Finding 7% plus

[billion]

Wondered where you were

FORMATH

and have been waiting for you to

"stick your oar in"

Words of wisdom are always welcome.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Now here is one for you

FORMATH.

It is not my intention to disagree with you just for the sake of argument but consider it more for debate because as a general rule I do think your 6/4 suggestion is sound, that is, most of the time, however there must be times when a punter must be flexible.

Take only yesterday, Sunday, the race was 3.35 Carlisle and there were only 5 runners in a non handicap race, ERNST BLOFELD was as good a certantity as there could be (my opinion) and I took an early price of 8/11. Before winning it drifted out to (I think 1/1) before coming back to 5/6, so perhaps it was not such a good thing as I thought it to be, nevertheless it still won and with best odds I collected a little more than I expected.

In your opinion was I right or wrong?

My thoughts were 8/11 in a race of 5 was better forme than say 6/4 in a race of 12, but we are not considering the quality of either the selection or the other horses.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

I hope I haven’t jinked it for you now

Oh no….I did ….sorry Billion

You say (like me) you are a small stakes punter but can you say what % strike rate you are having at what average SP.

This isn’t a question I can answer Billion as outside of thinking up and testing systems, which is my hobby, I don’t bet that often. So when I do bet it is usually within a set of criteria, normal with a fixed bank and either within a set time period or occassionally a fixed monetary target.

As I’ve always clearly stated – I am only ever messing around on the gee-gees, I don’t view myself as clever enough to do otherwise. For as Phil Bull once said (or was it Formath )

…we must get the best possible odds for our stake as, like it or not, after that everthing else is in the lap of the Gods…

[billion]

Thanks yet again for your reply

POMPETE

=========================================================

Experimental selections for Tuesday March 22

Non Handicap selections (having ignored Captain Chris @2/5) all other early prices from Odds Checker

Exeter 2.10 Apocal + Tsp. *SELLER? 5/2

Exeter 4.25 Here’s Johnny + Tsp. 11/10

Kempton 5.20 Good Company + Tsp. 15/8 (

Southwell 3.30 Colon Crwbin *MAIDEN 11/4

3 x 2nd which although not winners may indicate this could be the way to go

=========================================================

Handicap selections

Exeter 2.40 Smoothly Does It + Tsp 11/8

Kempton 4.15 King Brex 6/4

Southwell 5.10 Painted Sky 4/1

Not a good day for the handicap method

=========================================================

=========================================================

FORMATH

suggests NO BETS at less than 6/4 which would knock out both Here’s Johnny & Smoothly Does It, I worry about the Seller & the Maiden races which could knock out Apocal & Colon Crwbin, neither King Brex or Painted Sky have Top Speed top rating and therefore only leaves GOOD COMPANY.

Overall assessment of the day considering all 7 selections suggests FORMATH is the best loser

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Billion,
In your case maybe an overall average of not shorter than 6/4, and not individual bets would meet the requirement – but still amost precarious betting strategy.

As for odds-on certainties IMO only supporting those that won last time out would be an improvement. In which case Ernst Blofeld would not have been entertained as a bet.

Pete,
For aspiring pro-punters, ‘The only thing that really matters is the odds’.

[billion]

Many, many forkes in the road today. Everything within myself is indicating I should drop the handicap races and remain with the non handicaps, which I shall do because I think I stand a better chance of finding "LESLEYONE’s" 55% strike rate of RPR + Favourite.

FORMATH

possibly promotes a different approach of knocking out any selection less than 6/4 in the pursuit of profit.

I will proceed within the following rules: –

RPR top rated – RP Forecast favourite – Min. obtainable price 6/4

I will check along the way if TopSpeed is top rated and if Odds Checker shows selection as favourite.
=========================================================

Selections for Wednesday March 24

Haydock 3.15 NOUN de La THINTE 9/4

(+Tspd but early morning 2f)

Haydock 5.00 WORTH a KING’s 11/4

(-Tspd & 3f with early morning prices)

Hereford 4.15 FIVE OUT of FIVE 6/4f

(+Tspd)

Warwick 5.40 BREAKING SILENCE 13/8f

(-Tspd)

Warwick 2.20 PLINY 7/4f

(Maiden race -Tspd)

Billy's Outback Shack

[Anonymous]

Hi Billion,

Four winners out of five is a pretty impressive start!

If you can regularly produce results like this, would there be any benefit in also developing some sort of stakeplan other than that of simple win singles?

Regards,

Brian

[billion]

Hiya

BRIAN

Very exciting stuff eh!

But I have had one or two false dawns over the years but let’s keep our fingers crossed that we have found something a little bit special.

I agree with you that in time and with more data it may be possible to increase returns whilst remaining with smaller stakes being an ideal scenario and with returns like this on one day, my old favourite of "multiples" could come into play.

In truth only one of the five waas in my mind as a true selection being FIVE OUT OF FIVE with TopSpeed top rating and early fav on Odds Checker, 3 missed out with TopSpeed and the other was not early fav, so I guess the criteria will have to be sorted first before venturing into any staking plan.

All of that said, the basics are there for anyone to choose the elements they want and then can do their own thing.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Thursday March 25

Following a feast cometh a famine

4 possible selections with early ODDS ON prices plus 2 maidens at Kempton showing little or poor form.

Only one remaining selection: –

Ludlow 2.00 BUNDLE UP – also TopSpeed best rated, however one slight negative being 2 fav. with early morning Odds Checker. Also being a CLAIMING RACE which I am never quite sure how to categorise.

