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Feeling increasingly confident about this Tirmizi tomorrow.
Yes I agree the Lingfield derby trial was a real shower. Handicappers at best I think.
In fact the Lingfield trials have become increasingly irrelevant over the years.
The thinking is that Idaho will be Heffernan’s mount in the Derby (Ryan on US Army Ranger), and he hasn’t ridden him before so needs to ride him in his trial.
Mmmm – KIND of makes sense but isn’t the point of trials to find out who might be the best? Does this mean that Ryan has no intention of riding Idaho no matter what he does tomorrow? He’s been riding all the other hopefuls so why not this one? Unless he genuinely thinks Shogun is the better horse – I see he has been backed. I am not a huge fan of Idaho; I don’t like his head carriage and he hits the ground hard – not sure he is top class either. Tomorrow will tell us more.
The trials have told us very little and I still think the Guineas runner up has shown the best form of everyone so far. The question is whether he will stay. After tomorrow we are just left with the Dante although there is the Cocked Hat and also the French 2,000. Apparently The Gurkha will run even though he wasn’t originally entered. In fact his only French entries were the French Derby and the Grand Prix Paris. This tells me they thought he was more of a middle distance horse to begin with and he must have surprised them in his work and when he won lto. It is a big step up from maiden to classic but they rate him highly. With nothing so far really shining from Ballydoyle (at least nothing with balls), I am still hoping TG will end up at Epsom. The next 8 days will be interesting.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I feel Across The Stars will prove to be the best of these in time and may turn out to be a St Leger type.
I am still waiting for the Ballydoyle colt that will be a better candidate for the Derby than Minding and time is running out.
Spot on. Across The Stars was especially unlucky and given that he pulled like a train in the early part of the race I would say he will prove to be the best by some distance. Provided he learns to settle.
And yes Minding is clearly better than all the colts we have seen so far – just Idaho and The Gurkha really left….
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The trials are highly unlikely to have shown us a group one winner. Three years ago ruler of the world and magician won by large margins and then went on to win the derby and the breeders cup turf. I doubt very much there was horses of that quality but we still have a few weeks to the derby and maybe one will take a huge leap forward.
This interview with AOB seems to explain the jockey booking questions – “Idaho is in good form and handles any ease in the ground. We think he’s progressed from his first run in the Ballysax and he’ll appreciate any rain.
“Seamie is on him at the moment as, when we declared the horses, it was on good ground and we felt Shogun would get the conditions he wanted.
“He’s a much better horse on good ground and we’re looking forward to stepping him up in trip and going beyond a mile for the first time.
“The rain that came today was not in his favour, though, so we’ll have to wait and see what way the ground comes up.”
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
If I knew he was a definite runner I would probably risk a little on Algometer. The very fancy prices have gone recently (although much bigger exists on the exchanges which is a concern) but if Midterm is a 3/1 shot should Algometer really be 40/1?
I don’t think the other trials have looked better than the Sandown race and there isn’t really going to be that much more on offer after the Dante.
Even if it is assumed Algometer isn’t going to reverse the form with Midterm a similar effort should see him with a place chance. The pluses from the Sandown race were the significant step forward and the likeable attitude in that he kept battling despite being the first under pressure and seemingly carried across the track. Obviously, it is pretty much guesswork as to whether he or the winner will take the bigger step forward next time. There are probably negatives with all similar profile horses but with him it would chiefly concern whether the extra two furlongs would be a plus or a minus. As for the track he didn’t handle Goodwood that well but that was his initial run.
I don’t think I’ve ever felt so dispirited by a Derby line-up. Nothing is standing out. Even Camelot’s Derby had a bit more appeal at this stage. Yawnfest!
I think I read somewhere that Algometer goes to France Stilv but don’t quote me on it!!
This is the most open Derby for years I think.
Personally I don’t fancy anything at the moment/ It is just a case of bring on the Dante!!
I think I read somewhere that Algometer goes to France Stilv but don’t quote me on it!!
This is the most open Derby for years I think.
Personally I don’t fancy anything at the moment/ It is just a case of bring on the Dante!!
Thanks, that would presumably explain the big price and also suggest that connections may well have issues with distance/track. Best keep my money in my pocket. If he does go to France he could well be a double figure price on the day.
Sorry Stilv it is Irish derby not French!! My mistake!!
