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Ok my opening post is going to be the preview I wrote up on the evening after the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I’ll post my updates to the thread (only 8 ) and then we can take it from there. No after-timing, everything there for people to see on the blog in my sig.
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The Oaks has become one of my favourite ante-post races to look at in recent years. Despite not having had the winner since Alexandrova, my early looks have thrown up plenty of future winners for the season and a host of horses that turned up at Epsom at infinitely shorter prices. I should have had Sariska as a big winner but threw her out on account of her breeding…
The 2-year-old trends are rather strong and they manage actually to eliminate a fair chunk of runners. There are only 2 and they’re both very simple; eliminate anything that didn’t finish in the top 2 as a juvenile and anything that failed to get a RPR of 79+. I think the explanation and justification between both is rather simple.
I’ll now chuck a grenade in; eliminate all Montjeu and Galileo progeny. Montjeu’s success rate with his fillies is around the 3% mark. They don’t win. They’re just so highly strung and if one of them wins, it’s likely they won’t be winning again. And good Galileo fillies are just so thin on the ground. My friend’s theory on that is that all the good ones go to the breeding shed and I can’t really say I disagree. They very rarely turn up at Epsom and the colts generally do poorly in the male equivalent (which will annoy a lot of New Approach fans). 7 of his fillies have run in the Oaks without so much as a place. Lush Lashes is generally regarded as his best mare and she managed no better than 5th when she didn’t stay. 5 of the other 6 finished in the last 4 places.
Danehill Dancer’s the other interesting sire right now. His stock has just gone up and up over the past few seasons and since his sire, Danehill, is no longer with us, breeders are trying to breed some middle-distance runners from him which as of yet hasn’t worked, at least at the top level, but soon enough he’ll produce a few good 12f horses, but until that happens, all his progeny are off the list (this isn’t the greatest bit of PR for Coolmore stud).
So using the 2 trends and eliminating the 3 Coolmore stallions (and whilst being a bit generous with the RPR trend), you can get the Oaks entries down from 7 pages to a little over 3. Now to be a bit more creative; Halling is not a Group 1 stallion. He may have picked up a couple of silly Group 1s over in France with Andre Fabre over the past 2 seasons but those were his first Group 1 wins in a stud career spanning 13 years. His runners just lack that spark of quality. It’s also hard to take horses sired by sprinters such as Acclamation, Diktat and Iffraaj seriously. For all you Havant supporters who’ve had your horse inexplicably eliminated, she’s also a May 3rd foal which means it’s 99% certain she won’t have developed enough by the start of June. Rainbow View was a late May foal, Petrushka too, and several others have been hindered by their late foal date in both Classics at Epsom.
And now just 2 1/2 pages. Cochabamba looks fairly exposed (cue another Snow Fairy…) and is held by others so we can eliminate her, while Encore Une Annee took 3 attempts to break her maiden and did it at Southwell while recording a RPR of 78. She looks far from good enough. Eva’s Time was beaten by a filly of Jim Bolger’s on her 2nd start and that horse is entered for a handicap tomorrow, so you’d have to think she won’t be good enough. Fork Handles is well held by White Moonstone and again looks fairly exposed, but Hawaafez is a potentially interesting one. Her RPR falls well short on just 75 and the breeding’s nothing exciting, but could just be a live contender.
Khawlah’s currently in Dubai but looks an interesting contender and apparently goes to the Musidora next. Izzi Top looks even more interesting. 2nd on her sole start with a RPR of 81, practically the perfect profile for an Oaks winner, she’s by Pivotal a la Sariska and is a half-sister to a 103RPR rated handicapper called Rock N Roll Ransom. Absolutely one to keep an eye on.
Kirinda could provide another contender for John Oxx, but Laughing Lashes will surely lack stamina for 12 furlongs. Masaya looks exposed and is trained by an idiot. Midnight Caller looks like one of Gosden’s leading fillies but ran too bad to be true at Doncaster. Apparently unsuited by the good ground that day, she’s unlikely to get it soft at Epsom. She stays on the list but won’t be backing her.
Mohedian Lady’s managed to regress on RPRs in her 3 starts as a 2yo and has been switched from Bell to Cumani over the winter. The RP quotes have Bell as having said that she’ll stay 12 furlongs and they’ll try her in an Oaks trial. Not the most bullish I’ve ever heard him, but all 3 runs were good ‘uns and stays on the list.
