 wins from 35 Heritage Handicap races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a moderate indicator.38 runners at the 5 day declaration stage with 15 being outside the OR range. The weights have yet to be published so that trend cannot be applied although I am not sure that it will be all that indicative with just 2 previous races followed using it.
I will update this post again after the final declarations have been published.
Updates…
Saturday 13th June
Musselburgh 3:25
Scottish Sprint Stakes (Heritage Handicap)4 runners left in at the final declarations stage that follow both trends;
Boom The Groom – ran well to finish 3rd in the dash last week, 3 of his 4 wins have been on all weather with the other on GF which is forecast for tomorrow.
Demora – course winner that has won on all sorts of goings including this race on Soft last year. Likes racing in June with 3 wins and a 2nd from 4 races.
Perfect Pasture – looks to be more of an autumn/winter horse with all 7 wins coming in the August-January window.
Online Alexander – 4th, a neck behind Monsieur Joe last time out and the latter has since won a Class 2 handicap and then was 2nd in the dash.My bet: Online Alexander 1pt win at 7/1.
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Saturday 13th June
York 3:45
Charity Sprint (Handicap) Stakes9 of the 20 runners follow both trends;
Mukhmal – 6lb higher for the win last time out.
Bond’s Girl – likes 6 furlong races, 2 wins and a 2nd from 4.
Explosive Lady – placed in all 4 6 furlong starts so far with her only win to date on Good to Firm.
Scalzo – 3 runs, 2 1 1 up 18lbs for a 7 length Class 4 handicap win last time out.
Grandad’s World – his 2 wins have been at Pontefract which is a completely different type of course to York.
Twilight Son – was 3¼ lengths in front of Magical Memory last time out reciving 4lbs, this time gives 1lb. Has won all 3 starts so far, needs to be respected.
Magical Memory – dropped down to Class 3 company and won last time out at Leicester (2nd win there) favours left hand courses.
Encore D’Or – way off at Listed level last time, is now paying the price for a big win at Maiden level.
Cool Strutter – another one struggling after winning a Maiden in good style.My bet: I should back Twilight Son but instead I am going with my gut on this one and having 1pt e/w at 16/1 on Explosive Lady.
Good luck with your bets !!
Results…
Saturday 13th June
Musselburgh 3:25
Scottish Sprint Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Shane Grey did a Lone Ranger impression on Online Alexander her chance went at the gates. I’m not saying she would have won but with a good start would have been right up there with a chance.
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Saturday 13th June
York 3:45
Charity Sprint (Handicap) Stakes
I should go on a diet and lose my gut, then I would have backed the winner !! Instead I watched Explosive Lady toil and she was was never at the races.My bank now stands at 24.1pts and I am sure there going to be a few bets at Ascot this week.
Good luck !!
Royal Ascot Day 1 – Tuesday 16th June 2015
Queen Anne Stakes at 2:30
Group 1 4yo+ over 1m (Straight course)1 trend;
10 of the last 11 winners had already wona Group 1 race.
5 of the 8 runners have already won a Group 1 race, are the British horses going to be good enough ?
Able Friend
Night Of Thunder
Solow
Toormore
EsoteriqueNo bet for me.
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Coventry Stakes at 3:05
Group 2 2yo over 6f2 trends;
1). All of the last 17 winners had won their last race.
2). All of the last 9 winners had won their Maiden first time and gone into this race unbeaten.
6 of the 18 follow these trends…
Air Force Blue – won a very competitive Maiden and both 2nd + 3rd that day won comfortably next time out.
First Selection – won his Maiden on the all weather and followed up with another win on turf, both over 5f. bred to stay further, but a question mark for me.
Macchus – went clear to win his Maiden in style, no real form from others in the race to show how good this was.
Qeyaadah – won his Maiden without being pushed too hard, just did enough to win. 2nd that day Nelspruit won his Maiden next time out and then was 2nd in a Listed race.
Round Two – won his Maiden and comfortably won a Listed race after that.
War Department – Easily won his Maiden but 2nd that day could only manage 3rd next time is a slow race.My bet: 3pts win at 8/1 on Air Force Blue – has rock solid form and despite tiring near the finish in his Maiden, will have come on for that.
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Kings Stand Stakes at 3:45
Group 1 3yo+ over 5f2 trends;
1). All of the last 6 winners had an Official Rating of 113 or higher.
