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Surprised that nobody has posted here after Luxembourg’s romp in the Beresford Stakes today.
I was very impressed by him but there is a caveat that he shows a fair bit of knee action and I wouldn’t think that coming down the hill to Tattenham Corner on firm ground would be ideal.
Very striking acceleration. Reminds of high chaparral as a 2yo. Still very green so possibly loads of improvement to come. Fascinating to see if aiden follows his dad’s guineas then Derby. Depends if aiden has another top miler by next may I suppose.
Perhaps I’m missing something, but I don’t see Luxembourg as the second coming and nailed on for the Derby like the race commentator and the racing media.
Sure he’s three from three and we can expect improvement, but I don’t like his head carriage, his stride at times and the way he carries his tail.
I’m no expert, so can someone please enlighten me as to why I’m wrong?
“Perhaps I’m missing something, but I don’t see Luxembourg as the second coming and nailed on for the Derby like the race commentator and the racing media.”
I’m kinda in the same boat atm, I have a feeling one or two premiere Derby candidates will emerge next season.
Don’t think he’s the second coming but with excellent 2yo form with so much scope for improvement he’s one to be excited about. T thought the second and third in the 1m 2f criterion yesterday looked promising for the Derby. Funny given aidens poor end to the season I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t get an as yet unraced horse from ballydoyle bursting onto the scene. I’m hopefully going to Chester in May so may just see another ruler of the world. Not the most exciting 2yos but who knows which will turn out to be the guineas/ Derby winners. Tenebrism looks the best prospect IMHO followed by the horse she beat. That could turn out to have been a very hot race.
AOB certainly went into Champions Day out of form, but since then (and even prior to last weekend) they’ve been running better – including most who haven’t won. An unusually quick turn around, so much so I’d now call Ballydoyle an “in form” yard! So you may well be right Mickey, one or two horse/s could be “bursting onto the scene” in the months ahead.
Value Is Everythingtbh griff11 / Mike007, weren’t commentators discussing more about which race will suit Luxembourg best, rather than his actual chance? I don’t think commentators are believing Luxembourg to be “the second coming” as such. However, facts are he’s won a top class two year old race; from the number 1 yard in Europe; has physical scope to improve at three… and with mile and a half breeding…
So should be fairly short in the Derby market and therefore “nailed on for (as in nailed on to run in) the Derby“.
Value Is EverythingBased on these and similar comments Ginger and the euphoria in the tone of the race commentator that I listened to.
“Luxembourg looks your 2022 Derby winner – there was plenty left in the tank”
“There is no way talk of next year’s Classics – be it the 2,000 Guineas, the Derby, or maybe even the St Leger – doesn’t centre on him after the commanding performance he produced at Doncaster.”
Going into 2022, aside from the two of Appleby’s that have been mentioned elsewhere for Classic glory, todays debut by Antarah looked much more impressive to me. Admittedly not winning a G1 like Luxembourg, but not tried in one either.
You’re right griff, that is OTT.
If the course commentator/s then he might be doing it deliberately to please Doncaster.Value Is EverythingI think out of the last eleven winners, only Camelot and Australia (and Masar potentially at a push) were remotely “findable” (have I invented a non-word?) for The Derby on form at the end of Juvenile season.
Its a very unpredictable affair nowadays IMO and I couldn’t see the point in having a bet at this stage, unless I am imagining this as my recent record is awful and I used to find the race quite succesful from trend angles. I bow down lower than your average earthworms belly to anyone who backed any of the others as 2yo’s for the race. (Pour Moi, Ruler Of The World, Golden Horn, Harzand, Wings of Eagles, Anthony Van Dyke, Serpentine, Adayar).
BUY THE SUN
“……were remotely “findable” for The Derby on form at the end of Juvenile season.”
And perhaps had not even been seen on a racecourse either TTC.
Unless you are privy to inside knowledge of something with exceptional promise, or are purely speculating, then antepost betting on the Derby at the end of the 2yo season is a bookies benefit.
Far too many variables.
Indeed it is. Luxembourg certainly looks like a strong Derby fancy but as you say bar Australia and camelot none stood out as 2yo. That’s the beauty of racing. We just don’t know who will come forward quickest. Snowfall must have been huge odds for the oaks this time last year.Every well bred 7f or a mile maiden winner is seen as potential Derby winner by the pundits. I’ve a feeling that with no strong favourite for either the oaks or Derby right now Chester could well be the meeting to look at. Luxembourg may well scoot up at Epsom but with it over 6 months away I’m not betting on it.
Like any other type of betting, backing ante-post is not necessarily about backing the one thought to have the best chance of winning. Value is everything.
tbh I think both Anthony Van Dyck and Golden Horn were “findable” – not that I backed them ante-post because I didn’t look hard enough and/or didn’t believe them value.
Considering AVD’s breeding (by Galileo) was always likely to be suited / improve over middle distances… And yet at just 7f his proximity to perhaps the best National Stakes winner of recent years Quorto and outpaced 4 lengths third to Champion two year old Too Darn Hot in the Dewhurst.
Golden Horn only ran in one race – a Nottingham maiden – and only won that by a head. But in doing so overcame considerable positional bias, exceptional sectionals identifying him as a top class three year old in the making. If I remember rightly Simon Rowlands put him up ante-post for the Derby.
…So with Australia and Camelot as well – and taking into account odds then available – the number of “findable” Derby winners is pretty good for those wanting to study / invest.
Value Is EverythingJust got back from my local Betfred after putting my last bet on this one. The guy looked in two minds to accept it or not and must of phoned up to report it because it has been cut now.
Antarah now 20’s best
Trainer has a bit of a habit on sending good horses up to Newcastle and this fella looked a bit special on debut. An egg and spoon race granted, but Jim Crowley must of believed he was sitting on pegasus the confidence he showed.
Looks like the lad who does the RPR things was equally impressed as he got 93 which quite high for a debut ( i think )
A long way to go but looks a bit special
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