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Hoping to see my 100/1 Derby punt Housesofparliament earn a day out at Epsom. The jockey bookings don’t look too promising, but we all saw what nearly happened yesterday and at 100/1 not much to lose.
Midterm has done nothing wrong. It has always been a question of whether his odds have been value or not.
His scope for improvement is there to be seen but he does need to improve and I feel that his performance in the Classic Trial may potentially be overrated.
Two who ran behind him were no shows next time in the Chester Vase and Ode To Evening was beaten into 5th in Handicap company next time, raising questions about his 100 rating, which I expect to be lowered next Wednesday.
I think the Classic Trial hinges on how good Algometer really is. Did he really improve from 86 to 109 in the race? 23lbs is a considerable climb and I would tend to err of the side of scepticism.
Midterm needs to win the Dante to be favourite for the Derby I feel. Had the race been before the Craven I would have been all over John Gosden’s Foundation for the Dante but the colt was woeful at Newmarket as Stormy Antarctic came past him with ease, making the notion that Foundation may be a Guineas colt pretty laughable.
It was bad weather at the Craven meeting and there was thunder and lightning before the race but Foundation was pretty lifeless and had allegedly been “sparkling” on the gallops the week before. This makes it questionable which Foundation will turn up at York.
I expect a tiny field for the Dante and I am not sure how much we will really learn from it. A comfortable win for Midterm seems the only result that would give a solid looking horse for the Derby.
At the moment I could see a really low rating for this year’s Epsom winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well another trial gone and another couple of O’Brien bubbles burst.
If Aidan has a leading candidate for the Derby it is Minding, as I said earlier.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve any views on derringstown big day for MOONLIGHT MAGIC ground stays fast which is good for him a much better performance on sunday i expect.Any views on Weld horse and Moore on Shogun.
….and as another AOB fails to impress…..cue the shortening of the Idaho. As short as 10s with paddies
Bhutans easy win on debut from houses of parliament looks strong form now. Go on aiden,in this year of all years get it on course for the derby poor homework or not.
Steve any views on derringstown big day for MOONLIGHT MAGIC ground stays fast which is good for him a much better performance on sunday i expect.Any views on Weld horse and Moore on Shogun.
I fancy Idaho for the Derrinstown Darren. I am not biased towards him because I have two bets on him at 25/1 for Epsom, he simply struck me as a horse who looked to be coming to win the Ballysax in quite taking style but then got tired on the heavy ground and got caught.
You could see today’s show from Cook Islands as letting the Ballysax form down but I felt the trip and the Chester track were all against Cook Islands today. I felt that Aidan would have run US Army Ranger in the Dee Stakes and left Cook Islands for the Vase race but perhaps US Army Ranger needed the Vase trip.
Cook Islands was never going the pace and I noted in his maiden write up that he took a full two furlongs to steadily reel in the leaders that day, before going on from them in the final furlong. He looked every inch a St Leger horse to me and he either needs further or he’s not gone on from last season.
The thing with Idaho is that he showed a good turn of foot in his maiden win and he was then pitched in late season into a Group 1 race on mud against better horses. It seemed folly, particularly as O’Brien had said the horse didn’t need another race. What was more folly is that the maiden winner went of favourite against group horses proven on the ground. In the circumstances Idaho ran well enough.
The ground was against Idaho again in the Ballsax but again he ran well, easily outpointing Cook Islands and Beacon Rock, who were both more fancied.
I am shocked to see Ryan Moore on Shogun here. I think the horse is a bust myself and if he’s Aidan’s best hope for the Derby then they may as well give up now. Why would Ryan be on a horse who is 50/1 for the Derby when Idaho is 16/1 at best?
Bookies have Idaho 2/1 favourite on early shows and 9/2 on Shogun for the Derrinstown and as far as I am concerned they have it right, not Ryan. I think Shogun’s a cuddy myself but we will see.
