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Flat Handicap Notebook 2019

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  • #1434974
    Avatar photoVenture to Cognac
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    Thought I’d use this to try and spot a few worth following.

    The first two aren’t really “Notebook” horses as far as I’m concerned, as I mention them enough anyway.

    Justanotherbottle
    Absolutely miles better than we seen at Ayr last autumn, and already given a chance by the handicapper. Just the type to win a big one, and I think he will.

    A Momentofmadness
    No real surprise to see him in here. Excuses during the week, and surely a case of “when”, rather than “if” for him.

    The Mouse Doctor
    Absolutely no luck in running, in big Handicap, The Petingo, at Leapordstown last year. He’s actually been lowered a pound for that, which is excellent, considering he’s a winner that got away, and I’m patiently waiting on him.

    Protected Guest
    Ran a cracker on his reappearance, and interestingly, he wasn’t knocked about when his chance of winning had gone (should have made frame). I liked him for Hunt Cup, but he’s struggling to get in there surely. He’ll be of serious interest around the likes of Ascot or Goodwood.

    Chiefofchiefs
    He’s had a few disappointments now, but I’m staying loyal, and still very interested in him this year, and The Golden Mile or Cambridgeshire, look feasible targets.

    Argentello
    He might head out of Handicaps eventually, but the manner of his win at Kempton last year is hard to forget.

    Numerian
    Joseph O’Brien inmate. Hard to pinpoint exactly where he’ll go, but I’ve seen a definite bit of potential I think.

    Markhan
    I’ve been keeping an eye on him for a while now, and hard to figure exactly what the plan is, but from what I’ve seen, I think there is a definite plan.

    Isomer
    No luck in running first time out, but he fair caught the eye, and he’ll surely make amends this summer.

    Squats
    Hard to catch right, but no Ill effects for his stable switch, as seen at Ascot yesterday, where I thought he ran a very encouraging race for his new yard. I’ve bet him a few times in the past, and all about timing with him.

    Gumball
    Really impressive so far, and if the stamina stretches, then surely a real Cesarewitch candidate.

    Cliffs of Dooneen
    In the best of hands since leaving Aidan O’Brien, and I’m fairly certain he’s got one in him this season. He could be another one for The Cesarewitch.

    Eeh Bah Gum
    Don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet, and should mop up a couple up north this year.

    Tricorn
    Not concerned with his low key debut for new stable. Seems perfect type for something like the Scottish Stewards Cup. Might get a chance to see him this week at York.

    Rock Eagle
    Love this horse, and another one who surely has a future away from Handicaps. Possibly staying the Handicap route for now, with an entry in The Jorvik this week, where I think he looks a solid price at 9’s. I hope he goes.

    #1437038
    Avatar photoKevMc
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    Markhan won a hurdle race over in the US at the weekend Bobby, FYI :good:

    I’m tracking Eh Bah Gum & Rock Eagle also, think they’ve definitely races in them.

    #1437677
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    Interesting Kev, taking a step back, and totally missed that with Markhan. Even more interested in him now, and would still be interested in him for the flat. Just hope he comes home from the states though lol

    #1439400
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    Delighted with the run of Eeh Bah Gum the other day, while Bottle liked as if he needed it. Hopefully can nab a price on him when he’s good to go.

    I’m not really betting just now, but I did bet that pair.

    Tricorn was predictably outclassed at York, but I remain hopeful of a few returns from him once sights are lowered. I might even go and see him if he runs at Hamilton, which I fully expect him to do.

    I haven’t got round to watching the runs of Gumball or The Mouse Doctor yet, but hopefully I’ll see something positive.

    Hope you collected from EBG Kev.

    #1446244
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    After a few disappointments, a lot better today, with Numerian placing at 50’s in The Britannia. Didn’t get a clear passage, and should have been much closer. Him and Eeh Bah Gum giving the thread a respectable look so far.

    Tricorn back out tomorrow, and after showing a bit more last time, I’m hoping for more progress without getting his head in front, with Hamilton in mind.

    #1450588
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    Very nice run from Beyond The Clouds at Ripon today, and it’ll be interesting to see what mark he gets, as well as his future entries.

    #1452251
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    I’ll keep you company over here VTC. Was going to do a Potato moment on the big race thread but bottled it.

    Lord North – Cambridgeshire

    No idea if he goes here or not but been waiting for this one to turn up for quite a while now. Won a decent maiden last year and was very well backed on the all weather which turned into a two horse race.

