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If i am betting for entertainment on a Saturday afternoon, just to watch the televised races, i have occasionally had a lucky 15 and some of the high street bookmakers are quite generous with their bonuses, double/treble the odds on a single winner,100% bonus on all four,a good fun bet!
Without doubt the bet the bookmakers hate most is the E/W single,
even more if its an Ante-post 33/1 shot thats now 2/1fav, disagree with that "Corm" if you dare?If Corm doesn’t argue with that GWilson I will.
There are only a few ante-post bets worth having an each way bet on. Only those on one that sometimes does not go through with his effort. Or when it is not too far in advance and you can see the race cutting up.
However, when betting months in advance bookmakers love each way bets, at any price. If you have an each way bet on the Derby at a certain time, you’d probably get a fifth for finishing in the first three. Let’s say there are 150 entered at the time the bet is struck. So you need to be in the first 2% of the field to be placed. Yet probably only get paid the same as an 8 runner maiden (in the first 37.5% of the field). That does not seem value to me. I’d rather have a win bet at 33/1 and then lay it as a saver, if it comes down appreciably in price.
Mark
Value Is EverythingIf i am betting for entertainment on a Saturday afternoon, just to watch the televised races, i have occasionally had a lucky 15 and some of the high street bookmakers are quite generous with their bonuses, double/treble the odds on a single winner,100% bonus on all four,a good fun bet!
Without doubt the bet the bookmakers hate most is the E/W single,
even more if its an Ante-post 33/1 shot thats now 2/1fav, disagree with that "Corm" if you dare?If Corm doesn’t argue with that GWilson I will.
There are only a few ante-post bets worth having an each way bet on. Only those on one that sometimes does not go through with his effort. Or when it is not too far in advance and you can see the race cutting up.
However, when betting months in advance bookmakers love each way bets, at any price. If you have an each way bet on the Derby at a certain time, you’d probably get a fifth for finishing in the first three. Let’s say there are 150 entered at the time the bet is struck. So you need to be in the first 2% of the field to be placed. Yet probably only get paid the same as an 8 runner maiden (in the first 37.5% of the field). That does not seem value to me. I’d rather have a win bet at 33/1 and then lay it as a saver, if it comes down appreciably in price.
Mark
Ginge,
your argument was standing up until you compare an Ante-post bet
on the Derby, with a maiden! If for the sake of argument we use the above races to base this analogy, i will say now that i have backed "Gan Amhras" at 33/1 for the Derby knowing that because of his Breeding, form,
trainer patterns and Stallion potential, this colt will be aimed at the Derby
health permitting, the 150 entries will be down to between 10 and 20 at post time and he could even be favourite, my 33/1 stands, i base this opinion on what i have seen with my own eyes. why i would bet on a bunch of maidens who may be unraced dark horses, or most likely progressive types with no graded victories to date does not compare in my philosophy of gambling! Derby horses are proven, maidens are not, so value wouldnt even come into my reckoning for wanting to bet!Ginge,
your argument was standing up until you compare an Ante-post bet
on the Derby, with a maiden! If for the sake of argument we use the above races to base this analogy, i will say now that i have backed "Gan Amhras" at 33/1 for the Derby knowing that because of his Breeding, form,
trainer patterns and Stallion potential, this colt will be aimed at the Derby
health permitting, the 150 entries will be down to between 10 and 20 at post time and he could even be favourite, my 33/1 stands, i base this opinion on what i have seen with my own eyes. why i would bet on a bunch of maidens who may be unraced dark horses, or most likely progressive types with no graded victories to date does not compare in my philosophy of gambling! Derby horses are proven, maidens are not, so value wouldnt even come into my reckoning for wanting to bet!I don’t think 8 runner maidens are that bad, but if you think that then that’s fine.
Let’s just substitute it with 8 runner conditions race then or any race you would bet in that pays a fifth first three.
There is nothing wrong with ante-post bets, I bet ante-post myself. And to a certain degree most 33/1 shots thought a value win bet are also value each way bets. But they are far better value win bets than each way. When there are 150 possible winners and you bet each way you are taking one fifth for finishing in the first 2% of the field. You can say that the field will be down to 20 by the off. But that might mean your horse is one of the scratched. So you have shelved out double the stake just to get a fifth of nothing. And if he does run, at odds of 2/1. You are going to win four fifths less than you would betting the whole amount to win at 33/1. With that added four fifths you could have an opportunity to use some of it to lay it at 2/1 and be on a certain winner.
Let’s look at this 33/1 bet that becomes a 2/1 favourite a little closer.
Say you had £10 each way @ 33/1, you make a profit of £396 if it wins (including the place part).
If it is placed you make a profit of £56 So you have a return equivalent to just 2.8/1 on your enitial £20 staked on a 33/1 shot.
If it loses you lose £20
If I backed it, a £20 win bet would make a profit of £660
If it is a 2/1 shot on day of race, I can lay it to lose £160 (or put it another way win £80 less 5% commission of £4) so £76 is won.
So if the horse won I would win £660 less my £160 lay = £500 profit.
If the horse finishes in any other position (not just second and third) I get back £80 less £4 commission, less the original £20 win bet = £56 profit.
I could not lose.
I would make £104 more than you if it wins.
I would make the same as you if it is second or third.
I would make £20 more than you if it runs and is unplaced.
If it does not run we both lose £20.So who is getting the best value?
Mark
Value Is EverythingGinge,
I am not going to disagree with you,with regard to laying horses
as i do that myself, so i too could lay my 33/1 Derby horse,( in running,)
should it actually get there and have, not just a no lose bet, but a bet that
is guaranteed to make a profit! should it run! This point of the 150 potential
runners in the field could be narrowed down already as there is probably
at least 20 from Aidan O,Briens! At least you know about backing/laying
and Ante-post, so you have my respect there! unlike some on this forum
who haven"t got a clue!Thanks GWilson for your praise.
My point was really, why bother with an each way bet when you can lay off later, with probably a bigger profit?
Mark.
Value Is EverythingThanks GWilson for your praise.
My point was really, why bother with an each way bet when you can lay off later, with probably a bigger profit?
Mark.
Ginge,
Valid point taken, perhaps i still stick with my Ante-post e/w bets
because until the possibility of laying horses arrived, i saw it as extra security protecting my stake, but also possibly making a place profit!
Theres nothing worse than an Ante-post bet thats been laid months in advance and watching the odds tumble,to be beaten in a photo finish!,at least place money is better than no money! i shall certainly take on board your advice,and delve a bit deeper into its logic! Cheers!I agree with Ginge and what he is saying but I never lay horses so I often back EW when backing AP. Recently I had a considerable bet on Calgary Bay at 40/1 1/4 the oddds 123.
What I did on that occasion: Example: 20pts win 10pts ew
30 pts @40/1 1225 pts + 110 pts for the place.
In that way I have covered my backside and made a decent profit if the horse is placed.
My place stake varies depending on the price. When I backed Kauto Star at 7/1…. Example 40 pts win 70pts ew
880 pts for the win and 192.5 for the place.In that case all I was looking to do was to make sure I didn’t lose money if he is placed.
It goes against the grain for me to lay horses. I work too hard to find the Binoculars of this world to give half of the would be profits back to some bookmaker……..they can sweat their backside off from now till then and if I lose I lose. Way I look at it is I will I’ll eventually win snd win big as long as I can keep digging them out…I know that for a fact as I have done so in the past…..so stuff the laying.
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