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I was having a look at the Dante entries for Aidan O’ Brien and none of them inspire me.
The shortest odds on any of his colts for that race is 10/1, which tells its own story. Powerful weak Derby team Batman!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, no Derby trial entries for Bhutan it seems. 😥 Really disappointed with that. I know Aidan said he’s very lazy on the gallops but surely his maiden showed that he might be one of those that blossom on a racetrack instead. Seems like it’s going to be Royal Ascot for him.
Anyway, instead, I just had a flutter on the horse he beat that day and who has come out and win impressively since. Housesofparliament at 100/1, you know it makes sense!
Aidan will run Minding in the Derby, be very surprised if he dosent. Best horse in the race with the most experience and will get weight. Absolute certainty.
Aidan will run Minding in the Derby, be very surprised if he dosent. Best horse in the race with the most experience and will get weight. Absolute certainty.
I doubt it personally. It’s far more valuable for Coolmore to win it with a colt. A Derby win is the making of a stallion prospect, and this is a very winnable Derby. Midterm and Galileo Gold are the shortest non-Coolmore horses in the betting and they are hardly sure things. They just need one of US Army Ranger, Idaho, The Gurkha, Housesofparliament or even the Gosden-trained Royal Artillery to win well in their Derby trial and Minding will be confirmed as a definite Oaks runner. And, even if they all flop, it’s still not a certainty that Minding runs the Derby as we saw last year despite all the rumours about Found and Legatissimo.
That said, as you can back Minding with a run, I would not discourage anyone from backing her as she would be a quite likely winner if she lines up.
Bhutan must be showing up poorly on the gallops as he looked the biz where it matters,on the race course. The way aiden speaks about the Derby fav he has his doubts about the horse. Johannes vermeer will be a big miss for them and he was my fancy for the derby before he got injured. The runners in the various Derby trials are not inspiring and while they would rather win it with a colt they will be sorely tempted to run minding. Ryan moore knows what we all saw that minding is a top horse and he’s already said he would ride her in the Derby,given the choice. Of those running in trials idaho makes most appeal as he is still relatively unexposed.
Hugo Palmer currently on RUK confirms Galileo Gold will not run in the Derby and will be campaigned at a mile for Irish 2000g, SJP and Sussex St etc
Chester vase told us heehaw. Apart from the fact that port Douglas is a cracking ew bet in the Derby. With his penalty that’s the best form for the derby so far so can’t understand why he’s three times the price of us army ranger. High ground did nothing for the form of the Sandown classic trial so why the winner is 7/2 is bizarre. Let’s hope idaho or black Sea scoot up or minding could well head for the derby. I think the ground was key to the result of the vase as port Douglas relished it. Us army ranger was very green and could well head to royal Ascot. Still no sign of Bhutan running anytime. Aiden could look very silly if houses of parliament scoots up tomorrow.
One thing from the vase is that was a big leap forward from us army Rangers first run and if he improves as much again could well be in the shake up come Derby day. Just a thought.
One thing from the vase is that was a big leap forward from us army Rangers first run and if he improves as much again could well be in the shake up come Derby day. Just a thought.
I agree. He’s jumped from winning a maiden to beating a group 2 winner, that’s quite a jump. I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss is Derby chance.
Hugo Palmer currently on RUK confirms Galileo Gold will not run in the Derby and will be campaigned at a mile for Irish 2000g, SJP and Sussex St etc
Due to a DNA test indicating that he won’t stay a mile apparently. I suppose “less than one percent” is pretty conclusive and, having already planned my day out at Goodwood on Sussex Stakes day, I’m far from disappointed in this case. I don’t really like the idea of top horses being denied their chance in premier races by lab tests though. I’m sure there have been several Derby winners who would have failed that test.
Well it looks like the Dante is going to be the key again!!
Unlike last year I have not had an antepost Derby bet and shall be waiting until the Dante before doing so!!
What are others rating US Army Ranger for today’s win?
For me he hasn’t come forward much from the figure of 97 that the Racing Post gave him for his maiden win.
Port Douglas is rated 105 and he was only beaten a short head today. Port Douglas also gave US Army Ranger 4lbs so that means you have to devalue the winner’s rating accordingly.
Port Douglas won the Gp 2 Beresford but just because a race has a designation it does not guarantee the quality of any particular renewal.
Last season’s Beresford has seen 14 runs and zero winners since. The runner up was beaten in Listed company next time out.
Port Douglas himself ran in the Racing Post Trophy and was behind Foundation (disappointing since) and Marcel (Bitterly disappointing since) Aidan felt the need to run Port Douglas in both first time tongue tie and first time cheek-pieces today, so I am assuming he has been far from straight-forward.
I am not a ratings expert but looking at a field of horses rated in the 90’s and bearing in mind the runner-up’s rating, I would be struggling to justify much more than 100 for US Army Ranger and that’s a worry for me no matter how big or bold a P you want to stick on the end of the number.
You could look at the bare result today and argue that High Grounds was beaten a good ten lengths further today than he was when 3rd to Midterm in the Sandown Trial but that would be missing the fact, which was that the Charlie Hills colt was virtually impossible to ride early in the race. His head was flailing about as wildly as I can recall and it was always going to cost the horse in the closing stages and it was no surprise that he weakened rapidly late on.
Biodynamic started this season with a third in the valuable Newmarket sales race won by Linguistic. He went up the handicap ratings from 74 to 94 for that run and I am always sceptical about these sorts of rises in that sort of scenario. He didn’t look a 94 rated horse today.
Ormito ran in the 10f Zetland Stakes last year and that is a 2yo race notorious for slow horses. His run in a group 1 after that was in a French race in November on an absolute ploughed field. I suspect 1m6f or 2m will be his bag in time.
I would love to read what others think US Army Ranger should be rated now and how the figure was calculated. I just can’t agree he’s taken a big step forward today at all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well it looks like the Dante is going to be the key again!!
Unlike last year I have not had an antepost Derby bet and shall be waiting until the Dante before doing so!!
Midterm is hot favourite for the Dante Raymo and there just isn’t anything looking like a viable threat to him unless Foundation can bounce back.
I have said from the start that the trials don’t look strong this year and I suspect Aidan has a weak hand of colts at this stage of the season.
God help Aidan if Port Douglas is his best hope.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
High ground did nothing for the form of the Sandown classic trial so why the winner is 7/2 is bizarre.
High Ground had run his race after the first two furlongs. He was flailing around like a headless chicken and pulled his chance away in the first quarter mile.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If midterm is fav for the derby then we have the poorest Derby for years. As for port Douglas it was his first run as a 3 yo and they pulled away from the rest. To me it shows it’s decent form and it equates to around 110. Should either of the first two in the vase come forward by 10 to 12 pounds then will go very close in the Derby. Hopefully something will jump out in the trials but as it stands the first two in the vase have as good a chance as any in the Derby. Still think idaho is the one to back and we will see where we are after the Dante.
I don’t know what Midterm has done wrong. Plenty been crabbing him but I recall his maiden win at Newbury last season, I was astonished that he won from the position he was in at half way. They went no pace early but he just took off in the final furlong. That in itself marked him out as a potential middle distance superstar for me.
Both his sire and his dam ran very well at epsom, Galileo of course won pulling a cart and Midday was arguably unlucky behind Sariska.
Based on what his parents did when they were stepped up to 1 mile 4, this horse should improve plenty on the step up to mile and a half.
Of course they don’t always justify the hype but just based on breeding and connections alone he clearly has an outstanding chance in what is shaping up to be a fairly ordinary derby.
If he wins the Dante impressively I can see him trading around the evs mark for Epsom.
Minding won’t run.
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