    Big one was his next run in the Heron Stakes at Sandown. Went really well for most of the race and was given a considerate ride the last couple of furlongs. I found a link to the replay but it does not really show how considerate it was compared to the head on one, so certainly would of got a bit closer if he tried.

    In the interview beforehand the trainer said ” there was not a lot between his pair at home ” which Dettori repeated straight after.

    Was hoping to see him at Royal Ascot for the Brittania but was gelded beforehand. Been hoping to see an entry in this for Newmarket, and off a mark of 98 could give him a great chance if turning up. :unsure:

    Anyway at 25/1 going to give him a good old go.

    #1452274
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    lol Botchy, only Potato can do a Potato post.

    Good to see you here, and though I won’t be betting Lord North, I kind of hope he wins now, as the thread needs a big win.

    Though if he goes the same way as most of these, he’ll at least be an each way return for you. Good luck mate.

    #1452277
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    I see Numerian entered at the Curragh in the Irish Cambridgeshire VTC!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1452283
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    Oh yeah Jack, he looks perfect for it. Checking daily for a market.

    #1452381
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    Paid off waiting out the market, and managed to get 12’s on Numerian, but 9’s still available, and that still looks ok here.

    #1452382
    Avatar photojackh1092
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    I went with 12s too VTC, mainly due to the mental gamble at Galway. His price is crazy.

    I could back about 5 in the race tbh….

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1452425
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    Totally nuts that 12’s, wasn’t it. Nice winner in Jassaar, but although no excuses with Numerian, another decent return, and I can’t accuse him of not paying his way.

    #1474629
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    Quick look back….

    On the main, quite a disappointing season from a good few of them, for a variety of reasons…

    However, there were a few highlights.

    It was a bit cheeky including Justanotherbottle and A Momentofmadness, but Bottle’s run at Goodwood, and Madness in The Symphony at York, despite only being each ways, easily make my top five returns of my season so far.

    Numerian was a cracker for me at 50’s at Ascot, and he paid his way twice after that as well.

    Eeh Bah Gum was another who paid his way, and he was rock solid in the first part of the Flat season.

    As I said on the other thread, the only downside of Protected Guest was that I didn’t put him up here when he did the business. Cracking winner for me at Yarmouth at 22’s, and you won’t have seen a cheekier winner all season. More to come.

    #1608197
    Avatar photoAlexander
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    Because I am a prisoner in my house due to positive Covid I’ve been up for hours pouring over the form book and setting out my ratings for the better quality races today.

    I’ll be betting where the selection is a clear choice. If I start off ok then i will follow through with the other races. If the early selections collapse, historically with my betting style, its been best practise to shut up shop and wait for another day with good quality races.

    Ascot 1.50 Lezoo 60

    Ascot 2.25 Oscula 70
    Kind Gesture 63
    Jumbly 59

    Ascot 3.00 Dark Shift 131
    Fresh 125
    Jumby 56

    Ascot 3.35 Westover 82
    EmilyUpjohn 52
    Mishriff 34

    Ascot 4.10 Finn’s Charm 109
    Naval Poower 26

    Ascot 4.45 Saga 90
    Dubai Mirage 80

    Ascot 5.20 Mountain Peak 59
    Lovely Mana 52
    Bond Chairman 49

    York 2.05 Thegreatestshowman 100
    Val De Travers 87
    Birkenhead 74

    York 2.40 Silver Samurai 109
    Ghathanfar 41
    Atomic Lady 45

    York 3.15 Dubai Honour 130

    York 4.25 Danni California 98
    Red Force One 55

    #1608332
    Avatar photoAlexander
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    Yesterday proved to be somewhat up and down re my betting; Lezoo was a good winner (6/4) but Westover let me down. I suppose I should have heeded the fact that he was sweating up somewhat in the preliminaries.

    Never mind onward and upward today: It is surprising to find such a good 25K handicap at Chelmsford AW.
    (I don’t bother with races less than 10K to the winner for betting purposes).

    Chelms 2.45. If You Dare 51
    ………….Misty Grey (38)
    ………….Desert Doctor 30
    ………….Dubai Station 23
    IF YOU DARE has a reasonable rating. It should really be higher given the potential in this race.
    The best form was achieved 100dys ago so we have to trust somewhat, however, given the odds of 9/1 this looks ok for an EW.MISTY GREY has a bracketed rating as the rating was achieved on a different surface than today’s AW.

    #1608387
    Avatar photoAlexander
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    IF YOU DARE Ran poorly – no excuses.

    Nothing of interest Monday but a good card at Goodwood Tuesday

    Alex

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