2). All of the last 11 winners had finished in the first 4 last time out.
Only Mecca’s Angel follows both trends;My bet: ½pt e/w at 7/1 (¼ odds) on Mecca’s Angel – sentimental confidence in the trends.
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St.James Palace Stakes at 4:20
Group 1 3yo Colts over 1m (Round course)3 trends;
1). All of the last 21 winners had an SP of 9/1 or shorter.
2). 7 of the last 8 winners had raced from stalls 3-8.
3). 15 of the last 16 winners had already won a Group 1 or Group 2 race.
2 of the 6 runners follow all 3 trends;
Gleneagles
Make BelieveMy bet: I can’t see Gleneagles being beaten but don’t like backing odds on so instead I am going 2pts Straight Forecast on Gleneagles to beat Make Believe.
Good luck with your bets !!
Royal Ascot Day 2 – Wednesday 17th June 2015
Jersey Stakes at 2:30
Group 3 3yo over 7f2 trends;
1). 10 of the last 11 winners had an SP of 12/1 or shorter.
2). 10 of the last 11 winners had an Official Rating of 103 or higher.
Only 1 of the runners definitely follows both trends and that is Ivawood.
The odds will need to be checked on the day for;
Dutch Connection
Bossy Guest
FadhayyilMy bet: Ivaowood is too good for these 4pts win at 13/8.
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Queen Mary Stakes at 3:05
Group 2 2yo Fillies over 5f2 trends;
1). All of the last 11 winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
2). All of the last 11 winners had won either or both or their last 2 races.
14 of the 23 runners follow both trends;
Besharah
Bruised Orange
Cobana Sand
Delizia
Easton Angel
Kassia
Kurland
New Road Side
Rah Rah
Ring Of Truth
Rosealee
Secret Tale
Shaden
Silk BowNo bet for me.
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Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at 3:40
Group 2 4yo+ Fillies&Mares over 1m (Straight course)2 trends;
1). 8 of the last 9 winners had an Official Rating of 107 or higher.
2). All of the last 8 winners had finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out.
None of the 8 runners follow both trends;= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at 4:20
Group 1 4yo+ over 1m 2f2 trends;
1). All of the last 14 winners had an SP of 17/2 or shorter.
2). 16 of the last 18 winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time out.
None of the 10 runners follow both trends;= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Royal Hunt Cup at 5:00
Class 2 Heritage Handicap 3yo+ over 1m (Straight course)2 trends;
1). 3 of the last 21 winners had raced from stalls 7-22. (Trend is for those outside this range)
2). All of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating in the range 93-102.
9 of the 33 runners follow both trends;
Ayaar – 0 from 4 at Ascot, all 4 wins on Good to Firm.
Avon Pearl – much travelled horse, did win at Group 3 level last season.
Don´t Be – Jockey Luke Morris has been placed 8 times from 10 when steering, 5 were wins.
Coprah – Another traveller with less success than Avon Pearl.
Lamar – 2 all weather wins at Class 2 this year but not shown much else.
You´re Fired – Almost got up to win a Listed handicap last time out, has chances.
Bancnuanaheireann – Seems to be still a bit high on the handciap mark.
Munaaser – Unexposed so fr and the trainer has to be respected.
Infantry – Only 3 races and well beaten in a Listed race last time out.My bet: You´re Fired 1pt e/w at 20/1 (¼) 1st 4 places.
Good luck with your bets !!
Results
Royal Ascot Day 1 – Tuesday 16th June 2015Queen Anne Stakes
11/8 Winner Solow followed both trendsCoventry Stakes
2nd placed Air Force Blue was the best “trender”
3pts loss for meKings Stand Stakes
No horses followed all the trends
My bet Mecca’s Angel was a non runnerSt.James Palace Stakes
8/15 winner Gleneagles followed both trends
2pts loss for meMy bank now stands at 19.1pts
Royal Ascot Day 3 – Thursday 18th June 2015
Norfolk Stakes at 2:30
Group 2 2yo over 5f1 trend;
10 of the last 11 winners had won their previous race.
8 of the 12 runners follow both trends;
French Encore
Jazz Legend
King Of Rooks
Log Out Island
Rogues´ Gallery
Shanghai Glory
Waterloo Bridge
ZebstarNo bet for me
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Tercentenary Stakes at 3:05
Group 3 3yo over 1m 2f2 trends;
1). 9 of the last 10 winners had not raced from stalls 1-4.