Simcock thinks it will be better on softer ground and he doesn’t think they will get that at Epsom.
In a normal year I wouldn’t fancy Idaho. He probably reminds me of John Gosden’s Western Hymn who I backed anre-post in his Derby year in terms of ability at this stage. I felt that horse might place at Epsom but he couldn’t manage it and finished 6th, however that was a Derby with Australia, Kingston Hill, Arod and Fascinating Rock in the field, so it was a far better race than this year’s renewal looks.
Idaho needs to win this nicely today to be a realistic candidate and the purists will probably be hoping that Tirmizi wins this and offers some hope that a, once-raced, potential star can throw his hat into the Epsom ring.
The race today offers a reasonable chance of providing a serious candidate for the Derby.
The Dante looks to be between Midterm and Foundation, with the latter having to bounce back from a poor run in the Craven, the form took a knock in the Guineas and Foundation looked one paced and uninspiring that day, even allowing for the fact that the race was run in bad conditions. Shogun, who was third that day runs in the Derrinstown and he may pay a compliment to the form but I believe he’s an exposed sort at less than top class.
Midterm could be red hot favourite for the Derby after the Dante is run but for now I feel there is a risk that his rating and that of Algometer may just be a shade high. Much has been made of the time being good that day but I am not sure myself.
If Algometer really took the big leap forward that his new mark suggests he did, he could improve by another chunk next time and, as Stilvi says, he may just improve more than Midterm, however, the trainer ruled Algometer out of the Epsom race and stated that the Irish Derby was his target.
I’ll be happy if Idaho and Foundation can line up in the Derby with a chance and may have a saver on my Ante-Post bets on the day, depending how it looks for me at that time.
Algometer story link:- http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/simcock-eyes-irish-derby-not-epsom-for-algometer/2075646/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really like Bolgers Moonlight Magic hes about to run in the Derrinstown, I don’t know if he’s entered in the Derby but was really impressed with him at 2 and don’t think the ground suited him LTO
I didn’t see the race today but I do remember in his win at the end of last season he looked a bit of an awkward big horse with an odd stride (maybe just as he was still green) so I’m not sure how he would get on at Epsom but surely Godolphin will want to run him now?
A nice bounce back from Moonlight Magic who looked a picture of health today.
I suspect he was the one horse in the field today with a bit of pace about him and he stole a march utilising it. Idaho came with a steady run but it was too steady and I am not sure Epsom will suit his style. He’s probably going to end up at Doncaster with a leading chance in the St Leger.
It was all the same story from this year’s trials with a bunch finish indicating mediocrity, more questions were raised than answered really and yet another trial passes without O’Brien having anything that looks as remotely good a candidate for the Derby than Minding, who is his best prospect by a metric mile this year.
I think she’s a shoo-in if the have the gonads to run her, but I suspect Aidan will send a bunch of second raters there again, hoping to get lucky and then announcing “This horse has only come to himself in the last fortnight, the World’s his lobster now”
Well done to those who kept the faith with Moonlight Magic.
I was surprised to see Tirmizi so short at 3/1 last night and he opened at 5/1 before drawing some support. This looked a tough ask on seasonal debut and Dermot should probably have started in more modest company. This looked too much too soon for him.
Shogun showed why Ryan was on board him by finishing ahead of the other two, not that there was a lot between the three of them in the end. If US Army Ranger is the best of the O’Brien colts this year it looks to be by default over a mediocre bunch who are a stone short of top class.
I am not sure Moonlight Magic will get the Derby trip but he’ll be one of the leading handful now so good luck to his fans.
This Derby looks pure bobbins, so I hope Midterm or Foundation can show something at York.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I really like Moonlight Magic but I don’t know if I would back him for the Derby, there is a lot of speed in his Pedigree.. but in a bad year maybe he will be good enough – to be honest I think he should still improve, he was still very green at the end of last season – it looked like they left a lot to work with.
Agreed Stevie – a very unsatisfactory race again today. I know I keep banging this drum but did you notice how close Saafaar finished to them? Beaten 3 lengths having cut out all the early pace. The Gurkha destroyed him by 9 lengths. I promise you, if there is a 3 year old superstar at Ballydoyle with balls, I am sure it is The Gurkha. It’s just whether they see him as a middle-distance horse.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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