- This topic has 30 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 17 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Echo the sentiments in this thread so far, Denis – a most enjoyable read.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Congratulations Denis, havent read the weekender in a while but may have to check it out. Well done.
Thanks for all the kind words.
One tip for any that follow me: Do not emulate me by mentioning the ex-girlfriend and failing to mention the wife- on rations for a month
Thanks for all the kind words.
One tip for any that follow me: Do not emulate me by mentioning the ex-girlfriend and failing to mention the wife- on rations for a month
You never – what were you thinking Carvills? (so much better than Denis 
)As everyone has already said, it was a gread read and congratulations on your first tip. Hope it leads to bigger and better things.
And don’t worry about the wife, she will forgive you in time – probably around Christmas and her birthday if my past experiences are anything to go by
Mike
- Total Posts 17716
Nice article Carv, and a good winner.
All this, and something to frighten the kids; all for £2.30.
Nice article and some sound ‘golden rules’
If you don’t mind me asking:
You state you’ve been profitable for 15 years. Is this overall ‘long term’ profit despite some losing years, or has each and every year turned a profit?
Personally, during the ’90s I had four winning years and six losers. There was an overall (small) gross profit but betting tax more than wiped it out.
Since betting tax free (or virtually so) this century I’ve had seven (assuming 2008 doesn’t go tits up) winning years and two losers resulting in an overall net-of-commission profit of around 8%
The two losing years would have been profitable, had I not bet the Flat – lesson learnt
A run of 15 successive winning years would IMO be proof enough that you have a statistically sound edge
For my part, I’m yet to be convinced that the nine-year ‘long term’ profit I’m showing isn’t anything more than the ‘lucky run’ in a ‘random’ sequence, given my fluctuating annual results, rather than a concrete ‘edge’ however that might be defined
I’ve had one losing year in the last 7, thanks mainly to dabbling in financial betting and can’t remember another one after the mid-nineties but haven’t got records to hand of those years (at work now). No coincidence that this exactly coincides with when I started working for myself- I am certain I coudn’t win if I had a "real" job- as it is I can suit myself when taking time to indulge my passion- the year’s profits can come down to the day I popped up to Ladbrokes to take the 16/1 about Rainbow Rising or the morning spent hitting the phones getting what I could on Pipedreamer, something a person working couldn’t do without getting the sack.
Personally I consider profit over a year to be ample proof of an edge, given that hundreds of bets are involved.
I think it’s a bit different to assessing true profitability in a financial market trading situation, because in that case more of the "bank" or "account" may be at risk in any one trade and as Naseem Taleb points out profits may be illusory as there may be a risk of "blowing up". A sensibly staking punter can’t "blow up" and is therefore easier to assess as profitable after a series of good years. The chances of you being profitable over 9 years through chance are very small IMO.I’ve had one losing year in the last 7, thanks mainly to dabbling in financial betting .
Don’t be greedy by adding unnecessary ‘noise’ to a succesful portfolio perhaps
No coincidence that this exactly coincides with when I started working for myself- I am certain I coudn’t win if I had a "real" job- as it is I can suit myself when taking time to indulge my passion- the year’s profits can come down to the day I popped up to Ladbrokes to take the 16/1 about Rainbow Rising or the morning spent hitting the phones getting what I could on Pipedreamer, something a person working couldn’t do without getting the sack.
Very true, having both sufficient time to research strategies, find the bets and the choice of indulging whenever you want without distraction are a great boon. Unlike a "real job" I’m careful to treat punting as a relaxing hobby, with no compulsion to bet if I don’t feel like it, or conversely when I’m into full swing through the winter content to give it undivided attention.
Heartening stuff about the rigour of the "sensibly staking punters" edge, hope you’re right
Level stakes, or thereabouts
An additonal mention for you today CH, referencing your Faith and Reason tip from last week, plus mentioning your other 2 tips were rained off.
I would say you compared well with this week’s punter who picked Mark Winstanley as his favourite tipster
Quote – "And don’t worry about the wife, she will forgive you in time – probably around Christmas and her birthday if my past experiences are anything to go by"
I wouldn’t bank on it CH!
I would say you compared well with this week’s punter who picked Mark Winstanley as his favourite tipster
Maybe he’s a layer!
As dry and sarcastic as some Scottish folk can be, unfortunately I think he was serious!
Only got to see it today (major distribution issues for the Weeekender over here). And you people thought my photo was bad- looks like a prison mugshot! Add his bigging-up of Couch (another classic today about the stiff finish at the Curragh (?)) and I reckon I’m a length or two up…..
You never – what were you thinking Carvills? (so much better than Denis 
)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.