- This topic has 92 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 6 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Trying billion trying
His point about Spotlight was that it has an influence on betting, as it is what many bettors read as they weigh up a race. At the time he esimated up to 5% extra betting. Now with exchanges and the decline of the betting shop that will have fallen I’d think but his point was to remove overbet horses in the search for value just as you are looking for that 7% extra.
He used handicaps, I’ll try to look at what happens in the next few days though obviously a much longer study is needed to see if the system still has value. It’d be intersting to know his views on many of the systems in that book. It is a good read, as I think most of his work is whether you accept his findings or not.Hi everyone
This thread has been interesting reading for me as it does mention my system for faves only . This system of (RPR top rated horses are a bet only if they are faves going post)was posted on many forums to see if anyone could take it any further.This system still gives me after 3 years 55% winners and i do have a good living from it , as i said in my origional thread that i stop at a winner every day .I do realise this is not everyones cup of tea and i do agree that you do need a large bank so perhaps it wouldnt work for everyone.I must also add that i miss some of the horses it selects as after 3 years of doing this i tend to know if they stand a good chance or not.I would still love to know if anyone has taken this system any further , my friend has tried using it with the A,T,R speed fig but i am still waiting for the results .
Good look guys and if you ever want to discuss this further i do have an email adress to do soThanks for the reply and explaination
KOPWAS
I understand a little better now.
I don’t have access to SPOTLIGHT but nevertheless would be interested in your results.
Billy's Outback Shack
My guess is, without a reply yet,
MAL1964
is also lesleyone from the Adrian Massey forum, well at least I hope so otherwise I am making a complete ass of myself but then again it won’t be for the first time and I am sure it will not be the last.
I must first of all say well done for making a good profit for three years and doing it against the opinion of the crowd deserves even more credit.
Three years plus ago as Bill S. in November 2006, I started a thread on Massey (staking plans) headed Stop At A Winner – Staking Plan, which resulted in my first of three bans and unless attitudes have changed it is a much hated method of staking, my attitude then and still is today that of "live and let live", if it works for you and suits your style and of course is making money it must be OK, it may not be ideal for ALL but what the heck.
I cannot say that I am the biggest fan of increased stakes having burnt my fingers the hard way many years ago but again if it works for you is all that matters and long may it continue, I just hope what most fear never happens to you.
I am not sure your system can be improved, not by me anyway as it is such early days with this experiment but perhaps you can suggest some offerings which may help here.
However I do have just one question, you say you play with increased stakes until you have a winner, normally within 3 bets and then having got your winner you stop.
Why?
Maybe that winner will, as I am sure it has during 3 years come with your very first bet of the day so why not call that winner which may be bet 1, bet 2 or bet 3 the stop but not for the day but stop of a sequence instead. Then restart a new sequence with the same stake as you would do so the next day, if the day ends say bet 3 without another winner you could start the next day with bet 4 and not bet 1.
This does not improve your system but should increase your turnover and in theory should increase your profit.
Billy's Outback Shack
Wednesday March 31
Blasting away with both barrels today with 5 selections and ALL meet the 6/4 min. criteria.
Hereford 2.40 OSCAR GOGO 6/4 +Tsp
Hereford 3.40 I HAVE DREAMED 15/8 +Tsp
Hereford 4.40 AZULADA BAY 7/2
Kempton 5.30 ATHWAAB 2/1 +Tsp
Kempton 6.30 LAYLA’s BOY +Tsp
Thanks to early prices today was saved and is recorded as break evenBilly's Outback Shack
I do agree with you when you say "why stop at the first winner " i guess my answer would be why risk when i have won . Im not going to be the first to say that i look at horse racing only as a meens to make money and i must admit i only took an interest 3 years ago. The problem is i know it will win most days so whatever i set my target at i win and then enjoy the rest of my day.I have a good friend of mine that thinks im stupid when i could go on and make more , and believe me when i say this i would if i enjoyed racing that much.
As for taking this system further i have data for this system from past days so im going to try adding the fibonacci facter and see if that makes any changes to the % of winners .
