Exacta/Straight Forecasts: Live odds via the internet

[slipperytoad]

I’m delving into the world of Exactas/CSF’s and wish to benchmark my assessment of fair odds against the market.

Understand that you can (pre-race) observe the exacta payoff for each combination on the tote (plus tote pool via the internet) or in a betting shop, but wondered which bookmarkers offer a similar feature via their internet web sites.

Thanks in advance.

[davidbrady]

As far as I am aware, it’s nigh next to impossible to even get the formula which the bookmkers use to calculate the CSF, let alone see live shows.

Doesn’t the formula contain some form of restriction so as to ensure that no "unfairly" high dividends are paid out!

I could be totally wrong here though.

[quadrilla]

The difficulty is selecting the runners. I use combinations.

You are never too far away by just multipling the odds. There is, I understand, a special rule in regards to beaten favarourites tho’. And the TOTE, I think, pays more than the bookies. With Betfair you trade the price.

Backing two runners is the relentless pursuit of value. Backing each way is a shortcut to the poor house. Only 7% make a long term profit.

[rory]

Basic SFC divi formula is price of winner times basic factor of runner up (price plus one or betfair style price if you like), depending on other factors such as draw biases and overround per runner. In a ten runner race if a 4/1 shot beats a 7/1 shot and the overround is normal, then the SFC should pay roughly £32. That used to be a decent rule of thumb pre the abolition of betting tax and the returns should now be 9% higher in theory but changes to the formula mean that isn’t true across the board. I’d call the above FC at £35 today. You will find that having big outsiders second to short price favs will pay much more than the calculation, but more obvious combinations will be tighter.

Calculating exacta returns based on Tote shows is a total waste of time, as most of the money arrives late and skews the figures.

[Author]

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