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I think so, but others may not be so keen on the trends. What I will try to do on this thread is look at some of the races over the 2015 Flat season where I think the trends are “strong” and could perhaps help us find those elusive winners.
I will kick off with the Huxley Stakes at Chester on Thursday 7th May.
At first glance it seems quite a tough race to analyse…
1st Trend: 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 105-120
2nd Trend: 9 of the last 11 winners were either the top rated horse or rated 1lb lower than the top rated horse
3rd Trend: 7 of the last 11 winners were favouriteApplying the above trends strikes just one horse off the list – Gabrial. Cannock chase is around 2/1 fave with the field being 7/2 bar.
Add some more ingredients…
7 of the last 11 winners top rated horses have won
9 of 11 had already won over the distance
8 of 11 had already won on the same going.Assuming the going stays Good to Soft, I think it is safe to put a question mark next to the favourite as 2 of his 3 wins have been on Good to Firm, but he did win his Maiden on Soft.
So what are the alternatives ?
Air Pilot has good overall form including wins on Soft and Good. Has won a Listed race and over the distance.
Grandeur has 3 wins from 3 runs on Good but just one 3rd place from 4 runs on softer going.
Maverick Wave has 2 2nds on soofter going but seems to prefer faster surfaces with 4 wins from 7 on Standard and his only other win on Good to Firm. Has only won a Maiden on turf.
Windhoek’s 4 wins have all been on Good to Firm, 2 at Listed level.
This leaves Fattsota, 3 of his 5 wins have been on Good to Softand another on Soft, but highest success level so far has been Class 2 Handicap.The favourite is now starting to look more appealing. Trainer form is not great but usually isn’t at the start of a season, however Ryan Moore is sizzling at the moment and knows Chester very well.
Starting with a 20 point bank, I am going to plunge in with a 1 point win on Cannock Chase at 2/1.
Good luck with your bets !!
OK, first one failed, so the bank now stands at 19points.
The Victoria Cup is my next focus, 29 runners currently declared to race, but if I apply 2 trends…
1). 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 4yo-6yo
2). 9 of the last 10 winners had an Official Rating in the range 85-96Applying the above trends leaves just 8 runners…
Lunar Deity, So Beloved, Dream Spirit, Russian Realm, Buckstay, Speculative Bid, Shared Equity and Shyron.Of those 8 3 have not yet won a 7f race which has been a trend (9 of last 11 had already won over the distance) – this takes out Lunar Deity, Dream Spirit and Buckstay.
From the 5 left, Shared Equity and So Beloved appeal to me based on their previous run. I am not a fan of claimers in big races, so i am going for So Beloved and hoping that I picked the right David O’Meara horse
My bet: ½point e/w on So Beloved at 16/1 ¼odds first 5 places.
Good luck with your bets !
Trends can be a fantastic way of spotting some significant factors in the way a race (horse, trainer or joockey) shapes up, factors that the market can underplay. Age influence (esp over jumps) is not taken fully into account by the market IMO (and my data supports that). But you have to look beyond some obvious things (draw being one) that are widely looked at.
On your Victoria Cup stats I’d say the second one is teh more interesting. The first is likely to reflect no more than the statistical probabilities (as the vast nmajority of runners will fall into your age group) rather than a trend which runs against the expected statistical outcomes.I look forward to following this thread, good luck.
Good luck with So Beloved Trendy. Russian Realm is interesting, Hughes rides at 8’10 when Hannon has a good one in Ninjago at a higher weight.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Speculative Bid wins at 10/1 and was in my final 5…
Lunar Deity, So Beloved,Dream Spirit, Russian Realm,Buckstay, Speculative Bid, Shared Equity and Shyron.My bank now 18 points.
Wednesday 13th May
York 3:15
Duke of York Stakes (Group 2)3 trends…
1). All of the last 11 winners had previously won a race over the same distance.
2). 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 105-117.
