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I had hoped that Falling Snow would run again after her maiden win then come here, but as she’s an antepost bet of mine, no doubt the wheels are falling off. Hey ho. I’ll stick with the form line though- Ballet Slippers has c9me past the line in each of her 3 runs with her mouth open pulling, and she’s by Magical
Ballet Slippers 18-1
The fav is more a Guineas than Oaks filly.
Wonder if Coolmore will make this a stamina test which may be against Tabiti too.Value Is Everything“Wonder if Coolmore will make this a stamina test”
Well you were right but Desert Flower just too good
Maybe pocket talk, but…
Was Wayne Lordon trying once he knew January was going to be second?Value Is EverythingImpressive once she found top gear.
Breeding says 1000g (dam won at a mile and 9F) but that looked more like a potential Oaks filly to me – got outpaced going into the dip but all power coming up the hill and the further she went the better she looked. A fast ground 1000g early in the season against quicker fillies might catch her out.
She won very well. Guineas and then the Oaks would be my idea, her pedigree doubts notwithstanding.
Unless the Guineas is slowly run Desert Flower’s speed shouldn’t be a problem.
Personally I would not say she was “outpaced” at all. Just didn’t travel as well as January on the bridle. Once asked – she quickened really well.Both Lake Victoria and Desert Flower’s form looks quite a bit better than the other 2 year old fillies and already have form up to winning a median “average” Guineas.
I prefer the Godolphin filly. As – although she might be up against a team of Coolmore horses… In recent years many Coolmore Classic contenders have not been ready in early May.
Value Is EverythingShe reminds me of Diminuendo. I suspect that she’ll run well in the Guineas but there’ll be one or two who will outpace her (Lake Victoria being the most obvious one), but she’ll come into her own over middle distances.
You’d have to worry about her handling Epsom, though, given how unbalanced she appeared in the Dip this afternoon.
“I prefer the Godolphin filly. As – although she might be up against a team of Coolmore horses… In recent years many Coolmore Classic contenders have not been ready in early May.”
The fillies do alright, AOB has won 5 of the last 10 runnings, and Charlie Appleby none.
I said “recent years”, Mike.
Yes, take the last 3 years away and O’Brien has a brilliant record, but you cannot take those 3 seasons out. 5 of the previous 6 1000 winners prior to 2022. But what has happened since?
In 2022 Tenebrism started favourite for the 1000 Guineas. Finished 8th, beaten 6 lengths by Cachet. Then next start in the Coronation finished around 4 3/4 lengths 4th behind a better filly Inspiral; a place in front of the Newmarket winner Cachet. Tenebrism then won the Group 1 Jean Prat.
Same year they had the 4/1 second favourite, Tuesday finished 2 lengths third to Cachet before improving significantly to win the Oaks. So both Tenebrism and Tuesday improved both their form and form and improved faster than other stable’s runners after the 1000.In 2023 Meditate started 5/1 second favourite and was only 6th, beaten 11 1/2 lengths at Newmarket (11 lengths behind the second Tahriya)… Meditate’s next start saw him finish 1 1/2 lengths 2nd in the Irish version… to Tahriya. So beaten 11 lengths by Tahriya at Newmarket, 1 1/2 at the Curragh.Significant improvement.
In 2024 Coolmore’s Opera Singer wasn’t ready and missed the 1000 Guineas before finishing 3rd in the Irish 1000. Then in the Coronation, 2nd – beaten only 1 length by the English 1000 second Porta Fortuna. With Unlucky 1000 Guineas runner Ramatuelle and Guineas winner Elmalka in behind. Opera Singer then won the Nassau.
The well fancied Ylang Ylang was the Ballydoyle representative at Newmarket – only 5th albeit beaten under a length.Between 2015 and 2019 Coolmore had 4 of the 5 winners, but what has happened since?… They have not won any of the last 5 renewals.
We all know what happened in the 2024 2000 Guineas. Odds-on fav City Of Troy was not ready and disappointed badly before a massive amount of improvement in winning The Derby.
In 2023 Auguste Rodin started a short priced favourite at Newmarket and was a well beaten 12th of 14 before massive improvement in winning the Derby. They also had the 5/1 third fav who finished last. Excuses were made he was “lame”, but was running again before the month was out… and won. Both Auguste and Bear improving significantly.
In 2022 Luxembourg was the Coolmore first string @ 9/2 and was 3rd. Charlie Appleby having the one-two, Coroebus and tative trail. Luxembourg won his next two starts including the Irish Champion… Improving
The last three years in particular have been very disappointing for Coolmore in the first two Classics.
For sure Charlie Appleby hasn’t had many Guineas winners, but he hasn’t really had much fire power either. In the same recent 3 year period he’s had 2 winners of the 2000 Guineas @ 16/1 Notable Speech and 5/1 Coroebus as well as a 5/4 2nd to his own horse… And nothing started shorter than 13/2 in the 1000 Guineas (nothing really fancied)… If anything those horses who have done well at Newmarket (Coroebus, Native Trail, Notable Speech) have not improved on their second start. Indicating they were ready for their Classic.
Given Appleby’s recent record in the Classics, if he has a fancied runner in the 2000 or 1000 Guineas I’d expect a good run. I don’t think you can say the same about O’Brien. It’s not only Guineas runners either. O’Brien’s horses generally haven’t been in good form that early in the season – compared to other times of the year… And it is not just this season. O’Brien seems to be training his horses differently in the last three years since his run of Guineas winners… And – possibly as a result – a better end of season.
Value Is EverythingNone of those Aidan horses were out and out milers
Even Little Big Bear ran in the guineas…
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
With the possible exception of Tuesday, those that were not “out and out milers” still should have done a hell of a lot better than they did, Nathan.
…And both Meditate and Tenebrism did a lot better on their second run at a mile than in the English 1000. Opera Singer didn’t even make the English 1000 before she was placed in the Irish.
Value Is EverythingI agree Aidan’s have come on for the run
he said years ago that he likes the horses to get fit in their own time. Was it Ballydoyle that went off fav and blew out after Aidan trained him at home on camera?
I still think it interesting a high percentage of his guineas horses were not proper milersCharles Darwin to conquer the World
The bookmakers clearly think the Oaks is unlikely for Desert Flower. 10/1 available with some firms.
Don’t get me wrong. I still believe Lake Victoria is the main danger and Fairy Godmother should be third fav… And if Bedtime Story decides to settle she could still be one to consider etc etc. With AOB having so many good two year old 1000 candidates this season, he should have one in A1 condition for the Guineas. However, when judging whether one particular horse is value I need to allow for the chance of that individual racehorse being ready to run.
Value Is EverythingDesert Flower’s dam Promising Run tried 10f a few times and didn’t run too badly. But her best form was over shorter. DF’s sire Night Of Thunder was an out and out miler. Disappointed in the Eclipse at 10f, 8th of 9.
I can see Desert Flower staying 10f.
If proving a miler in the Spring I can’t see them going for the Oaks.Value Is Everything
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