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Is it just me or is September a bit on the small side, doesn’t seem the type to train on. Don’t really understand why Middle of march is so obsessed with her, perhaps can’t give up on a bet that has gone wrong?
She’s absolutely screaming out for needing further and good ground.
Last time I fancied a horse like this for a specific race was One For Arthur..
She’s the Oaks winner judgy
Just sayingTotally agree. Ran ok in the moyglare on very soft going. If it stays good going till Friday then she will be a cracking bet in the fillies mile. Roly poly has dispelled the myth of small horses not training on. Let’s see how she gets on on Friday. Thought she looked more suited to the breeders cup than Clemmie but aiden and the lads seem to be getting most things right at the moment.
Liquid Amber dosage index is 2.60, which seems rather high for an Oaks winner.
I have never used Dosage Index in my life. I trust my eyes.
I agree, Steve.
Sire stayed 12f, dam stayed 12f. On breeding looks more likely to stay than not.
Well Dancing Rain had a dosage index of 4.78 so anything is possible.
To be fair I don’t understand what dosage index works anyway. I guess it’s to do with the stamina limitations of your bloodlines, not just your immediate parents. Looking at her win she showed quite a lot of acceleration at the end of the race, and her Dam where Liquid Amber is supposed to get her stamina from only once ran over 1 mile 4, but yes if you believe your eyes then go with that.
Roly poly has dispelled the myth of small horses not training on. Let’s see how she gets on on Friday.
Roly Poly is a more lengthy individual and has more size than September – not a good example.
…And anyway just because a small horse trains on does not dispell the fact a lot don’t, Mickey.
In order to make normal progression from two to three a horse needs to make around 7 lbs of natural physical progression. ie To maintain the rating a horse has at the end of its two year old season it must “improve” around 7 lbs.
Smaller horses tend to grow in to their frames earlier. ie Sometimes coming to hand early in the season (September was Ballydoyle’s first first time out two year old winner of the season) and then reaching a career peak by the end of their two year old season. This is why you often see small two year olds out in the early months and having full campaigns as juveniles. Lot of smaller two year olds are unable to make that normal 7 lbs progression from two to three and therefore their rating drops (fail to train on). Others might make the 7 lbs but little or no further. Could even be the odd one that keeps on improving.
Larger horses tend to improve more (sometimes much more) than the 7 lbs because they’re making more than normal physical progression – growing in to their frame. Therefore in many instances improving past smaller horses.
It’s not that all larger horses will improve significantly. It’s not that all small horses fail to train on – far from it. I remember with much delight in the 80’s Forest Flower proving the doubters wrong. It’s just that there’s a much higher probability of horses like September and Madeline “not training on” than there is of Clemmie and Alpha Centauri. It needs to be taken in to consideration just like when there’s a higher probability of a horse not acting on the ground or staying the trip.
Value Is EverythingTotally agree with all of that Ginger.
I always tend to look for a horse with plenty of scope. Same with jumping fences- if it’s a hurdler with a high rating that’s on the small side versus one with a lower rating but has the large physique to jump fences- I’ll go with the bigger horse almost everytime.
I think it’s a difficult one to size up before final decs. I think September should probably be put away for the year now but if she does spearhead Coolmore’s assault here then it would suggest they’re confident.
I’ve had an each-way bet on Quivery at 25/1. She’s a horse I liked the look of when I got to see her at Goodwood and she didn’t have the chance to show what she’s capable of there. Back on a course and trip I think will suit very well, and if the ground continues to dry then I think she’s good a very good chance of finishing in the money.
Looks like Aidan is throwing the whole lot at the Fillies Mile, Happily, Magical and September.
Have to agree with Charles that QUIVERY is a huge price considering she had no race last time out under a typical “Frank” ride !!
And it will be interesting to see what AOB chucks at this considering the record bid
September is atypical of O’Brien youngsters. Winning first time up and earning a RPR of 91 is encouraging but despite winning next time, it was only a rise of 10 lbs to 101 for that win. That figure is pretty modest for a Ballydoyle youngster from races 1 to 2.
In her two defeats subsequently, September ran to 102 on RPR, so next to no progress on the ratings. Even if we say we don’t think much of Racing Post Ratings, her official mark is 104, so not much difference.
I would expect a 2yo horse having its 4th start for O’Brien, to have improved more than 11 lbs over runs 2-3-4
September needs to improve for the step up to a mile in order to win the Fillies Mile in my opinion. Regarding the Oaks, I can’t remember a filly having 4 runs at 7F to kick off her 2YO career and then winning an Oaks. I would be worried she will actually get a mile and a half myself.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
September is atypical of O’Brien youngsters. Winning first time up and earning a RPR of 91 is encouraging but despite winning next time, it was only a rise of 10 lbs to 101 for that win. That figure is pretty modest for a Ballydoyle youngster from races 1 to 2.
