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Robin Of Navan is available at as high as 10/1 for the French Derby, if anyone feels Cloth Of Stars can land the Epsom race and pay a compliment to the runner up to Andre Fabre’s colt last time.
I noticed one or two in this thread who felt Robin Of Navan my be favourite for the French race but that lies with John Gosden’s Foundation who will have his form evaluated by Wings Of Desire and Deauville on Saturday. The cautionary word on Foundation is that conditions in France seem set to be similar to the ones he struggled on in the Craven at Newmarket.
Trainer says Robin Of Navan needed his reappearance but to me he’s an exposed sort, others likely to improve past him Steve. That said 10/1 seems to over estimate his chance a little (6 and 7/1 in places).
Where as although Cloth Of Stars has had more races than you’d expect of an improver, he’s only just learnt to settle. So would not be surprising if he ends up quite a bit better than his old sparring partner.
imo The thing about the Craven form was the weather rather than ground. Some horses don’t seem to put it all in when the rain is torrential. Also Foundation’s reappearance, might be a race to ignore if it isn’t actually chucking it down at off time. Has plenty of other form on a soft surface.
Value Is EverythingHarzand price now in silly territory. Two wins on heavy and the ground isn’t likely to be close to that on Saturday. Looked outpaced in the Ballysax and his eventual win appeared to owe more than a little to the runner up throwing the race away.
…and the ground is drying out for Harzand too.
4pm today. Good to soft. Soft in places.
Harzand was outpaced early on in the Ballysax. I thought he did pretty well to get back in contention in the later stages, but who knows how it would have played out on better ground. And it didn’t sound as though they thought he’d be suited by Epsom at all – which would concern me more if I were thinking of backing him.
Maybe they’re wishing they’d gone down the French route given the conditions over there!
Similarly to Ginger I think it is pretty much a given that one of the O’Brien team will lead the field. Port Douglas from Deauville would be my guess but having said everyone knows Spencer is pretty much a law unto himself. I can’t see any reason to set a false pace so as Ballydoyle probably won’t mind too much which of theirs wins it might be unwise to let them get away. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Moonlight Magic wanted to replicate his Derrinstown run and sit third. Interestingly, those three potential leaders wouldn’t have wanted the rain so will they struggle to get home? After the front three I can see it being a bit of a battle for the tracking positions. Personally, I wouldn’t want to see Algometer out of the five as I don’t really see him making up ten lengths in the straight. Hopefully, he has enough early pace. A decent early position is probably at least as important to Ulysses who has had a pretty easy time on the front end of maidens. If he is allowed to drift back his race might be run very quickly.
Netbet have Wings of Desire at 8/1 but knowing them it’s probably for next years Kentucky Derby
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Netbet have Wings of Desire at 8/1 but knowing them it’s probably for next years Kentucky Derby
That made me laugh.
I can’t make head nor tail of this Derby. I was on Midterm months ago but then he flopped at York and damaged his pelvis so I’m not exactly brimming over with good luck here.
I wouldn’t be surprised if US Army Ranger falls by the wayside. I know it’s happened before but it’s not common for such unexposed horses to rock up at Epsom. And I like Wings Of Desire, but not sure he’ll be good enough here. I might wait for Churchill Downs next year. 😉
I have backed Port Douglas and Deauville (each way because I have commitment issues). Port Douglas was only a matter of inches behind US Army Ranger at Chester yet he’s almost four times the price. And Deauville I have stamina doubts over, but I figured if Wings Of Desire does end up coming in and Deauville stays, he might tail him again.
This looks like a weak Derby and there’s no Golden Horn in the field. More than anything I’m just interested to see how it all pans out.
No runner in this year’s Derby field has form up to being an average Derby winner. But imo there are several with potential so could yet improve in to an average Derby winner or possibly better than that. On form so far it is not a good Derby, that might be the case afterwards, but possible it may yet be a good one.
Value Is EverythingSky Bet going 1/5 first 5. Hills still 1/5 first 3. Beware the handful they are best price about.
Well Skiffle was a disappointment for me today but I think it might be worth sticking with Godolphin with Cloth of stars.
Quite an experienced horse which I think will be an advantage in what is likely to be a rough race. Also you clearly need to stay the trip and stay it well based on today’s evidence. Plenty of stamina in his pedigree
Also surely Godolphin have to win the race at some point?!
Not convinced Moonlight magic will fully get the distance so this may be their best hopeSky Bet going 1/5 first 5. Hills still 1/5 first 3. Beware the handful they are best price about.
According to oddschecker, Hills are top price about 10 horses in tomorrows field Stilvi, next best of the 22 bookies is 7. Why is that a bad thing?
Each way bettors have loads of bookies giving good value to punters wanting an each way bet, particularly Sky Bet and that’s great.
Hills prices might not be as good for each way punters, but not everybody is an each way punter.
Why should all bookmakers bet the same way? If bookmakers bet differently then it increases overall value.
Hills are trying to attract more win only backers by betting to a lesser over-round, which they can only do by lessening the value of place betting.
Bookmakers betting to smaller over-rounds is actually in the punters favour.
Personally, I wish there were more bookmakers betting the way Hills are.
Value Is EverythingSorry to sidetrack the thread.
At the time of writing I believe William Hill were top price on just five horses. Now, of the horses at 20/1 or under Sky Bet are top price on 7 horses, the same as William Hill.
Each to their own but most people do not back in the way you do. Most people would rather back a couple each-way rather than five or more horses win only. Most people I believe would be pretty foolish to be choosing to back with the only firm offering standard each-way terms.
I suspect rather than offer something different Hills feel they get away with screwing their less clued up punters.
There is simply no comparison in offering 1/5 odds 1,2,3,4,5 and 1/5 odds 1,2,3
It’s a total no brainer getting two extra chances of a place, versus slightly better odds.
The Derby is open this year but there are plenty donkeys in there who are far more likely to be 5th than first. In general, outsiders don’t win the Derby and it’s perverse to defend William Hill here. Old Billy Hilly would be turning in his grave at these tight jokers.
On the Derby itself, I have to be concerned about Moonlight Magic after Turret Rocks and her woeful effort today.
Jim Bolger’s filly earned a Racing Post Rating of just 35 today, some 75 short of her rating. Checking Jim Bolger’s recent form shows a worrying amount of his horses running two and three stone below their RPR marks.
Jim said he was confident today but his filly was hopeless. That’s a major concern for me tomorrow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Tough race…especially with all the runners it will probably get a little messy. US Army Ranger looks an out and out Derby horse, has the best jock in world on and will surely see this out much stronger than the rest of the field. 1K on at 7/1
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