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Happy new year to everyone, wishing you all the best with your investing this year don’t call it gambling
these are the rules for everyoneinform
go to cards on the racing post website,open the first race,underneath the betting forecast open stats
1 look for trainers with 20% or more strike rate, must have had two or more winners
2 check their horses they must have placed 1st or 2nd in their last two races and they must be in the current season
3 if any horses qualify look at jockeys they must be 20% or over,and have two or more winners
4 discount races with odds on favten pound stakes on all horses for trial
sorry missed a rule
5 if more than one horse qualifies go with shortest in the betting
just wanted to say with the bigger meetings and better horses there will be more qualifiers,and i will be breaking the sysyem down into three price brackets one a weekChel 12-30 Master Of The Game 11-4
Chel 1-05 Sonofvic 5-4
Chel 2-10 Havigotascoobydo 13-2
Muss 2-25 Rumble Of Thunder 7-1
Chel 2-45 Oscargo evens
Exet 2-55 Golden Chieftain 7-4
Chel 3-50 Call Back 14-1also we always take prices with best odds guaranteed
Interesting idea,the bit I like is that they are not all short prices will watch and leard
good luck with this
I hope this goes well
Ultraman
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Have you run it prior to posting it here?
I am not sure if this will help but it never hurts to mention things.
Mark aka Rainy Claifornia well known for a long running system via the former Massey forum would proof his selections with what he called an upward curve principle.
The latest 3 RPR ratings should show an upward curve i.e. each of the 3 form figs. should be greater, such as 99 103 115.
He said it never prevented him backing a selection but an upward curve gave him more confidence.
Although I have never enjoyed "Laying" he said a downward curve was also useful confidence tool.
Billy's Outback Shack
thanks for the input billion i’ll keep that in mind
as for the system i did try it last month,it finished 134 infront mind you that was only because celestial halo came in 14-1 yesterdayI guess it never matters when or how, just as long as they do (win).
Billy's Outback Shack
not a good start 3 fallers 3 threw any chance away with jumping mistakes, but jumpings the name of the game so 0-7
(-70-00)just found a new rule new flat season from yesterday with a/w it makes no difference,as long as they have had a run in the last month it’s good to go
Ayr 12-55 Amron Lad 5-2
Plum 2-15 Terra Bleu 5-2
Ayr 3-00 Nowurhurlin 5-1
Ayr 3-35 Realignment 5-2
Plum 3-50 Drawn Free 6-4here we go lol 0-5
total (-120-00)wish i’d done this with points 12 dos’nt look as bad,anway time on my hands onwards and upwardsAyr 2-40 Artic Night 6-5
Ultraman,
Not sure I understand.
Are you trying to find trainers and jockeys in form at that particular time? Is the 20% over a 2 week period?Or are you trying to find trainers and jockeys with an exceptional 20% annual strike rate?
I am interested in the former. Trainers in form in the two to three week period preceding the run.
As part of my value evaluation I look at trainers in form. These are my thoughts on the subject.
Trainers In Form:
One win does not make an “in form trainer”. It is one of the most overly/wrongly used sayings in racing circles. I Don’t judge purely on winners either, rather let price be a guide. Any 33/1 shot who’s placed has obviously run very well, not so an odds-on second. Sometimes a trainer is “in form” without it showing up in the wins column. Find it best not to have a set amount of days to go back, when stables have a lot of runners (Hannon, Channon etc) it is only necessary to go back a few days (if that). For a trainer without many runners, the full three week record may be needed.
Looking at the sportinglife.com website’s racecard, my first job is to rate every horse for what sort of form each trainer is in. Clicking on every name to give a three week history the stable has had. With too many numbers on my paper; instead of rating them 1 to 9 it’s: *** unbelievable form, through ** brilliant, * excellent, */ good, // average, /’ question marks but probably average, / just about ok form, /- below form (saver only bet if anything at all), x poor form, “don’t touch it”. Most will be between * and /-. Some, like *** appear rarely, only if the trainer has won his last four or five starts at reasonable prices; “x” would be a trainer on a long run of losers and no placed runners. Any race could have many in-form horses or very few. Seldom make an out of form trainer the main bet, just a saver bet instead, although I find they’re rarely value bets anyway.
Few horses return to form when their trainer is out of form. Where as one who’s trainer was out of form last time it ran (running poorly) – that is now in good form – can help pinpoint a big priced winner. Or, a horse whos trainer was in good form last time it ran (a month ago or so ago) may not run well this time around. Also, a trainer who had an unusually poor season (probably due to a virus) last term, could end up with well handicapped horses this time around. Might be worth keeping an eye on a trainer who has been out of form so far this season, if and when he/she shows signs of a return to form. For example right now Vennitia Williams could have a few well handicapped individuals.Don’t know if any of the above is of use to you Ultraman in this or any other system. Often wondered if any system could be devised to look at trainers in form.
Value Is EverythingI would imagine finding a winning system based on recent wins (in this instance trainer wins/form) would be difficult as that kind of thing is usually the first thing the market accounts for. I tried desperately to get recent form/recent finishing position/recent trainer form etc etc into my model and everytime I came up with a different way it sucked all profit/value from the results (tried to start a thread to see how successfuly that model can be in ‘My Punting Year 2012’).
Ginger’s points on form not necessarily being dependent on winners is excellent and should be noted – taking note of performance in relation to SP or form rating is important. You could try using impact values based on SP. i.e. you would expect a trainer running 10 horses all 4/1 (20%) shots to have 10*0.2 = 2 winners…. whereas a trainer running 10 even money (50%)shots to have had 5 winners. The problem with looking at recent form from a statistical point of view is the small sample sizes.
I have always found overall trainer records (with larger datasets) much more significant and useful.
another nr today
Gingertipster looking at the racing post stats for the last 14 days,not anual % i know starting with must 2 winners and 20% might not be ideal,i did think about must have had 2 from at least 10 runners,but ive got to start somewere,so i’ll stick to the former for this month, thanks for the input anyway,and yours paco boy
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