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I’m just thinking about this. I reckon arctic fire ran to within 5 pounds of his best today. That would put that run at 164, which is perfectly acceptable i believe and Danny Mullins rode him flat out all the way to the line. Faugheen won by 15 lengths eased down on the bridle. That’s worth at least a 17 length win in my opinion making that Faugheen performance at 181 performance. Best we have ever seen. I don’t believe night nurse was the best for the simple reason that its freakish to suggest that the two highest timeform rated hurdlers of all time were in the 1970’s at the same time, running against each other. It just shows that They got a bit carried away with ratings. Similar to arkle and flyingbolt, it’s too freakish to suggest that the two highest rated chasers of all time are 20 lbs better than any other horse and both happened to come along at the same time.
I think we are watching the best hurdler ever and if he can stay sound I believe he can smash all records.I certainly can’t remember a hurdler, even Istabraq, being as dominant; tho I think Bula was unbeaten until after his 2nd Champion Hurdle.
These are my speed figures for Faugheen’s last 6 runs, which are streets ahead of the 106 figure The New One earned at Haydock on Saturday.
Faugheen (IRE)
24Jan16 Leo 16Sft HG1 48K 147
26Dec15 Kem 16GS C1HG1 56K 132
15Nov15 Pun 16Sft HG1 39K 127
01May15 Pun 16Gd/Y HG1 93K 138
10Mar15 Chl 16.5GS C1HG1 227K 140
26Dec14 Kem 16GS C1HG1 57K 141Mike.
Mike how would the speed figures translate into an official rating? His speed yesterday was 6 higher than ever before, does that mean he ran 6lbs better than ever? If so it seems I’m fairly accurate in judging that as a 181 performance as his current rating is 174.
Mike how would the speed figures translate into an official rating? His speed yesterday was 6 higher than ever before, does that mean he ran 6lbs better than ever? If so it seems I’m fairly accurate in judging that as a 181 performance as his current rating is 174.
I take no notice of official ratings as my speed figures are unique to me.
I once worked out using my scale, that the highest possible speed figure a national hunt horse could achieve over fences was a figure of 160, and on the flat the figure is 130.
I rather work to class and pace instead off looking at a horses official ratings, would The New One be able to lie up with the pace and class of Faugheen, we all know the answer to that “NO”.
The official handicapper has been giving handicap marks of 130+ to the juvenile hurdlers, on my figures, this season crop are the weakest I have ever seen.
Then in the end, it is all about opinions…
Mike.
Istabraq is and was much overrrated imo, and wouldn’t be within a stone of Faugheen
cant have him as over rated – 175 ish he hovered around for for several years, beating good horses such as Hors La Loi / Limestone Lad / French Holly etc
perhaps over glorified esp in Ireland, with story of initial trainer dying / the irish banker in 1997 novice hurdle and subsequent Champion Hurdles / JP / Aiden Obrien etc
I certainly don’t think his rating is over inflated if look at his form and how easy he won races
I think his rating of 176 at its peak was fair but Faugheen is better than that rating now. Perhaps in Ireland we got carried away with the likes of him and danoli due to having far less horses to win a grade one in Britain
Limestone Lad was good, but his trip was 20f+, not 16f. Hors La Loi won his Champion Hurdle off 153 and didn’t win again after that.
French Holly might well have been the best horse Istabraq met at 2 miles, but even his form, in hindsight, didn’t bear close inspection.
Istabraq was hugely consistent and lovely to watch, but he had the good fortune to be around at the same time as a very poor bunch of two-mile hurdlers.
He has many fans, and I mean no offence. I just didn’t get it when he was around, and still don’t now.
RPR gave Faugheen a rating of 176 for yesterdays run, using my RPR to BHA conversion table, he ran to a BHA mark of 164.
Conversion table calculated from a database of 33,000+ races using SPSS.
RPR Conv:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=dec5a240-b79a-28ad-906f-137f3092c597Mike.
I think the Irish handicapper is very much underrating that performance. In order to be in keeping with handicap marks Faugheen would need to best arctic fire by 9 lengths. He won by 15, therefore in terms of handicaps Faugheen won by 6 lengths. Any other horse that wins a handicap by 6 lengths would be put up far more than 2lbs
Limestone Lad was good, but his trip was 20f+, not 16f. Hors La Loi won his Champion Hurdle off 153 and didn’t win again after that.
French Holly might well have been the best horse Istabraq met at 2 miles, but even his form, in hindsight, didn’t bear close inspection.
Istabraq was hugely consistent and lovely to watch, but he had the good fortune to be around at the same time as a very poor bunch of two-mile hurdlers.
He has many fans, and I mean no offence. I just didn’t get it when he was around, and still don’t now.
In the same camp as you on this – I don’t think he would have cut any ice against the likes of a Night Nurse, Monksfield, Sea Pigeon (criminally under rated imho but I am rather biased as he is my favourite NH horse of all time), Bula and Persian War.
Whilst I don’t think you will ever get an age where horses of that calibre all come along at the same time again, Faugheen would appear to be head and shoulders above his current rivals in the same way Istabraq was for his 3 wins, with the exception that most of Faugheen’s rivals are multiple G1 winners in their own right.
To me he has the scope for even further improvement and given the right set of circumstances, he could even challenge or surpass Timeform’s highest rated hurdler rating of 182 for Night Nurse.
RPR gave Faugheen a rating of 176 for yesterdays run, using my RPR to BHA conversion table, he ran to a BHA mark of 164.
Conversion table calculated from a database of 33,000+ races using SPSS.
RPR Conv:
https://web.cloud.virginmedia.com/?shareObject=dec5a240-b79a-28ad-906f-137f3092c597
Mike.
Faugheen gone up 2lb to 176
http://www.goracing.ie/HRI/Racing-Statistics/NH-Ratings/?type=nh<r=F
Yet arctic fire is left at 166? If Faugheen were a handicapper a 2lb rise for beating a 166 horse by 15 lengths when ratings only entitle him to win by 8 would be considered a very lenient rise.
Yet arctic fire is left at 166? If Faugheen were a handicapper a 2lb rise for beating a 166 horse by 15 lengths when ratings only entitle him to win by 8 would be considered a very lenient rise.
Thats true, it seems at the top end he has taken a careful view.
Yet arctic fire is left at 166? If Faugheen were a handicapper a 2lb rise for beating a 166 horse by 15 lengths when ratings only entitle him to win by 8 would be considered a very lenient rise.
All depends if that “166 horse” ran to form TWM.
Probably Faugheen’s best performance, but it’s quite right that the handicapper is cautious.
Yes, he was taking on the Champion Hurdle second and third favouroites; but both second and third in all probability did not run to form. Nichols Canyon is probably best from the front and unable to get/not allowed the lead. Had a hard race last time out, in heavy ground against Identity Thief. Jumped badly two out and palpably a long way below form. Arctic Fire had been below form last time, more to it than just not staying the trip. Apparently returning with a breathing problem that day, so came in to this with questions to answer. Cheltenham also remains where Arctic Fire has put up his best performance(s) of the year and Cheltenham/Spring may always bring out the best in him. Even though he’s a terrific horse, to give Faugheen credit for the full 15 lengths and 13 win would be crazy imo.
Value Is Everything
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