3). 10 of the last 11 winners had won a race at Listed level or better i.e. Group level.Applying the above 3 trends leaves 8 of the 15 declared overnight;
Astaire / Caspar Netschar / Gammarth / Jack Dexter / Justice Day / Lightning Moon / Mattmu / NaadirrAnother trend which is not so strong as those above is that all of the last 5 winners had won at their current rating or better, for example in 2010 Prime Defender was rated 105 for the race but had already won a race whilst rated 109. Only 3 of the above horses have done this:
Astaire / Caspar Netschar / Jack Dexter.Astaire had a poor 3yo season but seems to have bounced back as a 4yo. He was also 2nd in this race last year. His prep race then was the Greenham where he trailed ijn 5th 8 lengths behind Kingman. This time he was 2nd in a Listed race behinf Naadirr receiving 3lbs but then won the Abernant. He should be fit and raring to go and is my choice.
1 point win at 13/2.
Good luck with your bets !!
Astaire was 6th and just half a length behind the winner so I’m not too disappointed. I feel that the trends helped me identify a runner that stood a very good chance.
If we look at those first 6 that finished at least 1¼ lengths in front of the winner;
Glass Office 40/1
*Mattmu 14/1
*Jack Dexter 18/1
*Caspar Netscher 25/1
Muthmir 9/2
*Astaire 7/14 of them followed all 3 trends*
Muthmir failed on the trend regarding best previous win level.
Glass Office failed on the Official Rating, was 2lbs below the range 105-117.Previous to this race the stats for the 3 trends applied to this race are shown below. These are the figures that I have collected for all Group 2 races I have analysed (from the start of the 2014 season)…
1). All of the last 11 winners had previously won a race over the same distance.
3 wins from 3 and as Glass Office was a previous Distance winner, it is now 4 wins from 4 100%2). 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 105-117.
24 wins from 27 (89%) but now goes to 24 from 28 (86%) as Glass Office did not follow this.3). 10 of the last 11 winners had won a race at Listed level or better i.e. Group level.
12 wins from 14 (86%) and as Glass Office won a 3yo Group 2 race, it is now 13 wins from 15 (87%)It is fairly obvious that the more trends applied to a particular race, the list of horses following them all gets reduced and therefore the chance of the winner staying amongst them reduces as well.
This would suggest that perhaps when highlighting trends for a certain race, the stats for previous races should be cross checked to give a “strength signal” ? In the race yesterday, all runners were previous Distance winners and 3 from 3 on the overall stats table was not a good indicator, so this trend could have been ignored.
9 of the 15 followed the OR trend including Muthmir meaning that using that trend alone accounted for 2nd through to 6th, Lightning Moon in 7th also followed it meaning that 6 of those 9 that fell into the OR range finished in the first 7 places.
I have up to date stats table that can be referenced, but now I am entering into a grey area as they are on my blog and I am not sure if I can promote pages on there. My apologies to Site Admin here if this comment is incorrect and also if the following link is breaking forum policy, if so please remove. If not, then the link below shows the stats for all trends in races I have analysed. Note the date in each table, this indicates the date for which all results have been included. I do try to update these tables on my blog every day after the result is known for a race that I have analysed.
http://trendyrich.com/results/
(click on the table to see an enlarged version)Following on from previous post…
Looks like the link has either been sent for moderation or else not uploaded. I am not going to post it again and possibly contravene site rules. I cannot find a way to paste the stats table into here either – sorry folks.
Thursday 14th May
York 3:15
Dante Stakes (Group 2)2 trends…
1). 6 of the last 7 winners had raced from stalls 4-7.
When taken into account previously, this trend has only seen 1 win from 3 races.
Signal strength = poor.2). All of the last 11 winners have won a race before.
This only eliminates Medrano from the list of 8 runners. When taken into account previously, this trend has seen 3 wins from 3 races, but as 7 of the 8 runners follow it then it has no value.
Signal strength = moderate (based on only 3 races).The trends do not appear to help here so no bet for me and my bank stays at 17 points.
Signal Strengths meaning that will be used (in descending order)
Strong
Good
Moderate
Low
PoorGood luck with your bets !!
Thursday 14th May
York 2:40
Middleton Stakes (Group 2)3 trends…
1). 10 of the last 11 winners had an SP in the top 3 of the betting.
When taken into account previously, this trend has seen 3 win from 3 races. Likely to be;
Bragging
plus 2 from
Ribbons
Belle D’Or
Secret Gesture
Signal strength = moderate.2). All of the last 7 winners had an Official Rating in the range 108-121.
