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You have to go back to Minding (2015) to find the last Fillies Mile winner that went on to take the 1000g and in general to say they have a very poor record in doubling up in the two races would be a large understatement.
CAS – she is only 10s with Bet365 and BetFred (who have her as joint fav with Lake Victoria), but she is generally 8/1 outright fav with the likes of William Hill, Coral, Ladrokes, Boylesports, 888Sports and BetMGM) for the Oaks. SkyBet, Paddy Power and Betfair also have her as their joint fav with Lake Victoria but all at 8s.
On breeding alone you would have to say that Desert Flower is far more likely to stay 12F than Lake Victoria.
‘I said “recent years”, Mike.
Yes, take the last 3 years away and O’Brien has a brilliant record, but you cannot take those 3 seasons out. 5 of the previous 6 1000 winners prior to 2022. But what has happened since?’2 or 3 years is too small a sample to conclude that AOB can’t get a filly ready for the 1000 Guineas.
“On breeding alone you would have to say that Desert Flower is far more likely to stay 12F than Lake Victoria.”
Lake Victoria looks like a mile prospect to me due to her speed.
“2 or 3 years is too small a sample to conclude that AOB can’t get a filly ready for the 1000 Guineas”.
——————–Am not saying he “can’t” Mike… Just that many of his horses do need a run early in the season. ie Just like ground or distance or any other aspect of form. Anything that could (not will but could) mean a horse does not run to form – it must be allowed for in the odds I am willing to take.
It’s not just the Classic horses that seem to need longer.
imo Over the last few years the majority of his horses needed a run in the Spring. ie More than they used to at the time he was winning those Guineas four or more years ago.When it is the majority (and not just the Guineas horses) seemingly needing a run over the last 3 years… is that really “too small a sample”?
Value Is EverythingMy view, without the need to talk about the colts and sticking to the chances of the fillies, is that, whilst Charlie Appleby’s record in the 1000 Guineas hasn’t been great, Desert Flower might be one of his best chances of landing the race.
Mind you i think Lake Victoria’s speed/turn of foot shown over shorter may well give her the edge over Desert Flower on the day from what I’ve seen so far. And time will tell how Desert Flower will handle the dip when it’s rattling fast.
Do i think no AOB filly will be ready/fit enough to win a 1000 Guineas next year? I will say that is unlikely. It was only 2021 that he won his last one. Ylang Ylang in 2024 was only beaten a length even though it looked like she hadn’t trained on. Meditate in 2023 didn’t have the 2yo G1 winning European form going into it. Tuesday ran well in 2022 and likely to have needed further than a mile in view of her runs after.
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