It’s a good looking race,on a par with the Dante in my opinion in terms of strength in depth. Tirmizi went into a lot of notebooks last year and Hannon showed today that his Ventura Storm might be worthy of respect with his Viren’s Army lifting the Dee Stakes.
I wish I could be more upbeat about Moonlight Magic but I expect him to be held on the Ballysax form. All the arguments you can make for why he might improve from it can equally be applied to those who were ahead of him that day and Jim Bolger is totally out of form with 0/27 this past fortnight and, to be honest, he’s not really been living the high life the past couple of seasons anyway.
Moonlight Magic is 10/1 for the Derrinstown and he just doesn’t appeal to me at all, even at those odds.
Tirmizi is poor value at 3/1 for the trial in my opinion. He could be anything as the saying goes but Stellar Mass and Claudio Monteverdi hardly franked the form of his maiden and he has presumably been a bit slower to come to hand.
The ground is currently good and I feel that is going to suit Idaho. I marked him as a potential middle distance horse with a turn of foot last year and backed him for the Derby ante-post. I went in again at the same odds recently and hope he can prove that was worthwhile on Sunday.
I’ll take 2/1 Idaho and expect that he will win this trial quite well.
If you watch the Ballysax again below, you will see that Idaho sweeps through from last place and comes past the eventual winner, going at least two lengths up on him. It is clear that Idaho tires and the other horse then wears him down. That sweeping move could be a valuable asset at Epsom if the horse progresses and get’s decent ground to run on. He comes past Cook Islands and Beacon Rock with ease.
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/929779
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just a ps on the Ballysax. If you took Harzand out of that race and left Idaho winning it by 7 and a half lengths from Beacon Rock, what odds would Idaho have gone into for the Derby at that time?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The thinking is that Idaho will be Heffernan’s mount in the Derby (Ryan on US Army Ranger), and he hasn’t ridden him before so needs to ride him in his trial.
Just a ps on the Ballysax. If you took Harzand out of that race and left Idaho winning it by 7 and a half lengths from Beacon Rock, what odds would Idaho have gone into for the Derby at that time?
What do you think of Idaho’s action. Might get away with it on Sunday but no way at Epsom.
Surely they send him to France
Steve any views on derringstown big day for MOONLIGHT MAGIC ground stays fast which is good for him a much better performance on sunday i expect.Any views on Weld horse and Moore on Shogun.
I fancy Idaho for the Derrinstown Darren. I am not biased towards him because I have two bets on him at 25/1 for Epsom, he simply struck me as a horse who looked to be coming to win the Ballysax in quite taking style but then got tired on the heavy ground and got caught.
You could see today’s show from Cook Islands as letting the Ballysax form down but I felt the trip and the Chester track were all against Cook Islands today. I felt that Aidan would have run US Army Ranger in the Dee Stakes and left Cook Islands for the Vase race but perhaps US Army Ranger needed the Vase trip.
Cook Islands was never going the pace and I noted in his maiden write up that he took a full two furlongs to steadily reel in the leaders that day, before going on from them in the final furlong. He looked every inch a St Leger horse to me and he either needs further or he’s not gone on from last season.
The thing with Idaho is that he showed a good turn of foot in his maiden win and he was then pitched in late season into a Group 1 race on mud against better horses. It seemed folly, particularly as O’Brien had said the horse didn’t need another race. What was more folly is that the maiden winner went of favourite against group horses proven on the ground. In the circumstances Idaho ran well enough.
The ground was against Idaho again in the Ballsax but again he ran well, easily outpointing Cook Islands and Beacon Rock, who were both more fancied.
I am shocked to see Ryan Moore on Shogun here. I think the horse is a bust myself and if he’s Aidan’s best hope for the Derby then they may as well give up now. Why would Ryan be on a horse who is 50/1 for the Derby when Idaho is 16/1 at best?