Behind her on that 3rd run was Moonsail getting what is surely her preferred soft ground being by Monsun. She was beaten 2 1/2L that day on her 2nd start and will surely not be able to bridge that gap. Morning Charm absolutely must stay on the list being by North Light and being a half-sister to Lucarno. Again, a practically perfect Oaks profile. 1 run, 1 win, RPR of 80.
Pink Diva ran in 2 mickey mouse maidens at Newcastle and Pontefract and won’t be good enough, while Polygon’s yet another interesting John Gosden contender. Just a short-head between her and Mohedian Lady on her sole run. She finished 3rd and recorded a RPR78 which breaks both trends, but I’m happy to overlook a short-head and a single point.
Primevere’s a stand-out contender with that profile and Rainbow Springs is another interesting one having finished 2nd to Frankel and 3rd in the Marcel-Boussac. She’s however by Selkirk, and for some strange reason, his 3 runners in the Oaks have finished last, last and second last. Coincidence? His 2 Derby runners finished 3rd and 11th. She can stay on the list but that does worry me.
Rumh was beaten easily in 2 summer maidens before winning on the sand. She looks far from good enough. Secret Love finished slightly behind Mohedian Lady with a bit of extra experience and just doesn’t look good enough. Show Rainbow’s had 4 starts and is only rated 76RPR. Bye bye.
Sunset Avenue, White Moonstone, Wonder of Wonders and Zoowraa are the 4 remaining contenders and they all have good profiles. I’d worry about White Moonstone though since Oaks winners are very rarely highly rated 2yos. The only one to be in the top 3 since 1998 rated 109RPR+ as a 2yo was Alexandrova, and she was trained by a man whose horses I completely disregard when I do the trends for most races. The things he does with horses that I see from the trends perspective is utterly incredible.
Bible Belt, Blue Bunting, Cape Dollar, Charleston Lady, Date with Destiny, Hawaafez, Izzi Top, Khawlah, Kirinda, Midnight Caller, Mohedian Lady, Morning Charm, Polygon, Primevere, Rainbow Springs, Sunset Avenue, White Moonstone, Wonder of Wonders and Zoowraa are the 19 from the 93 initial entries on my shortlist. I’d have no problem eliminating Cape Dollar or Date with Destiny from the list since Stoute has a dreadful record in the Oaks and the latter just looks far from good enough and I doubt the trainer even has the Oaks on his mind.
I’d also tread with caution with the two Ladies, Mohedian and Charleston. They’re by Hurricane Run, a son of Montjeu, who as I mentioned, has an appalling strikerate with his fillies. Hurricane Run showed a lot less feistyness than Montjeu though, but I’d still be a bit cautious.
Wonder of Wonders looks extremely interesting although disappointing she wasn’t pushed out after her run the other day. She got absolutely no run whatsoever in a race that O’Brien loves to target with his potential Oaks fillies. I wonder whether she’ll even run again before a tint at an Oaks Trial, possibly the Cheshire which he won with both Sail & Perfect Truth and finished 2nd with All My Loving in, all of whom ran in the same maiden Wonder of Wonders ran in. She’s beautifully bred and right now would be my first choice.
Closer inspection of Hurricane Run’s progeny suggests his fillies aren’t as excitable as his father’s. Quite a few of his best progeny from his first crop are fillies.
Danehill Dancer’s Unaccompanied just won the Alleged Stakes in desperately heavy ground and finished 2nd in the Triumph. Middle-distance success is imminent for his stallion career.
*Should have also mentioned that Planteur ran with great credit in both the GP de Paris and Prix Niel.
Nice to see Izzi Top go in last night (shame about the price), but I wasn’t impressed and I’m very anti-John Gosden in the first half of the season anyway. His Group 1 record from May-July and August-October makes for very interesting reading. Crystal Etoile I thought ran a fairly decent race in a maiden that Stoute usually sends a fancied horse to (Strawberry Daquiri beaten in the race 1/2 length).
