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Apple’s Jade was much better today but she didn’t win because of any fitness advantage or step up in trip. She won primarily because of a very poor ride from Walsh on the favourite. I can only assume the way she was ridden that connections were not overly bothered about losing today. She was always in a poor position in a slowly run race. Yes, she has a change of pace but she is essentially a stayer. She was asked to quicken twice and it was no surprise that she couldn’t sustain the run.
Vroum Vroum ridden in a very similar way to at Cheltenham, Stilvi. Recent form seems to suggest she only front runs when racing at 2m. Usually mid-div or held up when racing over this trip or further, making use of a fine turn of foot. Maybe she’ll come on for the run, but it was a Grade 1 and Mullins/Walsh were definitely “bothered about losing today”. Though seems to me VVM’s odds over-estimated her chance and Apples Jade’s under-estimated hers -particulrly so when there wasn’t much obvious pace in the race. AJ always races prominently, that and step up in trip likely to help the Gigginstown mare.
The Cheltenham race and today’s race were effectively chalk and cheese. At the Festival I think she beat a horse rated in the 130’s. A Festival cakewalk. Today, she was first time out in a much better race. Surely a rider should be able to adapt to the race in front of him? As you said it is not as if she couldn’t make the running. As I said before it was a slowly run race and consequently it would be very difficult to suggest with any certainty that the trip was the reason for Apple’s Jade’s improved performance. She jumped much better today and that had nothing to do with the trip. As regards the odds I was a little concerned the favourite wasn’t around 2/5. She had set up a largely untroubled sequence whereas Apple’s Jade had two significantly below par runs, the last of which looked a hard race only eight days ago. Had she blown out completely everyone would have been saying that’s perfectly understandable and she should have been given a break.
Whatever you think of Walsh, he’s a superb jockey. There’s no saying how much energy is ultimately saved by lobbing along in such relaxed fashion. It could easily be a much more efficient way of racing than being up there forcing the pace.
Everyone makes mistakes. The problem with sitting in behind in slowly run race is the difficulty of making up ground into a quickening pace. The rivals sitting in front of him in the early stages were not using up significant extra energy.
HI GUYS DOES ANYBODY KNOW IF JOSEPH OBRIEN NOW HAS BHUTAN IN HIS STABLE. AS BEEN LOOKING AT TRIUMPH BETTING AND DID NOT NOTICE HIM IN THE BETTING.
I ASK BECAUSE ALTHOUGH I HAVE A FEW BETS ON LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY AT A COUPLE OF NICE PRICES FOR IT. I BACKED BHUTAN ANTE POST FOR THE ST LEGER. IF HE IS GOING HURDLING I WOULD HAVE A FEW QUID ON AT 25/1 AS WAS IMPRESSED WITH HIS MAIDEN WINTHATS GREAT THANKS BOBBY. I WILL TAKE A CHANCE AND BACK HIM FOR TRIUMPH AS LOST MY DOUGH FOR THE LEGER. ONLY TROUBLE MIGHT NEED SOFT GROUND ON LOOKING AT HIS MAIDEN WIN. TO BE OFF THIS LONG MUST HAVE HAD A PROBLEM OR 2
The Cheltenham race and today’s race were effectively chalk and cheese. At the Festival I think she beat a horse rated in the 130’s. A Festival cakewalk. Today, she was first time out in a much better race. Surely a rider should be able to adapt to the race in front of him? As you said it is not as if she couldn’t make the running. As I said before it was a slowly run race and consequently it would be very difficult to suggest with any certainty that the trip was the reason for Apple’s Jade’s improved performance. She jumped much better today and that had nothing to do with the trip. As regards the odds I was a little concerned the favourite wasn’t around 2/5. She had set up a largely untroubled sequence whereas Apple’s Jade had two significantly below par runs, the last of which looked a hard race only eight days ago. Had she blown out completely everyone would have been saying that’s perfectly understandable and she should have been given a break.
If asking Vroum Vroum to make the running today, Ruby would’ve been asking her to do something she’s never done before. Horses can front run at 2m where as doing so at 2m4f – particularly when possibly a bit fresh on reappearance – could have negative results. Walsh could’ve raced with a view of the front, been too keen – lost because of it – and people would’ve criticised him for it. Played the percentages and it didn’t work out for him. Running up a sequence in mostly uncompetitive races means absolutely nothing, only races where she’s shown how good she is actually matter. How much is there between VVM and AJ? Answer – not a lot.
Novice form is often over-estimated. When taking in to account being hampered at Newcastle Apple’s Jade wasn’t far behind her best. Without losing momentum imo would’ve won by a couple of lengths. Irving is a pretty good horse on his day (early season) too. It wouldn’t have been surprising had she been below form after just 8 days off; but also not surprising she wasn’t troubled by it either. AJ ran at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown and – unlike most who try it – as good in the latter Festival as the second – ie thrives on racing.
