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AOB post race comments on Changingoftheguard…
“The one thing we weren’t sure about today was the ground when it rained as he’s such a fluid mover, but he seems to have handled it fine. We were delighted with the run and I think off the back of that, you’d have to say he’d go to Epsom now.”
New London pre race price was to do with the stable more than anything the horse has done. The same as luxembourgs price. I actually think changing of the guard at double figure prices is a belter of a bet. Very likely to be a good deal better on decent ground and no doubt he’ll stay and handle Epsom. Luxembourg I’m sure is a 120 plus horse so should beat his stablemate but has to prove he stays and handles Epsom. Remember there is a replica of Tottenham corner at ballydoyle so I’m sure they will have good idea if Luxembourg will handle the track.
Still a few trials to go and a springer may emerge otherwise aiden holds all the aces.Not sure how good the form is but cotg is a relentless galloper and I’m sure he’s won despite the ground and could well improve to 120 on good ground.
I thought Star Of India won the Dee Stakes in good style and it’s possible to rate him 109 on that, up there with the Chester Vase winner.
However, I’m not sure he would stay further than today’s trip and I just wonder if the Prix Du Jockey Club might be his target.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Looked like he wanted further to me Ian
Was off the bridle some way out before staying on strongly
Not quite sure he’s a group 1 horse class wise though
Personally not sure either of the Chester races were that deep and jury is still out on both winners with luxembourg setting a high standard
I’ve got Luxembourg 7lb ahead of both of them.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Adayar didn’t have the best number last year going to Epsom and the last 3 Aiden O Brien winners weren’t the stable number 1. Horses for courses and all that ;o)
“and the last 3 Aiden O Brien winners weren’t the stable number 1”.
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That’s hardly surprising though, Mike.
If adding the odds up of all AOB’s other runners combined, the “number 1” of each year had less chance; in two races markedly so. ie If splitting O’Brien’s runners into two – the number 1 against all his other runners in the race – in each of those three years “AOB’s other runners” (combined) were favourite to beat the “number 1”.
Therefore, the stable number 1 getting beaten is just what can be expected from the odds of the horses involved. Just the same as in any race.
It certainly does not mean that any future – individual – second or third (or whatever) string has a better chance of winning than the stable number 1, Because you’e then not judging the combined others, but just one individual against the number 1.
It also certainly does not mean the “stable number 1” should be passed over. Luxembourg is 5/2 on the exchanges, all that matters is whether the punter believes him to have a better than 29% (+ their margin for error) chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingWhat I mean is if Ryan Moore picks one it don’t mean one of the others can’t win based on AOB’s recent winners. This is based on the uniqueness of the course that can prove a leveller, and sharp improvement month to month of horses that can occur at this time of year.
BREAKING: Aidan O’Brien has revealed Derby favourite Luxembourg has had a setback. Unclear at this stage whether he will be fit in time for Epsom.
O’Brien said: “Luxembourg was a little bit off after his canter this morning. He was a little lame on his off-hind”
Out to 9/2 now
MARTINSTOWN
Has just won a maiden at cork for Ballydoyle. Strong finish, beating port Gelibrand and Dolphin flyer (Joseph O’Brien and Johnny Murtagh) has an entry at Epsom. By Galileo.
Shares moniker with JP McManus stud farm.
Would be a similar late starter to the Derby winner a couple of years back. De name escapes me now.Have backed united nations for the Lingfield Derby trial so just had a very small bet on him for this at 50s
Likely throwing it away but very small stakes on what will be a wide open race if luxembourg isn’t there fully fit
“Would be a similar late starter to the Derby winner a couple of years back. De name escapes me now.”
I presume you mean Serpentine? Remember he had the benefit of an extra month because of the shutdown.
There is nothing quite like horse racing, and predicting the future, to make anybody look foolish. So I shall just take a look at one race from the past and predict the winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial, and probably make a fool of myself. Horses can progress rapidly, physically and mentally, in the first few months of their three-year-old season (see Adayar 2021). So investing heavily at this stage of the season is a dodgy proposition because there is often no settled form and no information about the horse’s racing requirements. Natural World, in his one and only race so far, acted like a seasoned pro throughout the race, like a sprinter out of the stalls, responding instantly to his jockey saying “no need to go THAT fast, cruised easily with a smooth stride until the three pole, had the other runners off the bridle well before he came off the bridle himself, responded to his jockey even though his jockey had dropped his whip, and still had plenty of energy at the post. So much energy that his jockey could not pull him up for forty seconds. Throughout the race he just shouted “Hey! I really love this running lark.” He races for fun, but already understands why being in control in the early stages allows him to run faster at the end. Natural World has a big chance of winning the Derby Trial today. Despite various negatives, like the stable jockey being on a different horse. Foolish? Moi?
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