In her two defeats subsequently, September ran to 102 on RPR, so next to no progress on the ratings. Even if we say we don’t think much of Racing Post Ratings, her official mark is 104, so not much difference.
I would expect a 2yo horse having its 4th start for O’Brien, to have improved more than 11 lbs over runs 2-3-4
September needs to improve for the step up to a mile in order to win the Fillies Mile in my opinion. Regarding the Oaks, I can’t remember a filly having 4 runs at 7F to kick off her 2YO career and then winning an Oaks. I would be worried she will actually get a mile and a half myself.
There’s a lot of things that can be said about September and why she won’t win an Oaks. Doubting she will stay isn’t one of them in my opinion.
She looks the only O Brien horse in either the Derby or Oaks at this moment in time that is a nailed on stayer.
O Brien himself has said that she will be a different filly next year when stepped up to her proper distance as a middle distance filly.
Her last two runs have been in ground that is too soft for her in my opinion.
A good ground race over 1m 4f will show her as a completely different animal.
As for Friday, I was right to hold off on backing her. She has drifted to 5/1. I think that’s more likely because of Happily and Magical running than her not running though.
Looking like a fantastic race on paper. Laurens is a good little filly as well.
It looks like Efaadah will run after all. She is declared and jocked up.
I think 14/1 could potentially be huge odds.
An easy winner on debut, prominent and then taking it up early, she quickened away to win readily. Next time out she was last, for reasons best known to the jockey, before coming through to be second to her old rival Soustraction.
In the Prix Marcel Boussac, Soustraction ran to more than 8 lengths worse with winner Wild Illusion based on their previous meeting in the group 3 Prix D’Aumale, when Soustraction won and Wild Illusion was 3rd, with Efaadah splitting the pair.
Wild Illusion is now rated 115 on RPR, so it is possible Efaadah is better than her mark of 102, with ample scope after only two starts. If you were reading the D’Aumale result without the winner and looking at Efaadah beating Wild Illusion and that filly going on to land the Boussac, I am sure there would be more support for the Head filly.
I’ll have a pop at 14/1 anyway.
Efaadah 14/1 to spring the surprise.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
September a non runner?
Drifted on Oddschecker from 5/2 to 6/1Thanks for that Andrew, glad i waited 6/1 September to win NRNB
Agree totally with some others about the ground being essential for her. Only raced on it once and missed the 7F Juvenile track record by 0.15 seconds without being hit once with the whip.
September a non runner?
Drifted on Oddschecker from 5/2 to 6/1More likely that’s because she was expected to be the only one of the O’Brien big three to run, now all three are running it’s a different story
Tempted with Magic Lily here, debut looked impressive, could never resist a striking chestnut
Obviously the O’Brien juggernaut is tough to crack here if he’s sending three at the race, but none of his I’ve looked at and thought “wow” that’s a super filly. Maybe that’s why he’s sending three at the race with this group one record on the line, he wants as many darts as possible. If he had something in there which was exceptional doubt he would bother to declare all three of them.
Love the way botchy is aftertiming the biggest possible price, thought you had all your accounts closed mate?
September a non runner?
Drifted on Oddschecker from 5/2 to 6/1Thanks for that Andrew, glad i waited 6/1 September to win NRNB
Agree totally with some others about the ground being essential for her. Only raced on it once and missed the 7F Juvenile track record by 0.15 seconds without being hit once with the whip.
Indeed. The fast ground of Ascot week saw her win whilst finishing as if she needed further.
This is the first time since she will get her ground.
I’ve decided to back her. Also done the favourite (who I think is high class) to beat our filly in a forecast saver.
September 6/1
Tempted with Magic Lily here, debut looked impressive, could never resist a striking chestnut
Obviously the O’Brien juggernaut is tough to crack here if he’s sending three at the race, but none of his I’ve looked at and thought “wow” that’s a super filly. Maybe that’s why he’s sending three at the race with this group one record on the line, he wants as many darts as possible. If he had something in there which was exceptional doubt he would bother to declare all three of them.
Love the way botchy is aftertiming the biggest possible price, thought you had all your accounts closed mate?
I’m not sure the group 1 record is ‘on the line’ really is it?
He’s all but assured the record now and I believe Paddies are paying out already.
I’m with Jac here in support of Magic Lily in the hope Godolphin can get back on track in this race after three consecutive Ballydoyle winners.
She seemed very sensible on her first run. I thought she was set to win by a couple of lengths then very late on she seemed to twig what racing was all about and pulled clear for fun to win by 8. Looks to me to have a slightly high action but that win was on good.
Doyle said the victory surprised as she hadn’t shown anything like that at home. Well, I’d sooner have it that way round than the other. I’ve had a small bet for The Oaks too: if it was on breeding they’d probably give her the trophy now being by a Derby winner (New Approach) out of Dancing Rain, the 2011 Oaks winner. Having said that, you need to look a long way back for the last Godolphin Oaks winner.
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