2). 5 of the last 6 winners had an Official Rating in the range 103-111.
8 of the 14 runners follow both trends;
Maftool
Cape Clear Island
Disegno
Faithful Creek
Not So Sleepy
Peacock
Time Test
Bocca BaciataNo bet for me
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Ribblesdale Stakes at 3:40
Group 2 3yo Fillies over 1m 4f2 trends;
1). 7 of the last 8 winners had an SP of 17/2 or shorter.
2). 12 of the last 14 winners had finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out.
3, maybe 4 of the 10 runners follow both trends;
Curvy
Pamona
Pleascach
Gretchen ?? (odds)= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Ascot Gold Cup at 4:20
Group 1 4yo+ over 2m 4f2 trends;
1). 19 of the last 21 winners were aged 4yo-6yo (Yeats accounts for the other 2).
2). 14 of the last 15 winners had already won a Group race.
4 of the 14 runners follow both trends
Bathyrhon
Forgotten Rules
Mizzou
Vent De ForceMy bet: Mizzou 2pts win at 9/2
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Britannia Stakes at 5:00
Class 2 Heritage Handicap 3yo Colts&Geldings over 1m (Straight course)2 trends;
1). All of the last 18 winners had not raced from stalls 7-14.
2). 18 of the last 21 winners had finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out.
12 of the 33 runners follow both trends
Amazour
Bartel
Bow And Arrow
Capel Path
Cilento
Make It Up
Malaf
Quick Defence
Sacrificial
Sahaafy
Sugar Boy
UdododontuMy bet: Sahaafy 1pt e/w at 10/1 (¼ odds first 5 places)
Good luck with your bets !!
Results;
Royal Ascot Day 2 – Wednesday 17th June 2015
Jersey Stakes
14/1 Winner Dutch Connection was shortlisted but ended up not following the odds trend.
Fadhayyil was 2nd at 9/1
Bossy Guest was 3rd at 8/1My bet: Ivawood was nowhere – 4pts loss.
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Queen Mary Stakes
Winner Acapulco did not follow the trends.
Easton Angel followed both trends and was 2nd at 13/2= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Duke Of Cambridge
None of the 8 runners follow both trends;= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes
None of the 10 runners follow both trends;= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Royal Hunt Cup
Avon Pearl was 8th at 100/1 and the best of the horses following the trends.My bet: You´re Fired shot blanks, 1 pt loss.
My bank now stands at 14.1pts
Results;
Royal Ascot Day 3 – Thursday 18th June 2015
Norfolk Stakes
12/1 winner Waterloo Bridge followed the trend but so did 6 of the other 9 runners.= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Tercentenary Stakes
15/8 winner Time Test followed both trends, but only 3 runners did not.
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Ribblesdale Stakes
9/2 winner Curvy followed both trends.
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Ascot Gold Cup
Forgotten Rules was the best placed horse following both trends in 3rd.
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Britannia Stakes
10/1 winner War Envoy followed neither trend.
2nd placed Udododontu at 14/1 was best of those that followed the trends.My bet: Sahaafy lost me 2pts
My bank now stands at 12.1pts
Royal Ascot Day 4 – Friday 19th June 2015
Albany Stakes at 2:30
Group 3 2yo Fillies2 trends;
1). All of the last 11 winners did not race from stalls 1-9.
2). 6 of the last 7 winners won their previous race.
10 of the 19 runners follow both trends…
Ashadihan
Azhar
Back At The Ranch
Elegant Supermodel
First Party
Illuminate
Jersey Breeze
Palenville
Tutu Nguru
Vallance RoadNo bet for me
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King Edward VII Stakes at 3:05
Group 2 3yo Colts&Geldings2 trends;
1). 17 of the last 18 winners had an SP of 9/1 or shorter.
2). 8 of the last 9 winners raced from stalls 5-8.
2 of the 7 runners follow both trends…
Festive Fare
Stravagante= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Commonwealth Cup at 3:40
Group 1 3yoNew race, no trends.
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Cooronation Stakes at 4:20
Group 1 3yo Fillies2 trends;
1). 11 of the last 12 winners had an Official Rating in the range 108-120.
2). 10 of the last 12 winners were rated within 4lbs of the top rated horse.
4 horses follow both trends…
Ervedya
Found
Irish Rookie
LucidaNo bet for me
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Good luck with your bets !!
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