Khawlah I couldn’t have. I couldn’t consider a horse who’s run twice in Dubai and then gone to Epsom without a Trial, not at that price. Nice to see her about 1/3 the price she was though, just shame I didn’t back her before the UAE Derby…
Wonder of Wonders I really, really like. His horses have come out flying this season and Sing Softly’s progressing at an incredible rate of knots. No surprise to see her hack up in the Nell Gwyn tomorrow and to be honest she should hack up. Based on any of Aidan’s progressive Group fillies she’ll improve roughly another stone tomorrow, especially given the better ground. Like I commented, WoW ran in a race he targets with Oaks fillies and the breeding on her suggests she’ll be something special. Kingmambo horses are generally very ground sensitive though. Any sort of cut and she’ll be a sitting duck. Cheshire Oaks or Musidora is where I’d expect to see her next, probably more likely the former.
Hawaafez came out and finished 2nd in a handicap so she can be crossed off the list, Rainbow Springs is entered in 2 maidens at Newbury, Sunset Avenue’s foaling date is now showing as May 8th rather than March 8th so she’s eliminated and Cape Dollar’s entered in the Fred Darling on Saturday.
Ok I’ve got 2 live bets now, placed yesterday and this morning. Thankfully while looking through Betfair for any short-priced jollies to lay, I came across Rainbow Springs running at Ripon. Has shown infinitely better form than Izzi Top for the same trainer yet is double the price for the Oaks. I’ve backed at 65s and 70s. I now I said I don’t like him in the first part of the season, but at 70s it’s worth a punt.
I’ve also backed Kirinda, who looks like being one of Oxx’s main fillies this year. She’s declared to run in the Salsabil Stakes on Sunday with Murtagh partnering. Not much of a price, 36s and 33s. Just £10 each so far.
Date With Destiny looked beyond appalling in the paddock on Thursday. Utterly dreadful. She ran like she looked and has absolutely no chance at Epsom.
Bible Belt, Blue Bunting, Cape Dollar, Charleston Lady, Izzi Top, Kirinda*, Midnight Caller, Mohedian Lady, Morning Charm, Polygon, Primevere, Rainbow Springs*, Sunset Avenue, White Moonstone, Wonder of Wonders and Zoowraa the current shortlist. I’ve backed those with an asterisk next to their names. Interesting to see how Cape Dollar gets on today. Sariska finished a fast-finishing 4th in the Fred Darling 2 years ago, so who knows.
Well Wonder of Wonders is entered for the Cheshire Oaks as I’d hoped/expected and actually runs tonight at Tipperary in 35 minutes. It should be nothing more than a hack canter around. I’ve backed her at 30 and 36.
Kirinda ran a decent race and looks like the one to take out of the Salsabil and should be running in the Blue Wind next. It does concern me slightly however that Oxx said Emiyna’s his best 3yo filly.
Joseph O’Brien, representing his father, said: “She could be an Oaks filly and the Cheshire Oaks is a possibility.”
Heffernan added: “She gave me a lovely feel, is an uncomplicated filly and we’ll see where Aidan points her.”
I’ve gotten on again at 25s.
Glad I left Primevere and Izzi Top alone. Just looked at the roll of honour again in the morning and couldn’t bring myself to back either. Good horses very rarely run in the Pretty Polly. I backed Charleston Lady and thought she had it won. But given the winner has been beaten in a couple of low grade handicaps, I’d say it was a pretty dreadful race and wouldn’t want to keep anything on my side.
Kirinda didn’t look great at Gowran Park and she’s off the shortlist.
I should really have looked at my preview again this morning as I’d totally forgotten that Blue Bunting was on my Oaks shortlist and also Charleston Lady actually. Obviously I’ve totally missed the boat on the former and can only hope she isn’t good enough.
Bible Belt, Blue Bunting, Midnight Caller, Mohedian Lady, Morning Charm, Polygon, Rainbow Springs*, Sunset Avenue, White Moonstone, Wonder of Wonders* and Zoowraa the current shortlist. Those with an asterisk I’ve backed.
Midnight Caller’s entered against WoW in the Cheshire Oaks and Rainbow Springs is in a maiden at Ascot on Friday. Sunset Avenue’s an early-May foal, not sure if I mentioned that before so she shouldn’t really be on the shortlist anyway. White Moonstone got injured before the Guineas and I doubt she’ll make it in time to have a prep pre-Oaks.
Nothing else has an entry for anything which is rather disappointing. Oaks Trial entries out tomorrow and Musidora entries out around Friday. Should then be able to eliminate half the shortlist, maybe more. Basically I’m now praying for either Rainbow Springs or Wonder of Wonders winning the Oaks, else it’ll surely be Blue Bunting in which case I will be livid with myself for a) not backing her today, and b) not having backed her for the Oaks already.