Bookies have Idaho 2/1 favourite on early shows and 9/2 on Shogun for the Derrinstown and as far as I am concerned they have it right, not Ryan. I think Shogun’s a cuddy myself but we will see.
It’s a good looking race,on a par with the Dante in my opinion in terms of strength in depth. Tirmizi went into a lot of notebooks last year and Hannon showed today that his Ventura Storm might be worthy of respect with his Viren’s Army lifting the Dee Stakes.
I wish I could be more upbeat about Moonlight Magic but I expect him to be held on the Ballysax form. All the arguments you can make for why he might improve from it can equally be applied to those who were ahead of him that day and Jim Bolger is totally out of form with 0/27 this past fortnight and, to be honest, he’s not really been living the high life the past couple of seasons anyway.
Moonlight Magic is 10/1 for the Derrinstown and he just doesn’t appeal to me at all, even at those odds.
Tirmizi is poor value at 3/1 for the trial in my opinion. He could be anything as the saying goes but Stellar Mass and Claudio Monteverdi hardly franked the form of his maiden and he has presumably been a bit slower to come to hand.
The ground is currently good and I feel that is going to suit Idaho. I marked him as a potential middle distance horse with a turn of foot last year and backed him for the Derby ante-post. I went in again at the same odds recently and hope he can prove that was worthwhile on Sunday.
I’ll take 2/1 Idaho and expect that he will win this trial quite well.
If you watch the Ballysax again below, you will see that Idaho sweeps through from last place and comes past the eventual winner, going at least two lengths up on him. It is clear that Idaho tires and the other horse then wears him down. That sweeping move could be a valuable asset at Epsom if the horse progresses and get’s decent ground to run on. He comes past Cook Islands and Beacon Rock with ease.
Goodness me! He’s not gonna like Epsom. Flat tracks strictly in my view
This is Idaho on his debut, racing on ground described as good, good to firm in places.
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/905971
If he can run like that again on similar ground I’ll be happy enough.
This Derby looks like a smidgen of class will be enough to lift it and I feel that is more important than analysing the gait of the horse for flaws. It’s not like we are talking an odds-on shot here and searching for reasons not to invest.
There always has to be a question mark to get decent odds about a horse and handling the track at Epsom is normally one that is aimed at most lightly raced horses.
Plenty of people believe US Army Ranger is the kiddie but we only have Aidan’s reassurance on that score and he’s been known to spin the odd yarn on that front before.
Sunday should show us more and it may well be that Idaho simply isn’t good enough and may not even go to Epsom depending how it pans out. He’s 2/1 for the Derrinstown, so it’s odds on that he won’t win the trial anyway.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Hello everybody, after a few month’s of reading and enjoying everybody’s thoughts, especially the build up to Cheltenham, I’ve decided to take the plunge and contribute. I’ve recently been backing Tirmizi ante post for The Derby at 50’s 33’s and 25’s. Tomorrow is obviously make or break for my particular fancy. I decided to back Tirmizi after his debut win at leopardstown, Stellar Mass was rated 102 going into this race after his previous 1 length defeat to Port Douglas in the Beresford. Tirmizi beat him a length and a quarter. Admittedly Stellar Mass has gone backwards. But I thought this indicated a decent level of ability from Tirmizi. Weld also had the Beresford runner up True Solitaire as a yardstick. Then Harzand wins the Ballysax beating a few O’Brien nags, with only Idaho making a race of it. This was run on heavy going in April and Harzand did have a previous run under his belt. In his stable tour Weld describes Harzand as a “potentially nice staying type”. After his Ballysax win the stable said He was not a Derby horse, but hopefully a st leger type. Now Weld has won the derrinstown trial 8 times, including twice in the last decade, Casual Conquest 7-2f 3rd in New Approachs Derby and Fascinating Rock, who was well beaten at Epsom by Australia, but who has since proved himself a group 1 winner. This may indicate that Tirmizi is very highly regarded, in the stable tour, Tirmizi is described as a magnificent big horse, who is over 16 hands and 500 kg. A big long striding horse who they are in no rush with. He states he is pleasing them and the Derrinstown is his intended starting point. Now the fact that he has 2 horses Harzand rated 110 and True Solitaire rated 108 in the yard, he must have an idea where he stands given Tirmizi is rated 92. Beacon Rock is 109 Idaho 108 along with Shogun. Tirmizi is the least exposed horse in the race and reading between a few lines, I think there is a case for him in a so far uninspiring week of Trials. In the stable tour, Weld uses the word magnificent twice, the other horse to receive this label was Zawraq, who would have been in the first 3 in the betting for last years Derby but for injury! Dermot is not a man for hyperbole. I’m hoping he is also due some luck after Zawraq and Free Eagle both having curtailed 3yo campaigns. Here’s hoping I don’t fall flat on my face in a days time on my first post!
