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Surely people don’t expect suspicious betting patterns to be obvious to every Tom, Dick and Harry if someone’s getting up to some form of skulduggery?
Were there suspicious betting patterns when Sean Fox came off his horse? A poster mentions David Probert coming off his horse in a similar fashion only the day before Cockburn but no one seems concerned about that. What about Eva Moscrop on Dr Irv 12 months ago?
It looked liked Cockburn lost his balance and fell off when his horse jinked to me.
Surely people don’t expect suspicious betting patterns to be obvious to every Tom, Dick and Harry if someone’s getting up to some form of skulduggery?
Well, I think it’s a fairly rational to analyse Betfair as that is the only possible outlet for a "lay-in-running"-style coup.
Mike
Surely people don’t expect suspicious betting patterns to be obvious to every Tom, Dick and Harry if someone’s getting up to some form of skulduggery?
Well, I think it’s a fairly rational to analyse Betfair as that is the only possible outlet for a "lay-in-running"-style coup.
Mike
Yes, but what would be the point if you’re going to be easily found out?
Was the horse Sean Fox came off subject to suspicious betting patterns?
Yes, but what would be the point if you’re going to be easily found out?
Indeed! However, a number of rather stupid people have tried some dodgy moves via Betfair in the past and they’ve been caught out by it’s paper trail.
I think people on here were just trying to absolve Mr Cockburn of any part in a betting coup as one clearly hasn’t taken place.
Mike
Glenn,
Not sure I fully understand your point, but I was just noting that there was no significant difference between his fixed odds SP and his Betfair SP – on the assumption that if there had been any significant corrupt layers involved, the difference would have been bigger.
I certainly haven’t looked at the race in enough detail to know if the SP was reasonable based on his form.
No offence meant AP, but that method is utterly hopeless at detecting suspicious betting patterns these days. The fixed odds books just follow the Betfair prices in lockstep. Any difference when the music stops is largely down to the vagaries of Betfair SP reconcilliation and/or offices manipulating official SP rather than differences of opinion between the bookies and betfair.
I suspect that the horse would have been a loser across the bookmakers at SP (ie more than 12.5% of the money they fielded was for it and the 7/1 didn’t represent weight of money with the bookmakers).
Were there suspicious betting patterns when Sean Fox came off his horse?
Put it this way, the wall of money against it on Betfair was enough to make both the Betfair book constantly overbroke and all his rivals arbs…virtually throughout the entire show.
Were there suspicious betting patterns when Sean Fox came off his horse?
Put it this way, the wall of money against it on Betfair was enough to make both the Betfair book constantly overbroke and all his rivals arbs…virtually throughout the entire show.
As I remember it:
Couldn’t swear by it, but if memory serves – Ice Saint was early morning fav, before taking a walk out to 4/1 SP (apparently lot bigger on exchanges), the others SP’s 15/8, 2/1 and 9/2.
Studying the race paddockside on the day, no runner had a Timeform rating, or if they did it was dire; dashes and squiggles. Although it was Ice Saint’s first chase start so he would not have had a rating. On his poor hurdle form should’ve had the best chance, but freindless in the market.Got a strange ride, Fox rode with his stirrups higher than all the other jockeys, went notably wide on the first bend. Horse made one error but remained perfectly straight. Then, Ice Saint seemed to jump the fence ok, brushed the top if anything but again remained perfectly straight, yet Fox seemed to jump off, towards the rail and away from the other runners. Remaining on the ground for some considerable time as if injured, before getting up and walking away.
Value Is EverythingThere is a music stop that sticks out like a sore thumb – a few minutes before the off, someone (one bet) was confident enough to lay-out over £ 18,000.00. Try that one trackside or anywhere else !
Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.
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