AJ probably didn’t need to improve much – if anything – to win today.
Value Is EverythingElliot said she had put on weight after Newcastle. Cooper said he rode her on Wednesday and she was ‘bouncing’. A large part of her SP today would have been down to that ‘just slow’ comment by GE after her first run: that combined with VVM’s unbeaten run; a misleading record to some extent which features three SPs of 1/4 and one at 1/16. Since moving to Mullins she has never started odds against.
Elliott says there is just one plan now, the OLBG Mares Final for which AJ was cut to 2/1.
IT SHOULD BE CALLED THE IRISH MARES HURDLE AT CHELTENHAM. BUT WOULD STILL BE VVM IF ANNIE DONT RUN
The Cheltenham race and today’s race were effectively chalk and cheese. At the Festival I think she beat a horse rated in the 130’s. A Festival cakewalk. Today, she was first time out in a much better race. Surely a rider should be able to adapt to the race in front of him? As you said it is not as if she couldn’t make the running. As I said before it was a slowly run race and consequently it would be very difficult to suggest with any certainty that the trip was the reason for Apple’s Jade’s improved performance. She jumped much better today and that had nothing to do with the trip. As regards the odds I was a little concerned the favourite wasn’t around 2/5. She had set up a largely untroubled sequence whereas Apple’s Jade had two significantly below par runs, the last of which looked a hard race only eight days ago. Had she blown out completely everyone would have been saying that’s perfectly understandable and she should have been given a break.
If asking Vroum Vroum to make the running today, Ruby would’ve been asking her to do something she’s never done before. Horses can front run at 2m where as doing so at 2m4f – particularly when possibly a bit fresh on reappearance – could have negative results. Walsh could’ve raced with a view of the front, been too keen – lost because of it – and people would’ve criticised him for it. Played the percentages and it didn’t work out for him. Running up a sequence in mostly uncompetitive races means absolutely nothing, only races where she’s shown how good she is actually matter. How much is there between VVM and AJ? Answer – not a lot.
I am surprised at you arguing this Ginger as you know only too well the front end is the place to be in a slowly run race. The simple fact is he didn’t win today. I think he would have won had he ridden her closer to the pace. She isn’t a horse that has any history of pulling too hard so there really isn’t anything to support the idea that racing more prominently would have ruined her chances. If she had raced too freely on the front end then surely Walsh could have just reined her back into second or third. Having ridden Apple’s Jade this season perhaps he was also caught out by her improved performance?
Front end IS the place to be in a slowly run race, Stilvi; as long as the horse settles and is suited by stamina. If a horse is unsettled on the front end then reining it bback doesn’t always work. The evidence to support a possibility (and it’s no more than that) of being too free if allowed a view of the front – is the way she’s been ridden before. Prominent at 2m, mid-div or held up over further… And a chance of being fresh on reappearance. As she always travels well through races, there’s not much between travelling well and a bit too free… Then there’s the fact how she’s raced in the past has always been good enough, horses and jockeys are creatures of habit. VVM was unbeaten, had he done something he’d never done before and then got beat – something would’ve been said. At 2m4f+ it’s in Ruby’s best interests to have a fairly slowly run race anyway, as VVM has a turn of foot superior to her rivals. Had he gone up to race prominently it would’ve encouraged others to go faster – possibly in to a truly run race. Too much has been made of her winning at (almost) 3m. Just because she’s won her only start at that distance doesn’t mean she truly stays 3m. Priced 4/6 and beat handicappers – placed horses at odds of 33/1, 40/1 and 25/1. VVM Not needing to show anything like her best. Make no mistake her asset is speed when racing around 2m4f.
Not saying any of this would’ve happened, just I can see why Ruby/connections decided to hold VVM up.
Value Is EverythingGETABIRD WAS VERY IMPRESSIVE IN THE LAST
Wow, i know it was just a bumper but that horse has a very big future ahead.
From Simon Rowlands’ sectional analysis:
But there looked to be an unlucky loser of the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle, which turned into something of a sprint, and in which Apple’s Jade was better placed than Vroum Vroum Mag when it mattered.
The latter was held up going well for a long way before joining issue at the last but lost out on the nod. With such a narrow margin at play sectionals suggest the result would have gone the other way had Vroum Vroum Mag not had to do so much running to join issue with a rival who was quickening at the time.
Cheers DB, Botchy, at the time I thought he’d have got caught anyway. I’ve bet the winner a couple of times before, and he would have been hard to shake off, but just in from work and watched it again. I’m now not so sure, and I think he may just have held on, he certainly lost all momentum when he clouted that second last, but hey, jumpings the name of the game, and he’s fallen the last twice. A winner waiting to happen though for sure, which is what I expected at the start of the season.
Over the shorter trip he might be one for The Paddy Power at Leapordstown over Christmas, or even back here in the spring, I’ll persevere with him definitely.
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