When taken into account previously, this trend has seen 24 wins from 28 races, today sees 4 of the 8 runners follow it;
Ribbons
Odeliz
Secret Gesture
Madame Chiang
Signal strength = good.3). All of the last 11 winners had finished in the first 4 places last time out.
When taken into account previously, this trend has seen 16 wins from 22 races (73%), today sees 5 of the 8 runners follow it;
Ribbons
Belle D’Or
Bragging
Talmada
Madame Chiang
Signal strength = moderate.As the OR trend has solid results (24 wins from 28) I will concentrate on this;
Ribbons – a Group 1 winner last August and 2nd in the Prix de L’Opera in October
Odeliz – last won as a 3yo at Listed level, went close a few times last year but always seems to find 1 or 2 too good for her.
Secret Gesture – 3rd 3½ lengths behind Ribbons in the August race last year, too many “mear misses” for my liking.
Madame Chiang – Has was at the course but only won on Soft or Heavy. 2 runs on Good have seen her comfortably beaten.I don’t quite understand why Ribbons is around 5/1. This is my selection.
Ribbons ½pt e/w at 11/2
Good luck with your bets !!
Thursday 14th May
York 2:40
Middleton Stakes (Group 2)Result…
Secret Gesture won and followed the first 2 trends but not the 3rd. Reviewing the analysis we can see that the 2nd trend was good as opposed to the other 2 that were moderate. These ratings are only based on my opinion, but given the stats you can apply your our ratings.
Ribbons finished 3rd at 6/1 so I got a small return with my stake.
My original 20 points bank now stands at 17.1
Saturday 16th May
Newbury 3:45
Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)3 trends…
1). All of the last 11 (20 out of last 21) winners had previously won a race over the same Distance, four horses line up that have not won over a mile before now;
Arod / Breton Rock / Cable Bay / Cougar Mountain
Signal strength = this trend has seen 3 wins from 4 Group 1 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a moderate indicator.2). All of the last 9 winners had an Official Rating in the range 113-136. Only 3 other winners in the last 21 runnings were rated going into the race and they were rated 117, 119 + 123. The other 9 winners were unrated.
Eleven horses line up with an OR in the range;
Night Of Thunder / Toormore / Aljamaaheer / Breton Rock / Custom Cut / Here Comes When / Moohaarib / Trade Storm / Tullius / Yuften / Integral
Signal strength = this trend has seen 11 wins from 12 Group 1 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a good indicator.3). 7 of the last 8 winners were either top rated or rated within 2lbs of the top rated horse.
Two horses line up that follow this trend;
Night Of Thunder / Toormore
Signal strength = this trend has seen 3 wins from 3 Group 1 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a moderate indicator.Following all 3 leaves just Night Of Thunder + Toormore, but I am going to concentrate on the second trend and go for Custom Cut. He has won over the distance and is rated 4lbs lower than the top rated horse. He has won 5 group races but none at Group 1 level. His only race to date at the highest level was the British Champions Mile on Heavy going. He started off nicely last month winning the Group 2 Sandown Mile and comfortably held two of today’s rivals that day. He has won 6 and been placed another 5 times in 15 races over a mile, won 3 of 8 on Good going and today’s jockey has won on him 4 times in 7 rides and been placed on 2 of those other 3 occasions.
My selection is Custom Cut and my bet is 1 point e/w at 8/1 first 4 places.
Good luck with your bets !!
Saturday 16th May
Newbury 3:45
Lockinge Stakes (Group 1)The two horses that followed all 3 trends were 1st and 2nd.
My selection Custom Cut was unplaced.
My original 20 points bank now stands at 16.1
Saturday 23rd May
Haydock 3:45
Temple Stakes (Group 2)3 trends…
1). All of the last 7 winners had previously won a race with an Official Rating of 104 or higher.
Only 3 horses fall into this group.
Signal strength = this trend has seen 2 wins from 4 Group 2 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a poor indicator.2). All of the last 9 winners had an Official Rating in the range 110-118.
Seven horses line up with an OR in the range;
G Force / Sole Power / Goldream / Hot Streak / Take Cover / Danzeno / Pretend
Signal strength = this trend has seen 26 wins from 31 Group 2 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a good indicator.3). 6 of the last 7 had already won a race at Group level.