Thanks and good luckbillion,
I am with you in believing that chasing losses by increasing stakes on losing runs is a very dangerous strategy (mind you 1, 2, 3 stop-at-win is OK as it limits the liability).
If you are going to employ a staking plan other than
level stakes then raising stakes should only be employed to enhance profits. Here is an ancient plan for you to paper trade if you like:The Oscar Staking Plan (Originally devised for even money chances at roulette)
The aim is to stake the minimum to win 1 point per coup on Even money and higher odds selections (you can of course support odds-on selections of 1/2 where winnings are carried forward as part of a running double to the next bet without increasing the stake).
Rules
1. Commence staking with 1 point.
2. Stakes remain at the same level until a winner.
3. After each winner increase the stake by 1 point
4. After a loser stay on the same stake.
5. Continue until the arrears column is reduced to nil.
6. Always start a fresh coup with arrears of 1 point.
Example
Results/Stake/Lost/ Won/Arrears
L……………1……….1…………… (-1) = 2
L……………1……….1………………3
Evens…….1…………………1…….2
L……………2………..2……………..4
2/1……….2…………………4……..0Hello "Gentlemen"
I will say again, I sincerely believe it is best left to the individual concerned, if something works and you are happy with "it" it is wrong, in my opinion to tell them otherwise.
At least it has now been clarified as to how this particular favourite is defined …… on the way to post.
Can the system be improved ………………….. well only by experimentation, who knows it may be done here via non handicaps with a min 6/4 price (obtainable) but I fear it will limit the number of selections required, however, as they say
watch this sp
ace.
Billy's Outback Shack
Having lost all my data today and thus feeling pretty low at being such a clot I have back checked from this thread and
THINK
it has recorded just under 50% strike rate and at level stakes would have recorded 8.5 points profit, which at least ends the day on a bit of a high.
I did ignore the day which stated some selections were handicap races.
Billy's Outback Shack
Hi billion. Yesterday’s runners for you included 3 who did not go off as favourites, the three which lost! If you are saying the system is on the way to post should these not be omitted from your records anyway? I know this coould be seen as fitting results to your favour but is the stipulation that the selection is a favourite in the RP a forecast favourite or actual favourite?
Simple point of clarification for
KOPWAS
.
The concept behind this thread was taken from
LESLEYONE
‘s thread on the A. Massey forum. However it was never made clear as to what the true description of the
Favourite
was and so because of time restriction and my own style I opted for Forecast Fav. as per the Racing Post.
Since this time it has turned out that LESLEYONE is also a member at this place a.k.a.
mal1964
and he has clarified his recognition of the favourite as being "going to post".
For this experiment I will continue with RP forecast fav.
Billy's Outback Shack
Selection April 1 (let us hope it is not a fool).
I am still in shock regarding losing all my racing data for this year but nevertheless will start again.
Ludlow 5.30 CEDRUS LIBANI 13/8 early price
Non Handicap races
RPR Top rated
RP Forecast Favourite
Obtainable price being 6/4 minimum.If Topspeed top rated this will be shown but is not a qualification criteria.
I choose to bet only with early prices which are with "Best Odds Guaranteed"
Billy's Outback Shack
hi guys , just been reading your posts and i must say that on the original posting on massey i did try to make it quite clear that it had to be the fave horse and no bet if it wasnt .
I would like to give you the figures for yesterday which are as follows
sir pitt….. win
yaway ……win
covite ……win
carrig an…..win
brimham …..loss
abbey …..win
as you can see it was quite a good day but i must admit i did stop at carrig an uisce which was the first bet at 2.10 @ 2/1 . yesterdays results may have flatterd the system somewhat as i would only expect to see 3/4 winners and not 5 .
I am working on my system using a Massey thread and i have checked back the results for 1 month and they are looking a bit to good , i will check a full 8 months and then i will let you know .
Good luck everyone.mal,
thanks for your input too. I don’t know the Massey site maybe I should look it up. How do your parameters differ from billion’s, if you can share?billion, thanks for the clarification, keep it going mate
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.