Also I think Ryan Moore is riding Shogun instead of Idaho because they know he won’t be riding either at Epsom. He has a choice of Midterm, US Army Ranger and maybe Minding. It makes sense for Heffernan to ride Idaho as he could be the stables second or third string on Derby day.
Don’t know if it’s a race you could be massively confident on but I’d rather back Tirmizi than Idaho tomorrow.
The very fact that Moore in on Shogun suggests to me that none of O’Brien’s can be that good.
Don’t know if it’s a race you could be massively confident on but I’d rather back Tirmizi than Idaho tomorrow.
The very fact that Moore in on Shogun suggests to me that none of O’Brien’s can be that good.
Sunspangled explained that the thinking is that Heffernan gets to know Idaho because he will probably ride him at Epsom and Ryan will be on US Army Ranger.
I would imagine that is why Ryan isn’t on Beacon Rock either. Beacon Rock has a fair bit to turn round with Idaho from the Ballysax and I see him as much more of a St Leger type. I actually doubt they will run him at Epsom, as I don’t think the track will play to his strengths.
Tirmizi is certainly a decent dark horse for the Derby. I just feel he is conceding race sharpness and experience in the Derrinstown and would rather back him for Epsom as the better value. Even if he then wins the Derrinstown you would be in very good shape once the odds collapse on him.
With the proven promise of the Ballysax behind him and the ground being less testing today it just makes more mathematical sense to me to take Idaho at 2/1 rather than Tirmizi at 3/1 for Sunday. Tirmizi is being backed for these races as if he has already confirmed his promise. It’s that time of year when punters start scratching about for the each-way value with no strong candidate at the head of the market.
Golden Horn was available at 3/1 with a run after the Dante last year and it makes little sense for me for Midterm to be the same odds before the Dante is run.
Tirmizi is in my horses to follow this year and there is little doubt he should make up into a very talented colt. This may be early enough for him yet and Dermot Weld doesn’t have many Epsom Derby runners, as a man who is patient enough for the horses to come good when the time is right for them. Godolphin seem to push their horses from an early age and their Classics record is poor of late. Patience may serve them better.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can see the appeal with Idaho but he strikes me as more of a royal ascot type, might end up running there as looks to me like an out and out galloper.
Well that Lingfield Derby trial looked a load of old welly. There is nothing there that should even be running in the race.
Winner Humphrey Bogart is a solid performer but he’s not even close to top class. Carntop looled slightly awkward in the closing stages and it was a bunch finish with Michael Stoute’s horse unluckily hampered at a crucial stage. I feel Across The Stars will prove to be the best of these in time and may turn out to be a St Leger type.
We were told by the trainer that Godolphin had a high opinion of Winning Story. The only story here was that he won’t be winning much on this showing. He went out like a like and the only Derby he’ll be winning is on Blackpool Beach.
Another poor trial and it’s only the Derrinstown and Dante that are left to provide something of note for the Derby this year.
I am still waiting for the Ballydoyle colt that will be a better candidate for the Derby than Minding and time is running out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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