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Was quite impressed with Midterm’s attitude today for one so inexperienced – the first two pulled a long way clear of the rest in a short space of time and after looking initially like it would be a close finish he was pulling clear nicely at the end.
Stoute’s comment that he is a very lazy worker who wouldn’t beat many of his maidens at home was quite amusing and I would expect he would have learned an awful lot today – next stop either York or Chester.
Was quite impressed with Midterm’s attitude today for one so inexperienced – the first two pulled a long way clear of the rest in a short space of time and after looking initially like it would be a close finish he was pulling clear nicely at the end.
Stoute’s comment that he is a very lazy worker who wouldn’t beat many of his maidens at home was quite amusing and I would expect he would have learned an awful lot today – next stop either York or Chester.
Don’t you feel 6/1 is very skinny for the Derby though? It’s 30 years since Shahrastani won that trial and then benefited from Greville Starkey’s mind fart on Dancing Brave in winning the Derby.
Too short for me, as I feel he is priced as if big improvement is guaranteed, rather than possible.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There were 3 other races on the card over the same distance, and Midterm’s was the fastest of the quartet by a good bit.
He’s short alright but is a major player in my view.
Good news for us The Gurkha fans – according to Kevin Buckley he now goes to a trial. Johannes Vermeer has had a setback so Aiden’s Derby options starting to dwindle…..just the 35 now.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Glad to hear about the ghurka. What about Bhutan. It’s form looks hot already and atrial race will let us know if he is up to it. Sad to hear re jv as that has been my long term fancy for the derby.
Bhutan still not got any entries so could be they are looking at royal Ascot or the Irish derby. Strange when the race is the most wide open I can remember.
I would imagine the style of Bhutan’s victory came as a bit of a surprise to them hence the fact he is not entered anywhere. I am sure you will see him in a trial though and they can always supplement.
As usual there are a lot ifs, buts and maybes at the moment with the Derby.
The betting is headed by a once-raced maiden winner who had the form let down and is only as short as he is because of connections and what he must be doing at home. He may be the next wonder horse but I wouldn’t be backing him at those prices.
I agree with StevieC that Midterm is now far too skinny at 6’s. I was at Sandown the other day and was not exactly blown away. He did it well enough but he didn’t look a Derby winner to me. Saying that he does tick a lot of boxes. We know he’ll stay (in fact 12f will probably be his optimum trip), we can be fairly certain he’ll handle the track (ma and pa did) and he is in very good hands. He ran to 112 at Sandown which is not bad considering it was first time out and the front two pulled a long way clear from some decent horses some of whom (High Grounds for example) are highly regarded at home. We don’t know much about the 2nd apart from that his maiden is working out well but we didn’t know much about Excelebration when he chased Frankel home the first time (sorry – had to get a mention of him in somewhere!) Midterm may have the improvement in him and he has some of the better form amongst the leading contenders but 6’s is too short. The thing with this one is you can safely wait to see how he goes in a trial because he is never going to be spectacular I don’t think so I can’t see his price shrinking too much even if he wins.
It’s far too early to say it’s a bad Derby yet (remember this time last year GH had only won at Newmarket and JH had won a handicap) but it doesn’t look likely that anything from the 2,000 Guineas will be heading to Epsom as the race appears to be choc full of genuine milers so the trials will be especially informative I think. It could well be that one or two emerge from the pack like last year. Aiden still has plenty of cards to play and there is no doubt that horses like Bhutan and Idaho have the breeding and have shown the promise to potentially be players.
I am happy to be on The Gurkha at 16’s for now given that he was one of only two Ballydoyle horses mentioned in regard to The Derby by Kevin Buckley yesterday. He may be a doubtful stayer but I think he has class so I guess time will tell.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Bhutan obviously did surprise them but the runner up in that maiden has since scooted up so they know he’s a very decent sort. I like the ghurka but I’m always wary of wide margin maiden winners although Highland reel won his maiden by 12 lengths eased down and he’s turned out OK. Remember ruler of the world would be similar to us army ranger at this stage but wasn’t getting rave reviews on the gallops. The trials will fascinating this year with the betting changing rapidly if something wins well. Bhutan will do for me just now.