Well Wonder of Wonders won the race she was being targeted at since the start of the season + now will head to Epsom and go off either favourite or 2nd fav. Absolutely delighted with her performance. The way she and the stop-start leader pulled clear of the others was extremely impressive, especially as she came from so far back.
She’s got some serious entries, in the Coral Eclipse no less. She’s probably the best bred horse Ballydoyle have this season, maybe even one of the best bred they’ve ever had. 5 of her parents + grandparents won Group 1s. Only Ouija Board stopped it from being 6/6. Ryan only had to stoke her along to get her alongside the leader + only had to give her 2 cracks of the whip and when he did, she quickened really well.
“She travelled very well, quickened very well and won easily,” Moore said. “Michael Hills stacked us right up down the far side and quickened away well but my filly has more class. She’s well balanced and wouldn’t have any trouble at Epsom.”
Michael Tabor, one of the filly’s joint-owners, said: “The Oaks is the obvious next race unless Aidan has other ideas. She has an excellent pedigree for the race.”
Midnight Caller ran no race + no longer on the shortlist.
Bible Belt, Blue Bunting, Mohedian Lady, Morning Charm, Polygon, Rainbow Springs, White Moonstone, Wonder of Wonders + Zoowraa the current shortlist. Not too concerned about White Moonstone or Zoowraa given they have Blue Bunting. Bible Belt holds no Musidora entry, so not looking good for her.
I’m absolutely delighted with my Oaks shortlist. Can’t get much better than first and second favourite. Not much point updating it again, although I probably will. Musidora entries will be interesting. No surprise if I only have 3 horses on my list come Friday night.
Also I had the first 2 in the Derby market until Frankel’s withdrawal. Delighted with the result as well. (My work can be seen in the 2yo Summary thread 2010 in the Horse Racing section and in the Epsom Derby 2011 thread in the Big Races section. Nothing to hide. I’ll put the excel file on the forum after the Derby.)
Just need the horses to turn up at Epsom + do the business now…
A further observation to make.
Together, runner-up to Blue Bunting in the 1000 Guineas, is clearly not one of the very best fillies at Ballydoyle. She appeared very early as a 2yo and has been aggressively campaigned, possibly to try and win the Trainers’ Championship. Race fitness may have flattered her at Newmarket.
Using her run on Sunday, connections no doubt know where they stand with Wonder of Wonders in relation to Blue Bunting, also possibly flattered by how the race was run.
Together has an abbundance of entries as you’d expect, however the Coral Eclipse isn’t one of them. Wonder of Wonders does hold an entry though. Perhaps it’s pocket talking, but I think that’s significant.
And I should also add that Khawlah was on my shortlist and strictly speaking still is, I just don’t think she’ll stay, nor do I think she’ll be competitive with a 10-week gap between running in Dubai and at Epsom. I’m not sure she’ll even run anymore. Perhaps they’ll send her to the Prix de Diane, a much more suitable target for her on pedigree.
No-one on my shortlist’s been entered in the Musidora, so there we have it. Essentially my final shortlist is…
Blue Bunting
Wonder of WondersRainbow Springs needs to win tomorrow to be on there. Doubtful she’ll even run I expect, over 100s on Betfair.
Narrowed down from the original entry list with nothing but…trends! And people say they don’t work…
I am an avid trends follower but they have not won this race yet HOWEVER i hope they do for you
Out of interest how many of your ‘list’ did you back apart from the 2 that are left? Always interesting to see how other ante post players play.
Cheers and very best of British to you
Have backed WoW (£50 I think, further £40 in multiples with Fame and Glory in the Gold Cup, 6/1 + World Domination, 10s + 4s), Kirinda (£20) + Rainbow Springs (£20 I think).
Sounds good, nice looking profile at present and only 27 days to go
Not that i am counting and eager to get there or anything LOL We have an annual excursion from N Yorks down to the Downs for 3 days to cover the meeting. Absolutely love it and in our 24th year this year, great fun and to meet up with people who we only see on Derby or Oaks Day each year.
I am with you on World Domination (20s) but also have Carlton House (16s and 12s).
Another poor performance from Rainbow Springs. Time to give up on her. No chance in the Oaks based on that and eliminated from the shortlist.
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