Six of the seven horses from trend 2 follow this trend as well;
G Force / Sole Power / Goldream / Hot Streak / Take Cover / Danzeno
Signal strength = this trend has seen 14 wins from 17 Group 2 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a good indicator.I am going to ignore the first trend but will select a horse that follows both 2 and 3.
Goldream won the Group 3 Palace House stakes 3 weeks ago and 2nd that day Justice Day was outclassed in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes next time out.
Danzeno has shown promise but I think there are currently too many established “big guns” lining who will have his measure.
Hot Streak won this race last year but struggled in Group 1 company. He was 3rd 2 weeks ago and I assume that was a prep race asw it follows the same format as last year. On the shortlist.
Take Cover was a handicapper that won a couple of nice races last year but seems to prefer ground on the firmer side and with the weather being like it is at the moment, might find this a bit soft.
G Force has shown potential but the Group 1 win was over 6 furlongs and seems well held by Take cover even on firmer surfaces. Yet to be seriously tested on softer going, appeared to hate the Heavy going last time out.
Sole Power has won only 1 of 5 at Haydock and never won on going softer than Good.Hot Streak and Take Cover are my shortlist, never really gives me much confidence but i will side with Take Cover and hoope that the going doesn’t have the inpact that I suspect it might.
My selection is Take Cover and my bet is 1 point e/w at 14/1 ¼ odds (Ante Post rules).
Good luck with your bets !!
Temple Stakes – Result
Pearl Secret won and followed just 1 of the 3 trends, the first one. I made a typo when I wrote the post, it should have said “Only 3 horses don’t fall into this group“. His O/R was 109 for this race and just below the low end of the range, i.e. 110 and the previous best win was at Listed level. This looks to be a horse that is improving and may be worth noting for the future.
My selection Take Cover was unplaced.
My original 20 points bank now stands at 14.1
Thursday 28th May
Sandown 7:10
Henry II Stakes (Group 3)2 trends…
1). All of the last 8 winners raced from stalls 5-7.
High Jinx / Simenon / Alwilda
Signal strength = this trend has seen 8 wins from 10 Group 2 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a
trend. Felt to be a good indicator.2). 8 of the last 9 winners had an Official Rating in the range 106-117.
Five horses line up with an OR in the range;
High Jinx / Simenon / Forgotten Voice / Forever Now / Vent De Force
Signal strength = this trend has seen 36 wins from 48 Group 2 races that I have analysed and noted it to be a trend. Felt to be a moderate indicator.Quite strange to see a stalls draw trend in a 2 mile race. Coincidence ?? Maybe not with the start for this race being towards the bottom of the hill, it gives jockeys a chance to put their mounts into a nice position following the leaders up the hill.
2014 Brown Panther, 11 ran: tracked leaders, shaken up 2 out, driven clear
2013 Gloomy Sunday, 10 ran: tracked leading pair, shaken up 2 out, driven and stayed on
2012 Opinion Poll, 10 ran: held up in midfield, quickened to lead inside final furlong
2011 Blue Bajan, 8 ran: tracked leaders, challenged 2 out, lef 1 out, driven clear
2010 Akmal, 9 ran: made all, pushed along 3 out, driven and found more
2009 Geordieland, 7 ran: held up in rear, chased leader 2 out, challenged 1 out, ridden out
2008 Finalmente, 8 ran: led, pushed 2 out, rallied to hold on
2007 Allegretto, 7 ran: tracked leading pair, challenged 2 out, stayed on gamelyLooking at the above, I reckon 6 of those 8 winners had the benefit of being tucked in and letting the leaders “tow” them round, hence the draw becomes a factor for such a long distance race. I’m going with this and of the 3 in 5, 6 and 7…
I think Alwida needs to find something that so far she hasn’t shown. Twice a winner over 1m 6f but in much lesser company.
High Jinx won a Group 1 over 2½m in October last year and was 2nd in this race last year.
Simenon won a Group 3 Hurdle last time out in July last year at Tipperary, a course as flat as the proverbial pancake.I think High Jinx had a prep race 4 weeks ago and with Ryan Moore on board will tuck in and use his stamina up the hill at the finish to best effect.
High Jinx 2 point win at 6/1
Good luck with your bets !!
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