Galileo Gold has been introduced at 12/1 for the big one and Masaat in at 16s.
1: Any chance either will turn up?
2: Just – any chance?Surely Mr Palmer must be thinking that the St James’ Palace is at his mercy whilst Masaat should clean up in the Irish Guineas/St James’ if averted by the big GG.
I doubt they’ll run Galileo Gold in the Derby, he has a reasonable chance of staying 10f in time, but not 12f. The St James Palace looks a far more likely option for him.
I’m sceptical.
Paco Boy was a miler with a pedigree to match – Green Desert sire line and a dam who never won past 7f. Galicuix is a half sister to an out-and-out sprinter in Goldream.
That said, the latter is by Oasis Dream whereas Galicuix herself is obviously Galileo, so maybe we can expect rather different genes popping up in Galileo Gold. Go back a few generations down the female line and you find Floripedes, runner-up in the Prix Royal Oak and dam of Montjeu. A ray of hope?
TBH I’d be surprised if he stays 12f – but then, Thoroughbreds have been amazing at proving me wrong for as long as I’ve loved them.
Maybe he’ll make a good 10f horse? It’ll be interesting whether connections are tempted by the Derby, or whether they go the tried-and-tested route of Irish Guineas/St James’s Palace with a step up to 10f later in the season.
Nobody in this 2000g field before and certainly after the race screamed out to me that another 4f would be what they wanted but in regards to Galileo Gold, the 10.5f Prix du Jockey Club could be a viable alternative if they wanted to go up in trip.
However, personally at the moment I think a strongly run 8f looks ideal for him barring in mind how hard he pulled in the early stages of todays race which is not something you could get away with him doing at Epsom as Dawn Approach’s connections could attest to.
If I owned Galileo Gold I wouldn’t be keen at wasting a run in the Derby at the expense of trying to win the Irish Guineas and St James’s Palace but hope they do as it will add interest and excitement to the race.
There’s a horse I believe will win the Derby easily this year. The trouble is that it probably won’t run.
This horse is Minding.
Looking at the Derby, a maiden winner is heading the betting and some promising but far from solid horses sit in behind.
Minding looked on of the best Guineas winners for a while and the 2000 Guineas runners from this season are no exactly crying out as Derby certainties.
Bookmakers go 5/2 with a run for Minding, so you get our money back if she doesn’t run. I feel the fillies may be better than the colts at middle distances this year and Minding would be far from a forlorn hope with her weight allowance in mediocre looking year for the Derby.
Cape Verdi had a go back in 1998 but didn’t cut it as favourite. I feel Minding looks a better type than her for the Epsom race though. I don’t see any issues with Minding and you are better going in with a horse who has questionable but potential stamina, rather than one certain to get the trip but lacking a turn of foot.
I would be sorely tempted to try to make a bit of history with this filly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There’s a horse I believe will win the Derby easily this year. The trouble is that it probably won’t run.
This horse is Minding.
Looking at the Derby, a maiden winner is heading the betting and some promising but far from solid horses sit in behind.
Minding looked on of the best Guineas winners for a while and the 2000 Guineas runners from this season are no exactly crying out as Derby certainties.
Bookmakers go 5/2 with a run for Minding, so you get our money back if she doesn’t run. I feel the fillies may be better than the colts at middle distances this year and Minding would be far from a forlorn hope with her weight allowance in mediocre looking year for the Derby.
Cape Verdi had a go back in 1998 but didn’t cut it as favourite. I feel Minding looks a better type than her for the Epsom race though. I don’t see any issues with Minding and you are better going in with a horse who has questionable but potential stamina, rather than one certain to get the trip but lacking a turn of foot.