Early price 9/4 Won 13/8

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

Hi Billion

I’m not sure there is a right or wrong way to deal with these races. General, I treat Maiden races the same as Novices’ races, no problem. With Sellers and Claimers it is a bit tricky, some of them particularly Claimers are really Handicaps in all but name – albeit the trainers themselves are setting the handicap.

I think if you’re including these races in your system it’s a case of just monitoring results and trying to get a ‘feel’ for which individual races, if any, are suitable for your system.

Great start btw

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-happy057.gif

[billion]

Thanks for your reply

POMPETE

I think you are right with what I would call "suck it and see". Already I feel with the case of Maiden Races it must depend upon there being suffient form and then hope RPR can offer up a reasonable assessment.

Next question please. What are CONDITION races and how will they fit in to the handicap or non handicap category.

At present I am simply looking at the race header to see if handicap is included within the title.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Anonymous]

Hi Billion,

I’m not completely certain, but I think CONDITION races are non-handicaps just below LISTED standard.

b

[billion]

Thanks for you interest and your answer BRIAN.

I do think the racing categories are perhaps old fashion and a bit vague. I think I will stick with checking if the word Handicap is included within the race title and perhaps simply hope for the best.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Friday March 26

Non Handicap selections

Carlisle 2.10 BEAUTIFUL VISION +Tsp 13/8

Lingfield 2.40 WATASHIRTFULL XTsp 6/4

A possible if the price moves out just a tad: –

Wolv’s 7.10 DOUBNOV +Tsp 6/5 Well it did not win anyway!

Billy's Outback Shack

[Anonymous]

Hi Billion,

I do think you’ve hit on an intruiging idea here, so I hope you don’t mind if I continue to make some observations.

I haven’t done a full analysis of what you’re attempting, so I’m thinking on my feet, but let’s look at why I would’ve passed on BEAUTIFUL VISION in today’s 210 race at Carlisle, even if I had have been using a methodology based on top RPR plus Topspeed top rating.

1. Not all the runners in the race had a Topspeed rating. This alone would’ve started to put me off making any selection.

2. Beautiful Vision got it’s Topspeed top rating on a different type of course (Sedgefield) on a different type of ground (good to firm). That would’ve capped it, for me. Sedgefield is sharp, Carlisle is stiff. Sedgefield goes left handed, Carlisle goes right handed. Both courses are undulating and demand a good stayer, but I would’ve been more worried about their differences and the different ground than anything they might have in common.

3. Applying (1) and (2) would’ve satisfied one of my primary rules – bet only when it would be an affront to the available evidence not to.

I still think you might be onto something, but I’d want to apply your positives with a pretty robust regard to the possible negatives.

On the other hand, though, I’m not sure if I’d write off handicaps altogether. I’d be more worried about the vagiaries of maidens, claimers, sellers, novice races, etc – none of them handicaps, but every one notoriously unreliable.

As for handicaps, it’s a question, I think, of getting a balance between the better prices that are available and the fact that favourites are less likely to win.

Does any of this strike any chords with you?

Regards,

Brian

[billion]

Thank you for your input and interest

BRIAN

certainly as far as I am concerned there cannot be too much.

I think the basics are there for any member/reader to add or subtract to as they will, in order to create something that may work for them within their own style.

For myself, I have chosen NON HANDICAP races regardless of any winners I may miss and I agree the handicap races should produce better prices but also more losers. However the reasoning is non handicaps should favour the favourites but also by doing this I will have fewer selections as I do have problems handling higher volumes of selections plus I am also working with another on going idea, so it is a very personal choice.

For me your other point regarding Topspeed is far more valid but I am still unsure if I will or not include Topspeed as a priority criteria. Already I am starting to realise and knock out some races where RPR has a limited choice due to lesser available form. Over time the data bank will build and show what should or should not be included. What I have found with previous experiments is the greater criteria or filters included reduces the prices even further and they all end up as odds on. Whilst I am posting I intend to note if with or without Topspeed top rating.

As for your point number 2 which refers to different types of tracks is something I have never studied and with the new FLAT season upon us brings up the draw position which again is off my rada, but these are factors which can be included should anybody wish to start there own data bank using RPR/Favourite to begin with.

What I do like is what can be taken from other peoples input and how it provokes your own self into thinking differently and already alternative ideas are starting to creep into my thoughts as to how I can take this forward.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Despite being ready to crash into bed last evening I did my best to reply to points raised by

bcsim999 aka BRIAN

and hope I made some kind of sense.

However the points raised regarding incomplete Topspeed ratings and track variations as well as the knock on to the now arrived Flat season and Stalls/draw I am about to introduce an extra filter which I hope will go some way to bridging vagaries raised.

Again any interested reader member can add this filter if so wished and is the use of a common tipster, there are many out there and I guess some have more respect than others but you can choose your own favourite, or not.
=========================================================

Selections for Saturday March 27

Bangor 2.05

SANTERA

15/8

Bangor 2.40 Betterthanlikely +Topspeed 5/4

Doncaster 4.15

CHAIN OF EVENTS

6/4

Kempton 3.25 Suits Me +Topspeed 2f 7/4

Newbury 3.20 Osric 5/4

Stratford 2.25 Stratigic Gale 11/8

Although both SANTERA & CHAIN OF EVENTS do not have Topspeed’s number one rating they carry the vote of my tipster as does Osric & Stratigic Gale who both fall short of 6/4

Billy's Outback Shack

[Author]

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