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From my blog on Nov 14
When I tweeted this advice earlier in the week, I got one response: "you’re drunk".
Many reading this might share that sentiment because Purple Bay’s profile is far removed from that of a typical champion hurdler these days. Musselburgh, Stratford, and Taunton have been his stamping grounds rather than Cheltenham, Sandown and Newbury.
He’s not trained by Nicholls or Henderson, but by John Ferguson. The jock who’s had most success on him is a 7lb claimer. But the manner of his victory in the Elite Hurdle last Saturday bore the stamp of a fast-improving horse, for whom a solid plan has been laid out.
Irving’s last flight fall in the race seems to have diverted attention from Purple Bay’s performance. He was first to come under pressure when hitting a flat spot turning into the straight, but when he got back on the bridle, he came away from his pursuers with ease and won with some authority, ears pricked and it took Mikey Ennis a while to pull up.
That was his first run since finishing 7 of 20 in the Galway Hurdle, a race which came within 12 days of his easy Market Rasen victory. I suspect his runs will be a bit more spaced out from now. He has an entry in the Fighting Fifth on November 29th.
At this time last year, Purple Bay had an official rating of 130. It’s now 161. The current champion hurdler Jezki is rated 169. At the front of the festival market are Jezki, Faugheen and The New One, a horse I’ve always liked but one I now believe is just lacking that killer touch.
I’m not saying Purple Bay will win the Champion, but 50s is way too big in my opinion. The experts believe the horse has quirks; other than the habit of hitting a flat spot, (and he seems to run around a bit approaching some flights) I’ve seen nothing to worry me enough not to back him at that price. He’s just 5 and will still be learning. He wouldn’t want to hit that flat spot at a critical stage in a Champion Hurdle, but the hill should be a significant advantage to his racing style.
If he turns up at Newcastle, we’ll learn an awful lot more about him. For now, I’m content to take the chance.
Win or each way?
The new Haydock race has done for the Fighting Fifth the same way the Betfair Chase has done for the Hennessy in terms of top class quality.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"After all that, the situation is resolved with Purple Bay out of the race now, along with Sign Of A Victory, leaving a penalty kick for Irving at 4/5 in a 6 runner affair.
A very disappointing field and a non-event as a trial that is likely to provide a serious contender for Cheltenham. It’s pretty sure that the amount of dung in the boxes of Faugheen, The New One and Jezki on Saturday evening is highly unlikely to exceed the usual amount.
A terrible turnout for a race that used to be something to look forward to.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Is there still a bonus for a horse to win the Fighting Fifth, Christmas Hurdle and Champion Hurdle?
Purple bay and Sign of victory both out,weakens the field dramatically.
PB out…my lousiest start to a season for many years continues. Having taken the 8s EW, I waited until he was jocked up (Brian Hughes 3rd in the Newcastle jockey table) and went in again at 8s.
I see BH now rides Sea Lord.
Ouch!
Purple bay and Sign of victory both out,weakens the field dramatically.
PB out…my lousiest start to a season for many years continues. Having taken the 8s EW, I waited until he was jocked up (Brian Hughes 3rd in the Newcastle jockey table) and went in again at 8s.
I see BH now rides Sea Lord.
Ouch!
Commiserations steeplechasing, I never bet ante post anymore but if I did, I would never bet one each way without inside info, especially with only 2 places on offer.
Why lose twice your stake if one doesn’t run?Ahh, I shouldn’t be moaning, yeats. I’ve been taking the good with the bad for decades (most of my betting is AP). I bet PB first on the basis of 1,2,3 EW in an 8-runner field, and I’m fairly confident I’d have been paid on those terms, so in principle, it was a sound and high value bet – the type I try to look for.
I’d have gone in harder, but waited to see if he’d be jocked up, a very strong sign, I think you’ll agree, that he’s a planned runner (especially when his stablemate was not jocked up) Anyway, I chose to go in again then, and the only thing that would have sounded warning bells was if he’d been 8s across the board. But Hills, who, these days, have about the best contacts in the business, were going 4s.
I should have taken it on the chin without posting that earlier. Swings and roundabouts. Mea culpa.
Surely Irving must be considered a good thing at 5/4 for this with the absentees now?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Surely Irving must be considered a good thing at 5/4 for this with the absentees now?
Too prone to tripping over his legs…an equine Ted McMinn
Stats are strongly against Irving, but Dicheat would surely be dissappointed if he couldn’t win this.
I do like trends, and the fall LTO is a big negative, but all in all I would agree with Steve, odds against looks generous.
I wanted to have Irving last time but first time out put me off but he ran well enough and Nicholls’s horses having been coming on for the run so the odds against looks fair gain. Schofield said they were hugely disappointed with the way he ran at Cheltenham and you get the impression they think a lot of this horse.
5/4 bog
I’m in….
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Surely Irving must be considered a good thing at 5/4 for this with the absentees now?
Too prone to tripping over his legs…an equine Ted McMinn
Irving will hopefully be like this example, where the Tin Man managed to get his legs working in perfect cohesion:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tqw3mn6YIbY
Mind you there were probably many more occasions where he fell flat on his paps.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bad defending that.
Is he Arsenal’s defensive coach by chance?
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
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