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Harzand strikes me as appalling value at 8/1. In addition, he spread a plate and has his foot in a bucket of ice at the moment.
Connections have him rated as 60-40 in terms of lining up for the race.
Plenty reason for me to avoid him.
Deauville is out to 20/1 and that looks worrying to me.
Ulysses may be a superstar in time based on breeding but this is a tough ask, even in a below par year, I would have him over Harzand all day at similar odds though. I am sure Harzand is much more of a St Leger horse.
I feel Wings Of Desire should improve most and I am backing him to wear down Cloth Of Stars in the final furlong today.
Good luck everybody.
Just a thought on Ulysses and whether the novel will prove a portent for today:-
“Think you’re escaping and run into yourself. Longest way round is the shortest way home.”
― James Joyce, Ulysses
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Stately, plump Buck Mulligan came from the stairhead, bearing a bowl of lather on which a mirror and a razor lay crossed.
though the name may rather have been after the Alfred Lord Tennyson poem:
” …..my purpose holds
To sail beyond the sunset, and the baths
Of all the western stars”[viz all the Sea the Stars progeny] ? ;o)
Much more likely, wit, as you say. I was unaware of the Tennyson poem (not that I have read Joyce’s classic!).
The horse looks to have excellent balance, which will stand him in good stead. The race will go to an improver (that probably goes without saying), and I’d trust Stoute to know what is needed.
Given the horse’s breeding, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the other runners at the start make at least an attempt to raise a hoof and touch a forelock.
Michael Tabor has just said he believes US Army Ranger is their best chance and then Idaho is their second best.
Regarding Minding, he stated that they would be looking at The Arc as a long-term target.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m on WOD and Maasaat. Nothing really shone in the trials apart from The Gurkha who really SHOULD be running (I’m over it now I promise!!!) but I think the Dante was easily the best race and I think WOD did really well to win considering his lack of experience and the likelihood that he will improve for further as the rest of his family do. My only worry is the tacky ground. Maasaat has probably the best form and has form on the ground. My worry with him is the trip obviously. I don’t fancy the Bolger horse at all nor many of Aidan’s. Idaho would need to start now and USAR is all about what he has done at home not what he has done at the track. I like Deauville the most out of his. I have huge respect for Sir Michael and I think Ulysses will be top class one day but not just yet. For me he is a King Edward horse and would have run there if Midterm hadn’t flopped. Andre Fabre is the greatest trainer alive in my opinion so he has to be respected but I don’t think this one is one of his best – though he may not need to be.
To be honest there are several who COULD win it but I am hoping class will prevail and that my two will battle it out."this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Already raised the white flag for Algometer.
I seriously expected him to contract to around 16/1. The fact you can get 40/1 would suggest he is about to run a shocker. Has he had all four legs in ice buckets?
Well I was on all the other Sea The Stars colts bar the winner! I guess he does handle the track and what a way to find out.
Best horse in race was easily US ARMY RANGER, was at least 15 lengths down and lost position. Derby field should be 10 horses maximum imo, unfair when there 16 runners and half of them are just making numbers up. US was held up losing positions going around all the donkeys.
Annoying result. I have lost the plot recently and on first visual impression fancied harzand but clearly I’m falling into the trap that it’s easy to fall into in big races- overanalysing it.
Is HARZAND something of the forgotten horse here? 25/1 too big?
He has beaten IDAHO with COOK ISLANDS and MOONLIGHT MAGIC miles back!!
Does he just need soft ground or is it the Aga Khan factor or what ?
Surely with all these horse falling by the wayside he must merit consideration.
Form held up with Idaho!!!
Great to see the Aga khan have another Derby winner!!
With US ARMY RANGER it reminded me of dancing brave when he was second in his derby, clearly the horse has a huge amount of ability and must be a big player in races like the King George and Arc.
Stamina looks the winner’s forte and the usual Arc ground and pace ought to suit very well
I think the ground helped Harzand today. I’d expect US Army Ranger to turn the tables on faster ground.
I actually think sometimes these things like Forums are a bad thing
Basically a lot about being a gambler is just trusting your gut instinct
When you are going on forums and tossing ideas around and so on you can end up confusing yourself… like this whole thing about the winner not handling the track… can anyone give a specific horse that didn’t win an oaks or derby because it didn’t handle the track?
Another load of old cobblers is the benefit of the draw
In future I will be putting more store in visual impressions and not overanalysing too much with garbage about speed ratings, breeding, trainers comments and so on
I cant stand horse races like that!!! It annoys me so much when you dont get a fair effort!
Once again, we have people criticising the jockey of the second just because he came from the back. I believe once the sectional times come out we will see it was actually jockeys on the front end that rode poor races. Although as I suggested beforehand, Port Douglas was deliberately sacrificed – deliberately going a pace too fast for his own good for the benefit of Ballydoyle’s favoured horses who were held up.
US Army Ranger will probably be further back than at Chester (tracked pace/stable companion in Vase), may be in mid-div this time unless stable companions set out to deliberately make an overly strong pace – in which case Ryan (and Jamie on Deauville) may settle in the second half with Wings Of Desire
Ryan deliberately held US Army Ranger out the back because he knew those ridden prominently would probably follow Port Douglas by going too fast for their own good – too fast too soon. Three of the first four came from the second half of the field. Ryan got there in time and – whether through ability or inexperience – did not pass his rival. Harzand going away again in the final 50 yards. Strangely enough, Coolmore tactics contributed to their own defeat, beaten by the real out and out stayer (what a shame :lol: ).
Given the way this race was run – an overly strongly run race on a soft surface – (and an inexperienced runner-up who’s still learnng the game) imo the best horse won.
Idaho did well considering ridden more to the fore than those who finished around him, bit better than distance beaten suggests. That said – US Army Ranger and to a certain extent Harzand (given a stamina test) probably have more scope for improvement than the third. Be surprised if Idaho is not St leger bound (winner won’t run).
Value Is EverythingSpot on Ginge. It reminded me a bit of when Light Shift won the Oaks and Peeping Fawn got there a furlong out but couldn’t go past. Harland outstayed the runner-up. Idaho ran much better than I thought and I think WOD ran well on ground that wouldn’t have suited. The rest were nowhere.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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