I would be sorely tempted to try to make a bit of history with this filly.
ps I have had a bet on Minding at 25/1 for the Arc De Triomphe. She is as low as 8/1 with some firms.
I can’t see why she is 25/1 and Jack Hobbs less than that after his awful show.
Minding Arc De Triomphe 25/1 (Bet365) you know it makes sense as Del Boy used to say
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
There’s a horse I believe will win the Derby easily this year. The trouble is that it probably won’t run.
This horse is Minding.
Looking at the Derby, a maiden winner is heading the betting and some promising but far from solid horses sit in behind.
Minding looked on of the best Guineas winners for a while and the 2000 Guineas runners from this season are no exactly crying out as Derby certainties.
Bookmakers go 5/2 with a run for Minding, so you get our money back if she doesn’t run. I feel the fillies may be better than the colts at middle distances this year and Minding would be far from a forlorn hope with her weight allowance in mediocre looking year for the Derby.
Cape Verdi had a go back in 1998 but didn’t cut it as favourite. I feel Minding looks a better type than her for the Epsom race though. I don’t see any issues with Minding and you are better going in with a horse who has questionable but potential stamina, rather than one certain to get the trip but lacking a turn of foot.
I would be sorely tempted to try to make a bit of history with this filly.
That’s all you will be getting Steve – A refund 😉
It must be highly unlikely that they wont have colts with chances in the Derby and they would look and feel like absolute mugs if one of them was beaten into 2nd place by Minding.
That’s all you will be getting Steve – A refund
It must be highly unlikely that they wont have colts with chances in the Derby and they would look and feel like absolute mugs if one of them was beaten into 2nd place by Minding.
I doubt they will have the balls to run but I wouldn’t mind a side bet that Minding is better than any of the middle distance colts in the yard.
US Army Ranger heads to a very weak looking renewal of the Chester Vase and I doubt we will learn much about him there.
Main opposition seems to be stable mate Port Douglas and his form has more holes than a colander. Port Douglas also sports first time Cheek-Pieces and a Tongue-Tie (Air Force Blue anyone?)
For now US Army Ranger looks the worst value favourite in Derby history in winning an awful looking maiden on gutters in Ireland. The runner up was stuffed next time in maiden company and US Army Ranger is rated just 97 at the moment, so needs to find a fair bit of improvement.
Aidan has said the colt is still green and he is concerned about how he will cope on the turns at Chester.
Looking at the entries for the Dee Stakes on Friday Idaho, Beacon Rock and Cook Islands are the three from the O’Brien yard who look likeliest. They finished in the order given when 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Ballysax and it was Idaho who looked to possess the most pace of the three that day. I had the latter two pegged more as St Leger types and am surprised that US Army Ranger wasn’t in the Dee Stakes and the others in the Chester Vase over further. Only Idaho appeals to me of those three and I feel he may yet be Aidan’s Dante horse this year.
The entries for the Lingfield Derby Trial look similar to the Chester meeting in terms of O’Brien runners and that indicates to me that they don’t have a lot of strength in depth. The Marmite might be spread quite thin here and we saw last year that even the trial winners Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro were well out of their depth and thumped in the Derby.
Outside of Aidan’s yard we have Midterm and the two Guineas runners Massaat and Galileo Gold perhaps heading to Epsom but there are stamina questions about both. Foundation has plenty to prove going to the Dante now, after his easy Craven conqueror Stormy Antarctic was out with the washing, only followed in by flopping favourite Air Force Blue and Foundation’s old sparring partner Marcel, who won the Racing Post Trophy but you would have needed the Hubble Telescope to spot him in the Guineas.
I would have hoped Aidan would have learned that you don’t win Derby races with boats and I don’t see how any of last year’s barges enhanced their values in the Derby. They simply proved what most of us knew going in, and that was their status as Sllllooowww horses.
We will see what the trials throw up but I am not holding my breath looking at the entries.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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